Tropical Storm Beryl

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[cheezyWXguy]

hahahahahahahaha
thank you Noles

[Derek Ortt]

models were initialized at 50KT, must have been a change from the release provided earlier in the thread

[KWT]

The center is still underneath that convective mass, the center isn't being exposed, all your seeing on the visable is the southern section of the broader circulation left without convection, but the cente ritslef is further north in that mass of convection.

Looking like a 55mph hurricane as I suspected earlier though its possible the NE contains some 60mph winds

[cheezyWXguy]

im gonna guess 65mph winds in the NE quad

[Hurricaneman]

Could it become a hurricane, I sure hope not

[abryant.ma]

here's the new models against the RGB.



westward shift??? we'll find out at 5:30

[bkdelong]

here's the new models against the RGB.

Do you have a link to the KMZ file that's producing that?

[wxwatcher91]

The center is still underneath that convective mass, the center isn't being exposed, all your seeing on the visable is the southern section of the broader circulation left without convection, but the cente ritslef is further north in that mass of convection.

Looking like a 55mph hurricane as I suspected earlier though its possible the NE contains some 60mph winds

50kts = 60mph

NHC doesnt use 55mph (right )

[Derek Ortt]

55 m.p.h. would be 45KT. 45KT is used for both 50 and 55 (even though 50KT is closer to 55 m.p.h. than 60

[bkdelong]

Not to mention a Cat 1 is 75mph or greater. 55mph is the midrange for a TS.

[cpdaman]

looks like this has the potential to surprise a few folks on the long island and s.e mass coasts

last couple hours show IMO good strengthening prob near 65 mph


good thing it only has another 2-3 hours over sst above 80

[Thunder44]

982
WHXX01 KWBC 191854
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM BERYL (AL022006) ON 20060719 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060719 1800 060720 0600 060720 1800 060721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.9N 73.5W 37.2N 73.4W 38.3N 72.9W 39.3N 71.2W
BAMM 35.9N 73.5W 36.9N 73.8W 38.1N 73.8W 39.6N 72.4W
A98E 35.9N 73.5W 37.3N 73.0W 38.6N 71.6W 40.1N 69.2W
LBAR 35.9N 73.5W 37.2N 73.1W 38.8N 72.4W 40.6N 70.5W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 53KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800 060724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.9N 67.7W 43.4N 56.0W 40.2N 48.2W 35.6N 49.3W
BAMM 41.7N 69.7W 46.8N 59.7W 49.4N 47.3W 47.9N 36.1W
A98E 42.2N 64.9W 45.4N 53.7W 43.3N 40.4W 36.9N 31.6W
LBAR 43.1N 66.7W 46.5N 54.0W 42.9N 41.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 45KTS 35KTS 22KTS
DSHP 49KTS 45KTS 35KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.9N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 34.5N LONM12 = 73.7W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 73.3W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 85NM RD34SE = 85NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
They changed it 50kts now. Unless they find stronger winds, should be 60mph at 5pm.

[marcane_1973]

All my fellow surfer dudes enjoy those waves. That is the biggest story with this weak storm. If you live up north don't worry this storm is now entering cooler waters. Even if it does make more of a west turn it will be nothing but a little rain and wind. You will have been in much more worse weather conditions in a bad late afternoon severe summer thunderstorm than this beryl of laughs. It is nice however that we have got 2 named storms in for the month of July so far. Conditions will not be right for a Hurricane to develop for a while it seems. Dry air and all this sheer aloft in the atmosphere is tearing everything up. Just look at that so called vigorous wave that came off of Africa. It has went POOF.

[KWT]

hmmm, marcane, its a 60mph TS, its not quite as weak as you are maming it out to be, granted its not going to cause that many problems it would appear it could stil lgive some floooding and if it were to make landfall your stil llooking at gusts close to hurricane status i'd guess.

[terstorm1012]

All my fellow surfer dudes enjoy those waves. That is the biggest story with this weak storm. If you live up north dont worry this storm is now entering cooler waters. Even if it does make more of a west turn it will be nothing but a little rain and wind. You will have been in much more worse weather conditions in a bad late afternoon severe summer thunderstorm than this beryl of laughs.

the rain is quite unwelcome in this part of the world on northward. we've had moooooooooorrrrrre then enough.

i'm hoping the front that just passed here last night pushes beryl out to sea.

[Trugunzn]

[wxwatcher91]

even so the NHC uses the following:

25kts = 30mph
30kts = 35mph
35kts = 40mph
40kts = 45mph
45kts = 50mph
50kts = 60mph
55kts = 65mph
60kts = 70mph
65kts = 75mph
70kts = 80mph
75kts = 85mph
80kts = 90mph
85kts = 100mph
90kts = 105mph
95kts = 110mph
100kts = 115mph
and so on...

right?

[HouTXmetro]

So the chances of this thing slamming into NY is increasing? Based on the new model output?

[terstorm1012]

its only one model, the rest are headed out to sea.

i think given the upper level pattern beryl will brush the cape and head out to sea. and the water near shore is pretty cold. trust me i was just down there. icy cold.