Tropical Storm Beryl

marcane_1973 · #761 Postby **marcane_1973** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:Take a look at a WV loop. The upper low SE of Beryl is moving NW very rapidly, pushing a pool of very dry air into Beryl's SE quadrant. I think Beryl is near peak now at 60-65 mph max winds. Jet max is pushing east toward Beryl's NW quadrant - a big squeeze play. Still think it's going to make landfall over SE Massachusetts tomorrow night rather than pass by Cape Cod to the southeast. But it will be no match for most of the winter storms they get there.

Yeah we get summer thunderstorms with bigger cloud tops than that. People in Massachusetts will be out on piers and on the beach walking around like it is just any other summer night.

#762 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:37 pm

19/2345 UTC 36.9N 73.3W T3.5/3.5 BERYL -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD is with the Air Force sat estimate of 3.5/3.5.

#763 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:49 pm

With colder cloud tops popping up near the center, I think she has 1 more shot at making hurricane status....maybe by the 2am or 5am Advisory. By tomorrow afternoon, I believe we should see the weakening phase really take place.

f5 · #764 Postby f5 » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:52 pm

she doesn't have the kind of fuel KAT and RITA had

cheezyWXguy · #765 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:53 pm

well duh

...if she did shed be a cat 2/3 by now

cheezyWXguy · #766 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:54 pm

eye think I see something!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2-l.jpg

#767 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 8:58 pm

cheezywxman wrote:eye think I see something!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2-l.jpg

i think its a glitch

#768 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:03 pm

cheezywxman wrote:eye think I see something!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2-l.jpg

Just a break in the convection north of the center with some warmer low clouds showing through. It IS the center, but it's just exposed because the storms to the northwest and north died out. You can see it better here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl9.jpg

HurricaneHunter914 · #769 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:07 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

She may have lost some convection, but overall she still looks really good.

cheezyWXguy · #770 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:08 pm

Either way that makes it looks a heck of a lot better organized...if the new burst to its east can rap around the center we could see a good jolt of strength in the 11pm advisory

Thunder44 · #771 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:11 pm

skysummit wrote:With colder cloud tops popping up near the center, I think she has 1 more shot at making hurricane status....maybe by the 2am or 5am Advisory. By tomorrow afternoon, I believe we should see the weakening phase really take place.

I don't think this convective burst doing much to intensify the system much. Just to sustain it more. I suspect just a 2 or 3 mb drop im pressure and maybe a wind increase to 65mph or 70mph. We'll see what recon finds later.

#772 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:15 pm

19/2345 UTC 36.9N 73.3W T3.5/3.5 BERYL -- Atlantic Ocean

WELL, WELL, WELL!!!

#773 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:15 pm

3.5 means?

#774 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:16 pm

fact789 wrote:3.5 means?

65 MPH

HurricaneHunter914 · #775 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:18 pm

Now that she actually has some convection over her center, I think they might upgrade her to a 65 mph TS possibly 70 or even maybe Hurricane Status.

#776 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:19 pm

would that show in the 11 pm?

cheezyWXguy · #777 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:19 pm

I think the 11pm is gonna 65 and depending on how much the convection improves it will get to 70-75mph at 5am

Derek Ortt · #778 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:20 pm

the recon data showed WEAKENING this afternoon, as FL winds DECREASED from 57KT to about 52KT during the flight

This has almost certainly peaked, Lyons is correct regarding that aspect

#779 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:21 pm

Ok my forecast.... it's just an ameture forecast. After looking at everything this is what I have come up with.

I expect Beryl to pick up in forward spead to about 10mph. Modest Strengthening has occured near the center but, looking at the latest satelite images the northern side has lost some convection but, probably only temporarily.

Looking at the current steering flow 250-850mb and water vapor imagry, it appears that the shortwave that is going to meet up with the storm in about 12 hours or so is not as strong as it once was. Mainly the Atlantic Ridge steering Beryl right now. I expect that Beryl will reach hurricane strength with in the next 12 hour but, then weaken to tropical storm force and gain extra-tropical status in 24-36 hours. Not much more to say right now... .maybe this will pan out who knows... :wink:

CIMSS 850-250mb steering flow
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

WV Loop
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Please keep in mind this is my first Forecast.

#780 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 9:30 pm

OK people this system has to average an angle of movement of more than 25 degrees to clear the Cape...it is moving probably 15 at best right now...

Tropical Storm Beryl

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