Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 101738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/17:12:30Z
B. 29 deg 05 min N
066 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2905 m
D. 40 kt
E. 164 deg 082 nm
F. 241 deg 063 kt
G. 160 deg 053 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3049 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. E27/30/20
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 16:57:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 154 / 18NM

[curtadams]

What is their altitude?

The plane is at 700mb, or about 10,000 ft. Conversion factor is 0.9 for that level.

But the conversion is quite variable for that far up, isn't it? Plus she's starting to look subtropical with the front interaction. I hope we get some dropsondes.

[CrazyC83]

409
SXXX50 KNHC 101744
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 18 KNHC
1731 2951N 06515W 03049 0022 143 073 092 084 074 03111 0000000000
1731. 2952N 06513W 03047 0023 144 075 094 080 075 03111 0000000000
1732 2953N 06512W 03049 0027 146 075 100 068 075 03117 0000000000
1732. 2954N 06510W 03048 0031 147 073 096 070 074 03119 0000000000
1733 2956N 06509W 03048 0032 150 072 094 072 073 03121 0000000000
1733. 2957N 06507W 03048 0036 150 072 094 074 072 03125 0000000000
1734 2958N 06506W 03047 0039 147 071 096 080 071 03128 0000000000
1734. 2959N 06504W 03047 0041 146 068 088 082 069 03129 0000000000
1735 3001N 06503W 03050 0044 147 068 092 078 068 03135 0000000000
1735. 3002N 06501W 03048 0047 147 068 098 076 068 03136 0000000000
1736 3003N 06500W 03047 0049 144 067 098 078 068 03137 0000000000
1736. 3004N 06458W 03049 0052 146 068 106 074 068 03141 0000000000
1737 3005N 06457W 03047 0053 146 066 104 080 067 03141 0000000000
1737. 3007N 06455W 03050 0056 148 065 106 082 066 03146 0000000000
1738 3008N 06454W 03046 0058 149 063 102 080 064 03144 0000000000
1738. 3009N 06452W 03049 0061 145 058 100 080 060 03151 0000000000
1739 3010N 06451W 03047 0062 143 054 098 072 055 03150 0000000000
1739. 3012N 06449W 03050 0063 142 055 098 078 057 03154 0000000000
1740 3013N 06448W 03048 0064 142 057 096 082 057 03153 0000000000
1740. 3014N 06446W 03048 0065 146 058 096 082 059 03154 0000000000

[Solaris]

recon just found 976 mb (7 kts) central pressure and max wind of 96 kts.

so, imo a strong cat 1 close to the cat-2-borderline with 975 mb cp and 80 kts max surface winds.

[marcane_1973]

Updated forecast I am rewriting. Now predicting a Cat 4.

The way this storm looks that is very doubtful. She is about to hit her peak soon.

[Thunder44]

[JonathanBelles]

wow a 20mph jump!

[WindRunner]

Factor at 10,000 feet/700 mb is .9 in eyewall, .85 in inner core, and .8 in outer rainbands IIRC.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 101738
XXAA 60177 99291 70661 07996 99976 27025 15003 00712 ///// /////
92479 24621 24503 85219 21624 32008 70886 14014 16506 88999 77999
31313 09608 81712
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2910N06608W 1716 MBL WND 17002 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29
003 976705 WL150 14503 078 =
XXBB 60178 99291 70661 07996 00976 27025 11850 21624 22745 15816
33722 15436 44696 13409
21212 00976 15003 11879 28502 22850 32008 33696 15507
31313 09608 81712
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2910N06608W 1716 MBL WND 17002 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29
003 976705 WL150 14503 078 =

[Scorpion]

Wow 96 kts eh? Guess that was quite a premature statement. Pressure hasn't dropped much though.

[Solaris]

i wouldn't call it a cat-2 cane. just a strong cat-1 close to the borderline of cat-2. cp still a little too high and winds of other quadrants too low

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
200 PM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TOWARD BERMUDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING BERMUDA. A WIND GUST TO 57 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
THE COMMISSIONER'S POINT AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA.

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...29.2 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Thunder44]

[Brent]

90 mph at 2pm.

[WindRunner]

Pasch put out the advisory a little early . . .

[Scorpion]

Why 80 kts? Recon supports 86 kts?

[Thunder44]

i wouldn't call it a cat-2 cane. just a strong cat-1 close to the borderline of cat-2. cp still a little too high and winds of other quadrants too low

All you need is one small area of winds. They use the MAX wind in the advisories, so you use the max wind the plane reports back.

[WindRunner]

i wouldn't call it a cat-2 cane. just a strong cat-1 close to the borderline of cat-2. cp still a little too high and winds of other quadrants too low

What do the winds in other quadrants have to do with anything? The winds are the max winds located anywhere in the circulation, so if they exist, that's the intensity, no matter what the rest of the storm is like.

And the reason this wasn't upgraded at 2pm was that Pasch put it before the data came in.

[CrazyC83]

Why 80 kts? Recon supports 86 kts?

Must have come in too late.

[Derek Ortt]

Why are they using 80% of 700mb? Are there dropsondes that I have missed?