Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[curtadams]

Is the entire area shown in the satellite above several degrees north and west covered all be Helene??
This thing looks like a beast.

It's mostly her outflow - you can see the feathering and the outward clockwise motion. But it is all produced by her, and the counterclockwise lower cloud vortex is pretty big, if not that big.

[Bgator]

I see a continued west track to, just because of our cruddy internet doesnt mean people dont have there opinions....

[wxman57]

I see a continued west track to, just because of our cruddy internet doesnt mean people dont have there opinions....

You can certainly have your opinions, but without the tools to precisely analyze the center on satellte and calculate speed/heading, you may draw the wrong conclusions from satellite loops. You have to remember that when you look at a satellite image, you're looking at a 3-dimensional column of air that may be 10 miles high. Clouds may be moving in different directions at different levels above the surface, and it's not easy to only follow clouds at the same level to estimate a center position or true movement. The weaker a storm is, the harder it is, too. From what I see on satellite this evening, finding Helene's center won't be hard in the near future.

Even the pros here and at the NHC were disagreeing (not arguing) on the position today. If you can't tell where the center is, you can't estimate movement very well.

[sma10]

I see a continued west track to, just because of our cruddy internet doesnt mean people dont have there opinions....

So if I say that I think Helene's current heading is southeasterly then it needs to be accepted as a valid opinion?

Eveyone can have an opinion, but the validity of that opinion can be called into question when facts get in the way.

[curtadams]

From what I see on satellite this evening, finding Helene's center won't be hard in the near future.

Are you expecting Helene to pop out an eye soon? Right now she looks to be putting up a CDO and once that gets big low cloud analysis is impossible and we'll be limited to an occasional satellite overpass until there's an eye. By the NHC intensity projections we'll be looking at a big bland CDO for a day or two.

[jhamps10]

I've got 2 words to describe the size of this thing.


HOLY CRAP

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest shows that the center has become very organized near 14.0 north/37.8 west. The system looks ot be moving slightly north of due west. The new burst of convection/Cdo looks to be helping the system gain a central core. I expect this thing to bomb into a hurricane in 24 hours...In become a cat3 by 48-60 hours. Yes there is a weakness in the higher lat it go the more chance of a recurve.

[Buck]

The wind field isn't as big as the storm cover... but this thing is huge.

[cinlfla]

What time does the new models come out? I'm looking for the newest nogaps.

[Windtalker1]

Looks like the ONLY WAY Helene has a shot to make it the U.S. if she stays on a pure West movement with no big Northwest wobbles and stays a lot further south than projected and a lot weaker than projected as well. she will then have a pretty good chance of missing the troughs and making it all the way across. By the way has anyone seen any models hinting for a stronger high pressure moving over the East coast of the U.S.??? Until that happens everything should be a fish.

Local Mets in S Florida claim that this front everyone is talking about here is very weak. They claim it will stall in central Florida and fizzle out by Sunday with a "very Strong" High building in West to East next week. South East winds by Tuesday meaning High out to our East.

[sma10]

Looks like the ONLY WAY Helene has a shot to make it the U.S. if she stays on a pure West movement with no big Northwest wobbles and stays a lot further south than projected and a lot weaker than projected as well. she will then have a pretty good chance of missing the troughs and making it all the way across. By the way has anyone seen any models hinting for a stronger high pressure moving over the East coast of the U.S.??? Until that happens everything should be a fish.

Local Mets in S Florida claim that this front everyone is talking about here is very weak. They claim it will stall in central Florida and fizzle out by Sunday with a "very Strong" High building in West to East next week. South East winds by Tuesday meaning High out to our East.

That may be correct. But that high is not going to stretch all the way out to 50W so it's not particularly relevant to Helene.

[Windtalker1]

I disagree...no one at this times knows how far out this high will stretch out to. This could prevent Helene to move on her NW movement.

[cycloneye]

14/2345 UTC 14.4N 38.1W T2.5/2.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

[Normandy]

One thing I notice odd is that Gordon has now movod ENE and is heading off track....it seems as if Gordon is on the N side of a high but i could be wrong

[Weathermaster]

That may be correct. But that high is not going to stretch all the way out to 50W so it's not particularly relevant to Helene

It do not have to stretch, if the front does not move into the Atlantic, then there will be no weakness from the high accompanying the system right now.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I know the models have been wrong before but everyone that I have seen recurves Helen before 60. There would have to be a drastic change for Helen to proceed west bound.

[wzrgirl1]

Yes and there isn't even a hint of a drastic change....nothing at all...with storms such as Andrew, didn't they know pretty much all along that the high would stay put forcing him on a due west track?

[Windtalker1]

One thing I notice odd is that Gordon has now moved ENE and is heading off track....it seems as if Gordon is on the N side of a high but i could be wrong

Maybe he will do a loop LOL....or maybe this high is stretching further west than anticipated. If that's the case and this "strong Front" fizzles by Sunday which local mets in Fl say it will, then maybe this high building in after Sunday won't have to stretch out to 50 to prevent a curve as drastic as everyone is saying.

[Normandy]

One thing I notice odd is that Gordon has now moved ENE and is heading off track....it seems as if Gordon is on the N side of a high but i could be wrong

Maybe he will do a loop LOL....or maybe this high is stretching further west than anticipated. If that's the case and this "strong Front" fizzles by Sunday which local mets in Fl say it will, then maybe this high building in after Sunday won't have to stretch out to 50 to prevent a curve as drastic as everyone is saying.

I dont think Gordon does a loop itll move out, my thing is that this NW turn immediately is suspicious imo....again, I am not saying this is gonna hit the east coast

[Bgator]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...