Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[cycloneye]

443
SXXX50 KNHC 102035
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 35 KNHC
2021 3034N 06534W 03047 5005 132 066 086 086 066 03092 0000000000
2021. 3033N 06536W 03050 5009 131 068 090 090 068 03091 0000000000
2022 3031N 06537W 03047 5013 129 068 098 098 069 03085 0000000000
2022. 3030N 06539W 03047 5016 129 067 094 094 068 03082 0000000000
2023 3029N 06540W 03049 5020 127 069 100 100 070 03079 0000000000
2023. 3028N 06541W 03048 5026 128 070 104 104 071 03073 0000000000
2024 3027N 06543W 03047 5031 128 069 106 106 069 03066 0000000000
2024. 3025N 06544W 03050 5035 128 069 102 102 071 03065 0000000000
2025 3024N 06546W 03047 5040 128 073 102 102 074 03057 0000000000
2025. 3023N 06547W 03047 5047 128 072 104 104 072 03051 0000000000
2026 3022N 06549W 03049 5053 129 069 100 100 070 03047 0000000000
2026. 3020N 06550W 03049 5059 125 068 106 106 068 03040 0000000000
2027 3019N 06552W 03047 5065 121 066 104 104 067 03033 0000000000
2027. 3018N 06553W 03048 5070 121 061 118 118 063 03029 0000000000
2028 3016N 06555W 03047 5076 119 060 122 122 060 03022 0000000000
2028. 3015N 06556W 03049 5082 117 063 128 118 064 03018 0000000000
2029 3014N 06558W 03046 5088 115 062 134 118 063 03009 0000000000
2029. 3012N 06559W 03049 5092 115 060 138 114 061 03007 0000000000
2030 3011N 06601W 03047 5096 116 054 136 118 056 03001 0000000000
2030. 3010N 06602W 03049 5099 113 042 148 110 046 03000 0000000000

[dwsqos2]

684
UZNT13 KNHC 102035
XXAA 60207 99303 70658 11505 99987 25809 09057 00620 ///// /////
92567 22203 11081 85302 18803 12577 70955 11200 13069 88999 77999
31313 09608 82025
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 20
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 3039N06591W 2029 MBL WND 10074 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 12075 986708 WL150 09562 082 =
XXBB 60208 99303 70658 11505 00987 25809 11850 18803 22728 12805
33707 12600 44697 10400
21212 00987 09057 11980 09563 22972 10063 33964 09576 44956 10076
55943 11086 66930 11080 77920 11082 88892 11575 99882 12074 11875
11579 22860 12074 33850 12577 44697 13068
31313 09608 82025
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 20
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 3039N06591W 2029 MBL WND 10074 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 12075 986708 WL150 09562 082 =

987 mb; surface winds of 57 knots; MBL winds of 74 knots.

[Thunder44]

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 10, 2006


...Florence getting closer to Bermuda...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.9 north...longitude 66.2 west or about 185 miles...
300 km...south-southwest of Bermuda.

Florence is moving toward the north near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue into Monday. The center
of Florence is expected to pass very near Bermuda on Monday
morning. However...tropical storm force winds are already
affecting Bermuda. A wind gust to 59 mph was recently reported
at an elevated weather station at the commissioner's point on
Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Florence is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Florence is expected to intensify to a category two
hurricane as it passes Bermuda.

Florence remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles...415 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves are likely along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island.

Florence is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8
inches over Bermuda...with possible maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions... including strong
rip currents...are affecting the Bahamas and are beginning to affect
portions of the East Coast of the United States and the Canadian
Maritimes. See statements from local Weather Service offices for
details on coastal conditions.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...29.9 N...66.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...975 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster brown/Pasch

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 102044
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 36 KNHC
2031 3008N 06604W 03048 5103 110 036 148 110 038 02996 0000000000
2031. 3007N 06605W 03046 5106 115 032 138 114 032 02991 0000000000
2032 3005N 06606W 03048 5110 120 030 134 116 031 02988 0000000000
2032. 3004N 06608W 03050 5114 121 025 132 116 027 02986 0000000000
2033 3002N 06609W 03046 5118 121 022 142 114 023 02979 0000000000
2033. 3001N 06610W 03050 5120 113 019 146 114 021 02980 0000000000
2034 2959N 06611W 03047 5122 109 015 146 118 017 02976 0000000000
2034. 2958N 06612W 03046 5122 113 011 144 120 012 02974 0000000000
2035 2956N 06612W 03050 5123 114 010 140 120 010 02977 0000000000
2035. 2954N 06613W 03049 5124 106 009 142 116 010 02975 0000000000
2036 2953N 06614W 03049 5125 072 005 138 122 007 02975 0000000000
2036. 2951N 06614W 03045 5126 036 001 138 126 003 02970 0000000000
2037 2949N 06614W 03049 5122 303 003 142 118 004 02977 0000000000
2037. 2948N 06615W 03049 5125 314 006 140 118 009 02974 0000000000
2038 2946N 06617W 03046 5125 325 012 136 124 014 02971 0000000000
2038. 2945N 06618W 03051 5123 320 019 144 110 022 02979 0000000000
2039 2944N 06620W 03046 5119 318 022 140 118 023 02978 0000000000
2039. 2943N 06621W 03048 5116 314 026 138 120 030 02983 0000000000
2040 2941N 06623W 03048 5113 310 029 144 118 029 02985 0000000000
2040. 2940N 06624W 03048 5109 308 030 144 108 032 02989 0000000000

VDM comming.

[Thunder44]

[hurricanefloyd5]

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2006



the satellite appearance of Florence has not changed appreciably
since this morning. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
reported only a 1-2 mb decrease in the minimum central pressure from
12 hours ago. However...they found a peak flight level winds of 96
kt...which is stronger than was observed overnight. The question
remains as to how much of these winds are reaching the surface.
Dropsonde data thus far suggests that the reduction factor is
between 80 and 85 percent from the 700 mb flight level winds...a
little lower than the Standard 90 percent. Therefore...the initial
intensity is set at 80 kt.

The inner core is somewhat ragged-looking on satellite imagery and
reconnaissance observations do not indicate a well developed
eyewall. Nonetheless...the intensity guidance indicates some
additional strengthening...likely to a category 2 hurricane before
the center nears Bermuda in about 12-24 hours. Afterwards...
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs should gradually
weakening Florence. The hurricane is still forecast to become a
very large and powerful extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours.

The initial motion is 350/11. The track guidance remains in fairly
good agreement for the first 36 hours...although it is little
slower than the previous advisory. After 48 hours...the models
significantly diverge...with the GFDL...NOGAPS...and ECMWF
depicting a more northward track toward Newfoundland. Out of
respect for these models...the official forecast track was
adjusted westward...a little closer to Newfoundland. The GFS and
UKMET remain on the eastern side of the model guidance...with the
GFS much faster than all available guidance. The official forecast
remains near the model consensus and the FSU superensemble...but is
much slower than the GFS. Given the large model spread at days 4
and 5...there is rather low confidence in the forecast at those
time ranges.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/2100z 29.9n 66.2w 80 kt
12hr VT 11/0600z 31.3n 66.1w 90 kt
24hr VT 11/1800z 33.6n 65.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 12/0600z 36.0n 63.6w 90 kt
48hr VT 12/1800z 38.6n 61.6w 80 kt
72hr VT 13/1800z 45.0n 55.0w 65 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 14/1800z 48.0n 45.0w 60 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1800z 48.0n 34.0w 50 kt...extratropical

$$
forecaster brown/Pasch

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 102054
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 37 KNHC
2041 2939N 06626W 03047 5107 307 030 142 118 031 02991 0000000000
2041. 2938N 06627W 03050 5104 301 029 140 120 030 02996 0000000000
2042 2936N 06628W 03046 5100 302 032 138 120 033 02996 0000000000
2042. 2935N 06630W 03051 5096 311 041 126 126 042 03005 0000000000
2043 2934N 06631W 03049 5090 324 044 120 120 049 03010 0000000000
2043. 2933N 06633W 03049 5084 332 052 112 112 056 03016 0000000000
2044 2931N 06634W 03050 5075 333 064 104 104 067 03026 0000000000
2044. 2930N 06636W 03041 5065 324 067 090 090 067 03027 0000000000
2045 2929N 06637W 03049 5057 314 066 084 084 067 03043 0000000000
2045. 2928N 06639W 03051 5053 307 058 090 090 060 03048 0000000000
2046 2927N 06640W 03046 5049 300 052 106 106 054 03047 0000000000
2046. 2925N 06641W 03050 5045 303 053 100 100 053 03056 0000000000
2047 2924N 06642W 03049 5041 304 052 102 102 055 03058 0000000000
2047. 2923N 06644W 03047 5035 309 050 106 106 052 03063 0000000000
2048 2922N 06645W 03048 5029 314 053 100 100 055 03070 0000000000
2048. 2921N 06647W 03046 5025 316 056 102 102 057 03072 0000000000
2049 2919N 06648W 03052 5021 321 055 100 100 058 03082 0000000000
2049. 2918N 06649W 03048 5016 318 054 094 094 056 03083 0000000000
2050 2917N 06651W 03047 5013 319 050 098 098 052 03084 0000000000
2050. 2916N 06652W 03046 5010 321 050 092 092 051 03087 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 102052
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/20:36:20Z
B. 29 deg 51 min N
066 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 50 kt
E. 44 deg 071 nm
F. 127 deg 074 kt
G. 040 deg 041 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E30/35/25
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 76 KT SE QUAD 19:04:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 31 / 9NM

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 102052
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/20:36:20Z
B. 29 deg 51 min N
066 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 50 kt
E. 44 deg 071 nm
F. 127 deg 074 kt
G. 040 deg 041 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E30/35/25
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 76 KT SE QUAD 19:04:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 31 / 9NM

No change in the pressure at the last VDM of this mission.

[Normandy]

Bermuda probably wont see a much stronger Florence....convection is terrible and it looks more like a large gale center than a TC with a strong core

[JonathanBelles]

mission ends at 8pm right?

[Thunder44]

[cycloneye]

230
SXXX50 KNHC 102104
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 38 KNHC
2051 2914N 06654W 03050 5006 327 047 100 100 048 03095 0000000000
2051. 2913N 06655W 03045 5001 323 047 094 094 047 03094 0000000000
2052 2912N 06657W 03049 0003 314 049 096 096 051 03104 0000000000
2052. 2911N 06658W 03052 0004 311 041 100 100 041 03107 0000000000
2053 2909N 06700W 03055 0007 311 041 100 100 041 03113 0000000000
2053. 2908N 06701W 03046 0011 312 044 100 100 045 03107 0000000000
2054 2907N 06703W 03049 0014 313 044 096 096 045 03114 0000000000
2054. 2905N 06704W 03047 0015 313 045 094 094 046 03113 0000000000
2055 2904N 06706W 03048 0017 315 048 090 090 049 03115 0000000000
2055. 2903N 06707W 03049 0019 317 049 086 086 050 03119 0000000000
2056 2901N 06709W 03047 0021 314 046 088 088 046 03119 0000000000
2056. 2900N 06710W 03048 0024 312 048 092 092 051 03123 0000000000
2057 2859N 06712W 03048 0027 312 052 096 090 052 03126 0000000000
2057. 2857N 06714W 03048 0028 314 048 098 080 049 03127 0000000000
2058 2856N 06715W 03050 0031 314 048 100 076 049 03132 0000000000
2058. 2854N 06717W 03047 0034 314 048 096 084 049 03131 0000000000
2059 2853N 06718W 03048 0035 312 048 096 088 048 03134 0000000000
2059. 2852N 06720W 03049 0039 314 047 092 088 047 03139 0000000000
2100 2850N 06721W 03046 0040 313 047 094 080 048 03137 0000000000
2100. 2849N 06723W 03050 0041 312 048 088 088 048 03142 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

I'm going to take a break from posting the maps. Anybody is welcome to take over.

[TampaFl]

Eye on Bermuda radar now.

http://199.172.239.3/gemamet/applet.jsp?displayId=7

[dwsqos2]

087
SXXX50 KNHC 102114
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 39 KNHC
2101 2848N 06724W 03047 0043 311 047 088 088 049 03141 0000000000
2101. 2846N 06726W 03049 0045 313 051 090 080 051 03145 0000000000
2102 2845N 06728W 03047 0047 313 050 092 084 051 03145 0000000000
2102. 2844N 06729W 03049 0048 310 048 092 074 048 03148 0000000000
2103 2842N 06731W 03047 0050 312 047 094 068 048 03148 0000000000
2103. 2841N 06732W 03047 0050 310 047 092 064 047 03149 0000000000
2104 2839N 06734W 03049 0051 311 046 092 064 046 03152 0000000000
2104. 2838N 06735W 03047 0052 310 045 090 068 046 03150 0000000000
2105 2837N 06737W 03050 0053 312 047 086 068 047 03154 0000000000
2105. 2835N 06738W 03047 0055 311 046 084 074 047 03152 0000000000
2106 2834N 06740W 03048 0056 310 045 080 080 046 03155 0000000000
2106. 2833N 06741W 03049 0060 309 046 082 072 046 03160 0000000000
2107 2831N 06741W 03050 0063 309 046 080 080 047 03165 0000000000
2107. 2830N 06739W 03050 0063 306 045 080 080 046 03164 0000000000
2108 2831N 06737W 03042 0057 304 041 082 082 043 03150 0000000000
2108. 2831N 06735W 03051 0055 302 043 082 082 043 03157 0000000000
2109 2832N 06733W 03046 0054 306 045 080 072 045 03151 0000000000
2109. 2832N 06730W 03050 0053 304 044 084 070 044 03154 0000000000
2110 2832N 06728W 03047 0052 299 044 088 066 045 03150 0000000000
2110. 2833N 06725W 03049 0051 301 046 088 066 046 03150 0000000000

[cycloneye]

329
SXXX50 KNHC 102124
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 40 KNHC
2111 2833N 06722W 03047 0050 303 047 088 066 048 03148 0000000000
2111. 2833N 06720W 03049 0049 300 048 090 064 048 03149 0000000000
2112 2834N 06717W 03048 0049 298 048 090 068 049 03148 0000000000
2112. 2834N 06715W 03048 0048 298 047 086 086 047 03147 0000000000
2113 2834N 06712W 03048 0045 295 047 094 074 047 03145 0000000000
2113. 2834N 06710W 03047 0045 297 047 092 070 047 03144 0000000000
2114 2835N 06707W 03048 0043 298 049 090 070 050 03143 0000000000
2114. 2835N 06704W 03048 0043 299 050 092 062 051 03141 0000000000
2115 2835N 06702W 03048 0042 299 050 092 074 050 03140 0000000000
2115. 2836N 06659W 03049 0041 296 049 090 086 050 03141 0000000000
2116 2836N 06657W 03048 0040 294 049 086 086 050 03139 0000000000
2116. 2837N 06654W 03049 0038 290 049 088 088 050 03138 0000000000
2117 2837N 06652W 03048 0036 288 050 088 088 050 03135 0000000000
2117. 2838N 06649W 03047 0035 288 050 088 088 050 03133 0000000000
2118 2838N 06646W 03049 0034 286 049 090 084 049 03134 0000000000
2118. 2838N 06644W 03048 0033 289 050 092 076 051 03132 0000000000
2119 2838N 06641W 03048 0032 287 051 096 074 051 03131 0000000000
2119. 2838N 06638W 03048 0031 288 050 096 078 050 03130 0000000000
2120 2838N 06636W 03049 0030 286 050 096 080 050 03129 0000000000
2120. 2839N 06633W 03046 0029 283 049 096 080 050 03126 0000000000