Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Damar91]

I guess it all boils down to are there going to be any ridges forming in the next 7 days that would push Helene westward. If not, then the answer where she is going should be pretty obvious. Storms have to have some kind of mechanism to keep them moving westward. Will she find one?

[bvigal]

Have any of you giving opinions read the 11am discussion? There is a ridge already, read what they say about it. The track uncertainty is discussed at length, and the synoptic factors given - not just "feelings". NHC still the best of the best information and analysis, and when they clearly state there is high level of uncertainty, that is not reason to imply they are somehow 'off' on their predictions.

[Damar91]

Have any of you giving opinions read the 11am discussion? There is a ridge already, read what they say about it. The track uncertainty is discussed at length, and the synoptic factors given - not just "feelings". NHC still the best of the best information and analysis, and when they clearly state there is high level of uncertainty, that is not reason to imply they are somehow 'off' on their predictions.

Well, I'm not sure exactly to whom that was directed, but, everyone I'm sure realizes that there is a ridge now, that part is clear. The part that isn't clear is will there be a ridge to support a westward movement in the future 5-7 days. Noone is implying that the NHC is off on their predictions. The models,however, seem to be in lala land, because they have this moving NW already and it is still moving west. Not to mention the fact that the "center" of Helene is way open for discussion.

[stormchazer]

Agreed, there is a ridge. It appears that the models are over-playing the weakness. Ivan is probably a recent example of the models continiously wanting to re-curve a system early.

The key here is that even if the turn is delayed, when it does turn, it is still likely to be in the North Atlantic. Ivan was in the GoM where the only place it could go was in to the US or Mexico. I think that the turn will just happen later then the models show but still east of the SE Coast.

[curtadams]

What an enormous storm! Doesn't even fit on the floater anymore! Diameter is up to 15 degrees. I know it's mostly outflow, but still, that's about 1000 miles.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Have any of you giving opinions read the 11am discussion? There is a ridge already, read what they say about it. The track uncertainty is discussed at length, and the synoptic factors given - not just "feelings". NHC still the best of the best information and analysis, and when they clearly state there is high level of uncertainty, that is not reason to imply they are somehow 'off' on their predictions.

I for one never said they were off their predictions, but rather that the models are.

I think it really boils down to the storm being weaker and more ill defined, than the models have been predicting. They are having a hard time getting a good feel for Helene, as the NHC notes.

[gatorcane]

Have any of you giving opinions read the 11am discussion? There is a ridge already, read what they say about it. The track uncertainty is discussed at length, and the synoptic factors given - not just "feelings". NHC still the best of the best information and analysis, and when they clearly state there is high level of uncertainty, that is not reason to imply they are somehow 'off' on their predictions.

I for one never said they were off their predictions, but rather that the models are.

I think it really boils down to the storm being weaker and more ill defined, than the models have been predicting. They are having a hard time getting a good feel for Helene, as the NHC notes.

I interpret their past 2 discussions as they are becoming much more uncertain. Remember just yesterday there seemed pretty condident it was curving at 45W....now it is still moving West and so quickly, you just can't expect a storm to make a turn so quickly.

[Damar91]

Ok, I have to ask. Is it possible, because of a storms size, and/or strength, to create it's own steering currents? Only serious replies please.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

*** I think it really boils down to the storm being weaker and more ill defined, than the models have been predicting. They are having a hard time getting a good feel for Helene, as the NHC notes. ***

That is why this is probably happening, as opposed to creating it's own environment. That usually only happens with strong systems (usually greater than a cat 3).

[Bonedog]

as I posted on the other page.. I think it will follow the Gloria Trac maybe a little north of it. The LI Express is a pretty good track also. This is my opinion only, no real basis is synoptics. I do think the ridge will hold her to just north of the islands then the curve will start bump into the troughs on the east coast and ride north northeast and graze the northeast around cape cod then run into the CMs.

[Damar91]

Looking at the WV loop, it shows a pretty strong ridge developing just behing the current trough. Is that forecast to move east, potentially keeping Helene moving west?

[CrazyC83]

I'm also sensing an Edouard(96)-like track here, in that it will recurve late, just sparing land. Although I could see anything from an Ivan to a Helene(88)-like track eventually.

[Brent]

This will defintely recurve, a massive trough(for Mid-September) is projected to move off the U.S. East Coast mid week next week, so I don't see this staying west through the Caribbean or going to the Gulf. The worst thing I can see is a close call, but not a direct hit for the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, and I think that is unlikely too.

[Damar91]

Normally, I would call for a definite recurve, but looking at the US water vapor loop, there is an area of high pressure that seems to be pushing the trough in question farther north than the previous ones that pushed Florence and Gordon out to sea. Does anyone else notice that, or I'm I all alone here?

[dixiebreeze]

Uncertainty reigns for Helene. It will be a shocker (to me) if she drastically recurves into fishing territory. It's huge storm and by the weekend she ought to look like a 'cane. Be a blessing if she could fish.

[Lowpressure]

Ok, I have to ask. Is it possible, because of a storms size, and/or strength, to create it's own steering currents? Only serious replies please.

That scenario is most of the time associated with an intense cane, or at least a large established cane.

[drezee]

Ridge seems to be building W


24 hours ago:



now:

[AJC3]

Looking at the WV loop, it shows a pretty strong ridge developing just behing the current trough. Is that forecast to move east, potentially keeping Helene moving west?

1) The current eastern CONUS trough should drop ESE and split off the weaker western nose of the ATLC ridge, causing it to retrograde back westward toward the GOMEX. This should cause Helene to acquire an increasing northward component of motion, first toward the WNW and then eventually NW.

2) It's the second longer wave trough currently digging into the western CONUS that should eventually slam the door on any ideas that Helene might have about getting close to the U.S. mainland. By days 6-7 there is what can only be described as a complete and utter flattening of the mean mid to upper level flow over the western ATLC north of 20-22N.

I truly think the only question with Helene will be how much of miss...big or small...will there be w/r/t the NE Caribbean islands.

[Windtalker1]

As fast as she's moving, she could be in the NE Caribbean by then and curve up through eastern Cuba

[x-y-no]

I truly think the only question with Helene will be how much of miss...big or small...will there be w/r/t the NE Caribbean islands.

I don't disagree with any of your anaysis except that I still can't entirely rule out an impact on the leeward islands. I will agree that a miss, either big or small, is by far the most likely scenario.