Tropical Storm Beryl

[Bella]

There is no RI going on. What is leading you to believe that the recon reports of decreasing winds, and decreasing convective activity is wrong?

It's late, it's been a long, long day and I am trying to catch up. I'm seeing that it's headed towards NE. And my mother, sister, and her tiny baby are traveling towards it tomorrow.

So, I may not be fully informed as of yet, but this does not bode well with me.

What's leading me to belive anything is wrong is that I care very deeply about my family and don't want any risk of danger to them.

Make sense?

[Andrew92]

There is no RI going on. What is leading you to believe that the recon reports of decreasing winds, and decreasing convective activity is wrong?

I think she meant Rhode Island, not rapid intensification.

Also, I no longer have even a hunch that Beryl will be a hurricane.

-Andrew92

[HurricaneHunter914]

Derek I think you should apoligize for yelling at Bella like that for no reason.

[Bella]

There is no RI going on. What is leading you to believe that the recon reports of decreasing winds, and decreasing convective activity is wrong?

I think she meant Rhode Island, not rapid intensification.

Also, I no longer have even a hunch that Beryl will be a hurricane.

-Andrew92

Andrew, you're totally correct.

Sorry, Derek, for the misunderstanding. I'm not quite at the point where RI means anything but Rhode Island to me. It will always be home. No hard feelings?

[Hohwxny]

Derek I think you should apoligize for yelling at Bella like that for no reason.

I agree with you...it was obviously a misunderstanding about the acronym...however he must not have fully read the post, as he would have seen "travelling from RI to Tampa" and known it was not referring to rapid intensification.

[Andrew92]

Alright, I'm sure Derek will apologize when he gets his chance, but let's get back to Beryl. Derek made a mistake, but he is human, and I still respect him a lot as a met.

-Andrew92

[Regit]

Alright, I'm sure Derek will apologize when he gets his chance, but let's get back to Beryl. Derek made a mistake, but he is human, and I still respect him a lot as a met.

-Andrew92

I'm wondering if that was really Derek... At the time he made the comment about recon finding lighter winds it was over Georgia. I was confused over the whole thing.

[Bella]

Alright, I'm sure Derek will apologize when he gets his chance, but let's get back to Beryl. Derek made a mistake, but he is human, and I still respect him a lot as a met.

-Andrew92

Agreed...I have always respected him as a met, as well. We have several other similar views on other topics, too. The whole thing is no big deal at all.

Anyway, I'm about to head off to bed, but I'm dying to see where this is in the AM. I'll be lurking, but probably not posting because I'll be at work.

Have a wonderful night, all!

[whereverwx]

The cooler water is really doing it's job. Watch her shrink in this 13 hour loop:

[curtadams]

The cooler water is really doing it's job. Watch her shrink in this 13 hour loop:

You can see the shear starting to blow off the convection too. I'm surprised she's holding up as well as she has (63 mph flight level = 50 mph sea level)

[whereverwx]

Her rainbands are ever so approaching:

[Jim Cantore]

her center is also visible

[Thunder44]

The cooler water is really doing it's job. Watch her shrink in this 13 hour loop:

It's more due to a squeeze play between the shortwave trough approaching from the west and the ridge trying to build from the east. It also looks like that the surface center is starting to decouple from the mid-level center.

[drezee]

OK people this system has to average an angle of movement of more than 25 degrees to clear the Cape...it is moving probably 15 at best right now...

.


You would need better than 35 degrees now...

[drezee]

Beryl looking good this AM...convection is S of the center...


Visible Loop

[wxwatcher91]

latest loop shows some dry air intrusion north of the center

[drezee]

feeder band on Jersey shore now

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[drezee]

The GFDL is singing to MA....

It's too late Baby now...It's too late...Though Beryl did try to miss you...


624
WHXX04 KWBC 201133
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM BERYL 02L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 37.4 73.3 5./ 8.0
6 37.9 73.2 7./ 5.4
12 38.7 73.1 10./ 7.5
18 39.5 72.8 25./ 8.4
24 40.4 72.3 29./ 9.6
30 41.5 71.1 46./14.4
36 43.0 69.3 51./19.8
42 44.6 66.7 58./24.8
48 46.5 63.8 56./28.3
54 48.3 61.4 54./23.3
60 50.0 59.5 47./21.6
66 51.5 55.5 69./29.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Bane]

Derek I think you should apoligize for yelling at Bella like that for no reason.

Derek didn't yell at Bella anywhere in his post, but he definitely misunderstood R.I. was for Rhode Island.

[tailgater]

Outflow on the south side of this storm is impressive.