Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[lester]

isn't it time to change the title of the thread?

i guess...

[Trugunzn]

This track would bring the northeast quad of the destructive core right over hong kong.

Landfall winds of 155mph! With gusts of 189mph!

[cycloneye]

isn't it time to change the title of the thread?

Why I have to change it now as it's not a SuperTyphoon yet.

[JonathanBelles]

jtwc says 150 mph

[Gorky]

Isn't JMA the official body though?

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS calls for further intensification of this typhoon. As do most of the models...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 2/M16.html

[benny]

I'm really mad at the JMA. They make this system look weaker than it is. They are misleading Hong Kong in thinking this system won't be so strong. I mean you have to admit this system has stronger winds that 100 mph.

They have a known bias in underestimating these systems. It has to do with the modified Dvorak scale that they use for typhoons I think.

What a nasty cyclone. Looks like it will make a hard right sometime then come close to Hong Kong. yipes. Even if the shear is increasing an accelerating Cat 2 could bring a lot of effects... especially storm surge if the bathymetry is correct...

[Coredesat]

The JMA seriously needs to rethink the way it estimates intensities, or hand over its duties to, say, the JTWC (like that'll ever happen). If you ignore the JTWC advisory, this would be the best-looking Cat 2 I've ever seen.

[cycloneye]

jtwc says 150 mph

JMA is the official agencie that makes the forecasts in that part of the world.

[senorpepr]

Officially around 103KT.

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 13.8N 115.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.3N 114.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
45HF 161800UTC 19.5N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 171800UTC 23.3N 115.9E 290NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[HURAKAN]

jtwc says 150 mph

JMA is the official agencie that makes the forecasts in that part of the world.

Then the title will remain "Typhoon Chanchu."

[Coredesat]

Correction: If you ignore the JTWC advisory, this would be the best-looking Cat 3 I've ever seen.

[senorpepr]

The JMA seriously needs to rethink the way it estimates intensities, or hand over its duties to, say, the JTWC (like that'll ever happen). If you ignore the JTWC advisory, this would be the best-looking Cat 2 I've ever seen.

I don't know... I'd rather have my advisories coming from a degreed meteorologist who is specialized in tropics, like someone from the JMA, than someone with a limited meteorology and tropics background like JTWC forecasters.

[CHRISTY]

Watch this loop by CIMSS!

Link

[benny]

Watch this loop by CIMSS!

Link

Wow. Shrinking eyewall, intensifying convection.. nice depiction. That's a powerful sucker. I side with JTWC on this one. They can have all the degrees they want at JMA they just underdo it. Now that I think about, I think JMA used an old version of the wind/pressure curve that was found to be antiquated recently... I'm not a WPac historian though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the JTWC in if that eye clears out this will be a cat5. Its time for the people of china and hong kong to take this seriously,. The JMA sure the heck is not.

In one more thing I don't care who offical I go by the data.


I try to better my self by looking at the data and making my own choices.

[stormtruth]

The JMA seriously needs to rethink the way it estimates intensities, or hand over its duties to, say, the JTWC (like that'll ever happen). If you ignore the JTWC advisory, this would be the best-looking Cat 2 I've ever seen.

I don't know... I'd rather have my advisories coming from a degreed meteorologist who is specialized in tropics, like someone from the JMA, than someone with a limited meteorology and tropics background like JTWC forecasters.

You know it is stronger than what the JMA is saying tho.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would hope so.

[senorpepr]

The JMA seriously needs to rethink the way it estimates intensities, or hand over its duties to, say, the JTWC (like that'll ever happen). If you ignore the JTWC advisory, this would be the best-looking Cat 2 I've ever seen.

I don't know... I'd rather have my advisories coming from a degreed meteorologist who is specialized in tropics, like someone from the JMA, than someone with a limited meteorology and tropics background like JTWC forecasters.

You know it is stronger than what the JMA is saying tho.

It's probably a little stronger than what the JMA is saying, but not that much and it's definately not as much as the JTWC is saying. I would agree with JMA that this is a category three typhoon, but it's probably more than just 103KT.

[cycloneye]

Mike I ask you as you know a lot about the tropics in that part of the world so I will put you in the hot seat.

Do you think Chanchu will reach SuperTyphoon status?