Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[JonathanBelles]

905
UZNT13 KNHC 102221
XXAA 60227 99301 70662 11506 99974 26600 16512 00730 ///// /////
92461 24000 17510 85202 22417 16014 70878 14832 27007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82210
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 3010N06621W 2214 MBL WND 17510 AEV 20604 DLM WND 17
509 974710 WL150 17011 079 =
XXBB 60228 99301 70662 11506 00974 26600 11875 21800 22850 22417
33707 16234 44698 14432
21212 00974 16512 11881 18008 22868 19513 33850 16014 44813 16512
55698 27007
31313 09608 82210
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 3010N06621W 2214 MBL WND 17510 AEV 20604 DLM WND 17
509 974710 WL150 17011 079 =

[JonathanBelles]

310
SXXX50 KNHC 102254
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 49 KNHC
2241 3038N 06500W 03047 0017 154 071 096 096 071 03114 0000000000
2241. 3041N 06501W 03049 0018 152 070 094 094 070 03117 0000000000
2242 3043N 06502W 03047 0019 151 069 092 092 069 03116 0000000000
2242. 3045N 06502W 03049 0019 151 068 090 090 068 03118 0000000000
2243 3047N 06503W 03047 0019 150 070 090 090 071 03116 0000000000
2243. 3049N 06504W 03047 0020 149 070 086 086 070 03118 0000000000
2244 3051N 06505W 03047 0020 146 070 090 088 071 03117 0000000000
2244. 3054N 06506W 03048 0021 145 070 090 088 070 03120 0000000000
2245 3056N 06507W 03045 0022 144 069 092 086 070 03118 0000000000
2245. 3058N 06508W 03049 0023 143 069 094 084 070 03123 0000000000
2246 3100N 06509W 03047 0024 143 069 090 082 070 03122 0000000000
2246. 3102N 06510W 03049 0025 142 069 090 082 070 03125 0000000000
2247 3104N 06511W 03047 0030 141 069 090 090 070 03127 0000000000
2247. 3106N 06513W 03050 0033 140 068 090 086 069 03134 0000000000
2248 3105N 06515W 03045 0026 141 064 090 082 065 03121 0000000000
2248. 3104N 06516W 03047 0022 138 065 088 088 065 03119 0000000000
2249 3103N 06517W 03047 0019 139 067 088 088 067 03117 0000000000
2249. 3102N 06518W 03048 0016 141 068 092 078 069 03114 0000000000
2250 3100N 06520W 03049 0014 140 067 094 084 068 03113 0000000000
2250. 3059N 06521W 03046 0011 140 065 100 082 065 03108 0000000000

[WindRunner]

You'll have to excuse the markers for now.

Just a quick update to give you an idea of what is happening.

[Thunder44]

The floater has changed position:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 102304
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 50 KNHC
2251 3058N 06522W 03047 0008 141 065 098 080 065 03106 0000000000
2251. 3057N 06524W 03048 0004 139 064 096 092 066 03102 0000000000
2252 3056N 06525W 03046 0001 140 066 096 096 066 03098 0000000000
2252. 3055N 06526W 03048 5002 143 069 096 096 071 03096 0000000000
2253 3054N 06528W 03047 5005 143 072 096 096 073 03092 0000000000
2253. 3053N 06529W 03048 5009 142 072 094 094 072 03090 0000000000
2254 3051N 06530W 03048 5012 142 071 096 096 072 03086 0000000000
2254. 3050N 06532W 03048 5016 140 071 092 092 071 03082 0000000000
2255 3049N 06533W 03047 5019 142 071 098 098 072 03079 0000000000
2255. 3048N 06534W 03047 5022 140 071 106 106 072 03075 0000000000
2256 3047N 06536W 03048 5026 141 071 104 104 071 03073 0000000000
2256. 3046N 06537W 03046 5030 144 068 102 102 068 03067 0000000000
2257 3045N 06538W 03049 5034 144 068 100 100 068 03065 0000000000
2257. 3044N 06540W 03047 5038 144 070 100 100 070 03059 0000000000
2258 3043N 06541W 03047 5042 146 069 098 098 071 03055 0000000000
2258. 3041N 06542W 03048 5046 145 072 094 094 073 03053 0000000000
2259 3040N 06543W 03047 5052 146 071 100 100 072 03045 0000000000
2259. 3039N 06545W 03045 5056 146 072 104 104 074 03039 0000000000
2300 3038N 06546W 03049 5061 147 072 110 110 073 03039 0000000000
2300. 3037N 06547W 03048 5066 144 070 112 110 070 03032 0000000000

[O Town]

Eye on Bermuda radar now.

http://199.172.239.3/gemamet/applet.jsp?displayId=7

Link not working. Internal error.
This is the one I have been looking at.
http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 102257
XXAA 60237 99311 70652 11515 99996 27626 11539 00540 ///// /////
92648 22001 13064 85381 18206 13569 70028 09615 14064 88999 77999
31313 09608 82247
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 29
62626 SPL 3113N06531W 2251 MBL WND 12055 AEV 20604 DLM WND 13564
995708 WL150 11546 082 =
XXBB 60238 99311 70652 11515 00996 27626 11919 21600 22850 18206
33764 14636 44708 11217 55697 09014
21212 00996 11539 11983 11550 22973 12051 33963 12061 44951 12061
55942 12568 66916 13064 77901 13568 88850 13569 99697 14063
31313 09608 82247
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 29
62626 SPL 3113N06531W 2251 MBL WND 12055 AEV 20604 DLM WND 13564
995708 WL150 11546 082 =

996mb and 36kt surface winds, mean boundary winds at 55kts.
Location at 31°13'N 65°31'W - well removed from center.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 102314
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 51 KNHC
2301 3036N 06548W 03049 5072 139 073 104 104 074 03028 0000000000
2301. 3035N 06550W 03045 5080 141 071 096 096 074 03015 0000000000
2302 3034N 06551W 03051 5087 147 063 102 102 065 03015 0000000000
2302. 3033N 06552W 03045 5094 148 056 112 112 060 03001 0000000000
2303 3032N 06554W 03046 5100 146 049 106 106 051 02996 0000000000
2303. 3030N 06555W 03047 5104 149 047 120 120 048 02993 0000000000
2304 3029N 06556W 03050 5106 151 045 126 126 046 02994 0000000000
2304. 3028N 06558W 03046 5109 151 041 138 128 043 02987 0000000000
2305 3027N 06559W 03048 5112 150 037 142 130 038 02987 0000000000
2305. 3026N 06600W 03048 5116 149 035 138 132 035 02983 0000000000
2306 3025N 06602W 03046 5118 148 033 136 132 034 02978 0000000000
2306. 3024N 06604W 03047 5119 145 029 136 132 031 02978 0000000000
2307 3023N 06605W 03051 5120 143 024 138 128 025 02980 0000000000
2307. 3022N 06607W 03045 5123 145 023 134 126 024 02972 0000000000
2308 3021N 06608W 03047 5124 149 022 132 122 023 02973 0000000000
2308. 3020N 06610W 03047 5126 149 018 130 124 019 02972 0000000000
2309 3019N 06612W 03048 5127 143 014 130 124 015 02971 0000000000
2309. 3018N 06613W 03047 5126 155 009 140 120 011 02971 0000000000
2310 3017N 06615W 03047 5125 145 005 150 116 006 02972 0000000000
2310. 3016N 06617W 03049 5124 047 003 148 112 005 02975 0000000000

VDM shortly . . . unimpressive winds for the NW quad.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 102307
XXAA 60237 99306 70658 11505 99984 25613 10558 00645 ///// /////
92542 22212 12581 85276 19215 13583 70934 11604 14569 88999 77999
31313 09608 82300
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 30
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3067N06586W 2304 MBL WND 11575 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13078 983713 WL150 11064 078 =
XXBB 60238 99306 70658 11505 00984 25613 11901 20402 22850 19215
33793 18233 44753 15014 55727 14037 66707 13013 77697 11000
21212 00984 10558 11979 11559 22972 11068 33959 11579 44946 12083
55914 12581 66865 13586 77850 13583 88697 14569
31313 09608 82300
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 30
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3067N06586W 2304 MBL WND 11575 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 13078 983713 WL150 11064 078 =

Max wind band . . . 984mb and 58kts.

FL wind reported at 79mph - surface winds at 67mph - yields conversion factor of .848 from FL . . . looks like the NHC nailed it.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 102324
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 52 KNHC
2311 3015N 06619W 03047 5119 347 005 152 116 006 02978 0000000000
2311. 3013N 06620W 03045 5120 313 010 162 112 012 02975 0000000000
2312 3012N 06620W 03046 5118 306 013 166 106 014 02977 0000000000
2312. 3010N 06620W 03047 5118 290 015 170 098 015 02979 0000000000
2313 3008N 06620W 03049 5118 292 018 170 090 019 02981 0000000000
2313. 3007N 06620W 03048 5116 291 017 166 092 017 02982 0000000000
2314 3005N 06620W 03048 5116 291 020 164 094 021 02982 0000000000
2314. 3003N 06620W 03046 5116 293 022 164 096 023 02981 0000000000
2315 3001N 06620W 03047 5113 293 025 164 100 026 02984 0000000000
2315. 2959N 06619W 03049 5111 287 029 158 106 030 02988 0000000000
2316 2957N 06619W 03047 5108 286 032 156 088 033 02990 0000000000
2316. 2955N 06619W 03047 5104 284 035 160 076 037 02993 0000000000
2317 2953N 06619W 03044 5100 284 040 160 082 041 02995 0000000000
2317. 2952N 06619W 03049 5097 286 044 158 096 045 03002 0000000000
2318 2950N 06619W 03050 5091 289 046 148 120 047 03009 0000000000
2318. 2948N 06619W 03046 5084 287 048 140 122 049 03012 0000000000
2319 2946N 06619W 03047 5078 282 048 140 112 049 03019 0000000000
2319. 2944N 06619W 03049 5073 281 052 134 114 053 03026 0000000000
2320 2943N 06619W 03047 5067 281 053 130 114 055 03031 0000000000
2320. 2941N 06619W 03047 5060 278 059 132 110 062 03038 0000000000

Now heading south on a similar trajectory to which they came into the storm on. They will probably be ascending as soon as they get out of the storm.

[cycloneye]

979
URNT12 KNHC 102332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/23:10:00Z
B. 30 deg 16 min N
066 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2885 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 140 deg 074 kt
G. 055 deg 030 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. E21/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 31
MAX FL WIND 86 KT E QUAD 22:18:30 Z

[WindRunner]

Sorry . . . had a little internet outage there for who knows what reason . . .

SXXX50 KNHC 102334
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 53 KNHC
2321 2939N 06619W 03047 5055 276 061 128 114 062 03043 0000000000
2321. 2937N 06619W 03047 5049 272 064 126 114 066 03048 0000000000
2322 2936N 06619W 03046 5045 270 070 116 106 072 03052 0000000000
2322. 2934N 06619W 03050 5040 271 066 104 104 069 03061 0000000000
2323 2932N 06619W 03048 5035 271 064 110 110 064 03063 0000000000
2323. 2931N 06619W 03047 5031 270 061 106 106 063 03067 0000000000
2324 2929N 06618W 03048 5026 270 060 098 098 060 03073 0000000000
2324. 2927N 06618W 03047 5023 270 066 102 102 068 03075 0000000000
2325 2926N 06618W 03047 5019 274 067 098 098 067 03079 0000000000
2325. 2924N 06618W 03048 5015 276 067 094 094 068 03084 0000000000
2326 2922N 06618W 03049 5011 278 068 084 084 070 03089 0000000000
2326. 2920N 06618W 03049 5007 278 062 080 080 062 03092 0000000000
2327 2919N 06618W 03046 5003 279 066 088 088 067 03094 0000000000
2327. 2917N 06618W 03042 5001 280 062 090 090 064 03092 0000000000
2328 2915N 06618W 03049 0004 279 061 090 090 063 03104 0000000000
2328. 2913N 06618W 03046 0005 280 061 088 088 062 03102 0000000000
2329 2911N 06618W 03047 0004 282 062 072 072 068 03102 0000000000
2329. 2910N 06618W 03045 0009 274 057 068 068 061 03105 0000000100
2330 2908N 06618W 03063 0016 273 059 088 088 060 03130 0000000000
2330. 2906N 06618W 03195 0030 271 062 098 098 062 03277 0000000000

Still strong winds in the southern half of the storm. Plane appears to be ascending now.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 102332
XXAA 60237 99303 70663 11506 99975 27202 10507 00726 ///// /////
92466 24400 10510 85209 21805 13008 70881 15441 03504 88999 77999
31313 09608 82310
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 32
62626 EYE SPL 3027N06629W 2313 MBL WND 11008 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12
505 974719 WL150 11008 082 =
XXBB 60238 99303 70663 11506 00975 27202 11850 21805 22763 17202
33707 16433 44697 15044
21212 00975 10507 11921 11010 22885 13006 33850 13008 44697 03005
31313 09608 82310
61616 AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 32
62626 EYE SPL 3027N06629W 2313 MBL WND 11008 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12
505 974719 WL150 11008 082 =

975mb, 7kt wind in the eye.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 102344
AF303 0406A FLORENCE HDOB 54 KNHC
2331 2904N 06618W 03429 0057 272 058 078 078 059 03537 0000000000
2331. 2902N 06618W 03675 0079 275 055 062 062 056 03806 0000000000
2332 2900N 06618W 03950 0102 278 054 044 044 055 04105 0000000000
2332. 2858N 06618W 04147 0115 281 053 030 030 053 04317 0000000000
2333 2856N 06617W 04341 0112 279 049 016 016 050 04527 0000000000
2333. 2854N 06617W 04543 0129 281 046 004 004 047 04747 0000000100
2334 2851N 06617W 04724 0144 282 048 005 005 049 04943 0000000000
2334. 2849N 06617W 04940 0176 279 050 002 002 050 05192 0000000000
2335 2847N 06617W 05145 0195 277 049 009 009 050 05418 0000000000
2335. 2845N 06617W 05306 0209 276 049 019 019 050 05592 0000000000
2336 2842N 06617W 05499 0226 269 044 025 025 046 05803 0000000000
2336. 2840N 06617W 05638 0237 270 043 041 041 043 05954 0000000000
2337 2838N 06617W 05794 0254 267 039 051 051 041 06126 0000000000
2337. 2836N 06617W 05940 0268 267 038 063 081 039 06287 0000000000
2338 2833N 06617W 06060 0278 267 039 073 089 039 06418 0000000000
2338. 2831N 06617W 06176 0288 270 038 077 095 039 06544 0000000000
2339 2829N 06617W 06312 0293 266 035 085 103 037 06686 0000000000
2339. 2826N 06617W 06392 0298 266 036 089 113 037 06774 0000000000
2340 2824N 06616W 06406 0302 271 039 095 123 039 06792 0000000000
2340. 2821N 06616W 06407 0305 276 039 093 127 039 06796 0000000000

Cruisin' . . . all the way to St. Croix . . .

[WindRunner]

That's a wrap for this one. Next mission scheduled for 10:10pm EDT takeoff . . . T-164 minutes and counting until Flo's final flight.

Of course, if recon was ever that precise . . .

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 10, 2006



...Florence nearing Bermuda...the worst weather is yet to come...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 30.5 north...longitude 66.2 west or about 150 miles...
240 km...southwest of Bermuda.

Florence is moving toward the north near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue overnight with a turn
toward the north-northeast on Monday. The center of Florence is
expected to pass near or just west of Bermuda on Monday morning.
However... tropical storm force winds are already affecting
Bermuda. A wind gust to 58 mph was recently reported at an
elevated weather station at the commissioner's point on Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Florence is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Florence could intensify to a category two hurricane as
it passes Bermuda.

Florence remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles...415 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 975 mb...28.79 inches.

Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves are likely along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island.

Florence is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8
inches over Bermuda...with possible maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions... including strong
rip currents...are affecting the Bahamas and portions of the East
Coast of the United States and the Canadian Maritimes. See
statements from local Weather Service offices for details on
coastal conditions.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...30.5 N...66.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...975 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

[cycloneye]

211
URNT11 KNHC 102352
97779 23484 10276 66200 61000 29040 5867/ /8032
RMK AF303 0406A FLORENCE OB 34
LAST REPORT

The final epilog for this mission.

[Nimbus]

Could we be lucky enough to get a nice slow Eyewall replacement cycle?i

[Sanibel]

I think you are looking at the best of Florence.

Another disrupted 2006 storm.

[conestogo_flood]

Okay, this statement out of Bermuda NWS...

Bermuda is under Hurricane Warning. Florence continues to approach from the south. The center of the hurricane will pass its closest point early Monday morning. Tropical storm force winds will veer south while increasing to hurricane force overnight. Storm surge & destructive waves continue to batter the coast causing beach erosion, especially on the south and east shores. Rain, showers, Tstorms and possible tornadoes are expected.

That would be landfalling water spouts right? How dangerous are water spouts out in Bermuda?