Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[gatorcane]

I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.

I really think it will be a close call for the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[sma10]

I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.

I really think it will be a close call for the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I believe by this time tomorrow Helene will still be moving WNW, but she will have noticeably gained some latitude. By Saturday night, at the latest, she'll cross 20N.

As far as the islands are concerned, Helene may kick up some surf.

[AtlanticWind]

I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.

I really think it will be a close call for the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

I agree , looking at awater vapor loop I think she will continue moving just a little north of west for the next 3 to 4 days, after that your guess is as good as mine. Also the 00z nogaps looks like it might be trending more west.

[AtlanticWind]

The 00z Nogaps at 96 hours keeps Helene under 20 north.

[gatorcane]

Yeah, something is just not adding up. I don't buy the models. I'm just doing some simple satellite analysis and the flow is very strong from E to W where Helene is now...

I wouldn't be surprised NOGAPS and other models keep trending West.

[gatorcane]

The 00z Nogaps at 96 hours keeps Helene under 20 north.

Link?

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_atlantic

[gatorcane]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic

thanks..hmmmm.....is the NOGAPS on to something here?

[fci]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic

thanks..hmmmm.....is the NOGAPS on to something here?

When I look at NOGAPS, it has the storm turning NW and then N.
If I'm looking at the right link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[AtlanticWind]

That is not the 00z nogaps your looking at.

[sma10]

So far, the models seem to still agree in general, but differ quite a bit in timing. As has already been pointed out, NoGaps has a 120hr position still slightly below 20N. Canadian is much faster in its turn showing Helene at about 30N 59W at T120hr. GFS is in between at around 27N 52W. Haven't seen UK yet.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=120


check out this link.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144

Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.

[sma10]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=120


check out this link.

Note how in the NoGaps panel that Helene has reached the western extent of the ridge at 120hr position.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok just to give you a good example of why Helene is not going to affect the United States:

The picture below I have posted with the two circles on it shows us where the 0 degree lines are. Granted this is at the 850mb level but, as you'll see in the next picture after this one why this trough is going to definitely take Helene out to sea.



Now look at 120 Hours from now


We see there that the 0 degree line has dropped much farther south.

Next we'll take a look at the current trough and the amount of westerlies currently coming out into the Atlantic. Helene may end up missing this first trough but, definitely not the second.

Here is the current 300mb wind/heights


Notice that there aren't too many west to east winds to break down the ridge.

Now here is what the trough is going to look that is expected to drive Helene out away from the US.


Ok here we see massive amounts of westerlies pushing off the east coast out into the Atlantic. It's not a matter of maybe the trough will move farther northeast or this or that. It would have to be rare (I could be wrong) for GFS to prog such a trough and it not materialize.

[bob rulz]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=144

Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.

It's also just rounding the western edge of the ridge and there's a huge trough behind that.

[sma10]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=144

Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.

The NoGaps has struggled badly this year and has not had very good verification numbers. We'll see if it pulls a coup.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=120


check out this link.

Note how in the NoGaps panel that Helene has reached the western extent of the ridge at 120hr position.

Yes , it could begin to recurve at that point but it is still 5-6 days out and the pattern could be a little different by then.

[fci]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=120


check out this link.

So was the one I posted a 12 hour old run?

[Tertius]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=144

Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.

Looks to me that if that verifies then that is about the point she will begin lifting northward fairly dramatically, and then eventually NE. Perhaps she gets close to the islands, but after that she is gone. Then again, I'm a rank amateur so what do I know?