Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

113
SXXX50 KNHC 101904
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 26 KNHC
1851 2932N 06620W 03048 5112 022 013 158 140 014 02986 0000000000
1851. 2931N 06618W 03050 5114 022 008 160 136 010 02986 0000000000
1852 2930N 06616W 03050 5114 360 006 156 136 007 02987 0000000000
1852. 2930N 06614W 03048 5116 337 005 160 128 006 02982 0000000000
1853 2930N 06612W 03047 5118 297 005 166 114 005 02981 0000000000
1853. 2930N 06610W 03047 5115 277 007 164 096 009 02982 0000000000
1854 2929N 06608W 03046 5119 261 009 164 104 010 02977 0000000000
1854. 2928N 06607W 03052 5119 242 011 160 114 012 02983 0000000000
1855 2926N 06606W 03047 5119 239 014 158 116 015 02979 0000000000
1855. 2925N 06604W 03048 5118 237 016 156 116 016 02981 0000000000
1856 2924N 06603W 03047 5118 235 017 158 112 018 02980 0000000000
1856. 2923N 06601W 03047 5116 231 021 156 118 023 02982 0000000000
1857 2921N 06600W 03050 5115 231 026 152 116 027 02986 0000000000
1857. 2920N 06558W 03046 5112 228 033 154 110 036 02984 0000000000
1858 2919N 06557W 03051 5109 234 041 158 102 042 02993 0000000000
1858. 2917N 06555W 03046 5106 235 043 156 100 043 02991 0000000000
1859 2916N 06554W 03049 5101 233 045 158 092 046 02998 0000000000
1859. 2915N 06552W 03048 5097 233 046 158 092 047 03001 0000000000
1900 2913N 06551W 03046 5091 230 047 160 092 048 03006 0000000000
1900. 2912N 06550W 03051 5085 228 048 158 092 048 03016 0000000000

[marcane_1973]

She looks even worse now. She has the look of when dry air gets into the core. The pressure should be starting to rise soon and seems her weakening phase has already begun. Unless she can get her act together tonight she might just be a strong tropical storm when she hits Bermuda.

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

701
URNT12 KNHC 101910
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/18:52:40Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
066 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2892 m
D. 50 kt
E. 307 deg 095 nm
F. 044 deg 072 kt
G. 300 deg 028 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 1724:00 Z
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE BKN CLDS BLO
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR

[cycloneye]

701
URNT12 KNHC 101910
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/18:52:40Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
066 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2892 m
D. 50 kt
E. 307 deg 095 nm
F. 044 deg 072 kt
G. 300 deg 028 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 1724:00 Z
SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE BKN CLDS BLO
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR

They sat it has a poor radar presentation.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure dropped a little more to 975 (can't tell if there is a wind adjustment).

[CrazyC83]

Is the 975 correct or does it need to be adjusted downward?

[wxman57]

Looks like they found a max of 72kts in the NW Quad. So they would also be winds reaching hurricane force on the western side too.

With the storm moving at about 12kt, that is to be expected with an 80-85kt storm. It matches up well with the 96kt on the NE Quad.

That would be incorrect. Forward speed of the hurricane is not added to the measured wind velocity. The wind velocity is ground-relative, so the speed of the hurricane is already taken into account.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 101914
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 27 KNHC
1901 2911N 06548W 03045 5080 220 049 154 096 051 03016 0000000000
1901. 2910N 06547W 03048 5075 217 055 148 104 056 03024 0000000000
1902 2908N 06546W 03048 5070 218 065 148 104 066 03028 0000000000
1902. 2907N 06544W 03051 5065 222 069 140 106 069 03037 0000000000
1903 2906N 06543W 03047 5058 225 067 134 108 069 03039 0000000000
1903. 2905N 06542W 03048 5054 223 069 128 104 070 03045 0000000000
1904 2904N 06540W 03048 5049 222 071 128 098 073 03051 0000000000
1904. 2903N 06539W 03049 5045 222 073 126 096 073 03055 0000000000
1905 2901N 06538W 03046 5040 222 075 116 102 076 03057 0000000000
1905. 2900N 06536W 03049 5035 221 073 102 102 075 03066 0000000000
1906 2859N 06535W 03047 5030 223 073 102 102 074 03068 0000000000
1906. 2858N 06534W 03048 5025 223 070 110 098 072 03075 0000000000
1907 2857N 06532W 03048 5020 225 068 108 098 069 03079 0000000000
1907. 2855N 06531W 03048 5015 228 069 100 100 070 03084 0000000000
1908 2854N 06529W 03048 5010 227 067 098 098 068 03089 0000000000
1908. 2853N 06528W 03048 5007 227 066 098 098 066 03092 0000000000
1909 2852N 06527W 03049 5003 227 065 092 092 065 03096 0000000000
1909. 2850N 06526W 03048 0001 228 066 094 094 067 03100 0000000000
1910 2849N 06524W 03048 0005 228 065 094 094 066 03104 0000000000
1910. 2848N 06523W 03048 0009 230 064 094 094 065 03108 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane winds on the SE side as well...76kt reported...despite its poor look, I still think it is gaining strength.

I think it will go down at 974mb. The surface winds were 5kt so it is a coin toss which way to go.

[dwsqos2]

UZNT13 KNHC 101910
XXAA 60199 99295 70662 07996 99975 27603 11505 00727 ///// /////
92467 25205 10007 85210 22012 70891 17056 88999 77999
31313 09608 81852
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 2951N06620W 1856 MBL WND 11006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11
010 975862 WL150 12006 075 =
XXBB 60198 99295 70662 07996 00975 27603 11850 22012 22743 19656
33697 16456
21212 00975 11505 11925 10007 22894 10514 33888 10522 44878 11016
55862 11026 66697 29505
31313 09608 81852
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 2951N06620W 1856 MBL WND 11006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11
010 975862 WL150 12006 075 =

975 mb; surface winds of 5 knots.

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Hurricane winds on the SE side as well...76kt reported...despite its poor look, I still think it is gaining strength.

I think it will go down at 974mb. The surface winds were 5kt so it is a coin toss which way to go.

975mb seems to be accurate.

[WindRunner]

Looks like they found a max of 72kts in the NW Quad. So they would also be winds reaching hurricane force on the western side too.

With the storm moving at about 12kt, that is to be expected with an 80-85kt storm. It matches up well with the 96kt on the NE Quad.

That would be incorrect. Forward speed of the hurricane is not added to the measured wind velocity. The wind velocity is ground-relative, so the speed of the hurricane is already taken into account.

I believe that's what he is saying . . . the winds are at 96kts FL on one side and subtract 12kts for the forward storm motion on that side, and another 12kts for the countering of it on the other side, and you get 72kt FL winds.
At the surface, it's 85kt winds, -12 for that side, -12 for the other side, or ~61kt surface winds on the western half.

I believe I have that right, correct?

[cycloneye]

293
SXXX50 KNHC 101926
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 28 KNHC
1911 2847N 06521W 03049 0013 230 063 096 088 064 03114 0000000000
1911. 2845N 06520W 03047 0016 227 060 096 086 060 03114 0000000000
1912 2844N 06519W 03049 0019 230 057 096 086 058 03120 0000000000
1912. 2843N 06517W 03048 0022 231 057 096 086 057 03121 0000000000
1913 2842N 06516W 03049 0025 232 058 092 090 058 03125 0000000000
1913. 2840N 06515W 03047 0029 232 057 094 078 058 03127 0000000000
1914 2839N 06513W 03048 0032 232 054 098 076 055 03131 0000000000
1914. 2838N 06512W 03047 0035 229 052 088 088 054 03133 0000000000
1915 2837N 06510W 03050 0037 227 051 084 084 053 03138 0000000000
1915. 2835N 06509W 03046 0040 227 052 094 094 052 03137 0000000000
1916 2834N 06508W 03048 0043 223 047 084 084 049 03143 0000000000
1916. 2833N 06506W 03049 0044 220 045 090 090 047 03144 0000000000
1917 2832N 06505W 03047 0045 221 047 092 092 048 03144 0000000000
1917. 2830N 06504W 03049 0048 221 048 092 092 049 03148 0000000000
1918 2829N 06502W 03048 0049 222 050 094 094 051 03148 0000000000
1918. 2828N 06501W 03047 0052 221 051 096 094 051 03150 0000000000
1919 2827N 06500W 03048 0054 221 049 096 092 050 03154 0000000000
1919. 2825N 06458W 03048 0055 222 047 098 092 047 03155 0000000000
1920 2824N 06457W 03048 0058 223 048 102 092 048 03156 0000000000
1920. 2823N 06456W 03049 0058 225 048 106 092 048 03158 0000000000

[WindRunner]

No, generally the winds aren't rounded for the adjustments. If it isn't 10kts+, the vast majority of the time the pressure isn't changed.

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

072
SXXX50 KNHC 101934
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 29 KNHC
1921 2822N 06454W 03048 0059 229 050 106 088 051 03159 0000000000
1921. 2820N 06453W 03048 0061 230 051 102 082 051 03160 0000000000
1922 2819N 06451W 03047 0063 228 049 104 078 050 03161 0000000000
1922. 2818N 06450W 03049 0063 225 049 106 076 050 03163 0000000000
1923 2817N 06449W 03047 0064 222 055 106 068 056 03162 0000000000
1923. 2815N 06447W 03051 0065 222 057 104 070 058 03167 0000000000
1924 2814N 06446W 03046 0066 222 052 098 070 053 03163 0000000000
1924. 2813N 06445W 03046 0068 220 050 100 068 050 03165 0000000000
1925 2812N 06443W 03053 0076 217 050 112 058 052 03180 0000000000
1925. 2813N 06441W 03048 0075 219 052 108 064 053 03174 0000000000
1926 2815N 06442W 03046 0068 217 052 110 058 052 03166 0000000000
1926. 2817N 06442W 03048 0067 215 054 108 056 055 03166 0000000000
1927 2819N 06442W 03047 0066 214 055 110 058 055 03164 0000000000
1927. 2821N 06442W 03049 0065 216 056 106 068 057 03165 0000000000
1928 2823N 06442W 03044 0064 214 055 102 068 057 03158 0000000000
1928. 2826N 06442W 03049 0062 216 054 094 076 055 03162 0000000000
1929 2828N 06442W 03048 0060 216 055 090 086 055 03159 0000000000
1929. 2830N 06443W 03049 0060 214 054 098 080 054 03160 0000000000
1930 2832N 06443W 03047 0059 212 053 098 078 054 03157 0000000000
1930. 2834N 06443W 03050 0058 210 053 102 076 053 03159 0000000000

[Thunder44]