Tropical Storm Alberto

[Evil Jeremy]

...Alberto continues to move northward over the central
Gulf of Mexico...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the West Coast of
Florida from north of Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT...0000z...the broad circulation of Tropical Storm
Alberto was estimated near latitude 25.1 north...longitude 87.8
west or about 360 miles...585 km...south-southwest of Apalachicola
Florida.

Alberto is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the northeast is expected during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next 24 hours.

The strongest winds in this tropical storm are well removed from the
center...and extend mainly eastward up to 230 miles...370 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Alberto is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of Cuba...with isolated
totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys through Tuesday.

Repeating the 700 PM CDT position...25.1 N...87.8 W. Movement
toward...north near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 1000 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

[spinfan4eva]

Yeah, pretty low but I dont think the NHC would have put it there if they didnt expect at least 5 percent of the people in these areas to experience the winds.

[CHRISTY]

the GFDL model has alberto at 43kts at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

the GFDL model has alberto at 43kts at landfall.

Finally a reasonable (maybe high) GFDL intensity forecast!!!

[cognosco]

Yeah, pretty low but I dont think the NHC would have put it there if they didnt expect at least 5 percent of the people in these areas to experience the winds.

No. There is a 5% chance someone in that area gets a tropical storm force wind. Big difference.

[CHRISTY]

and the AVN model has it at 36 kts right over tampa.

[Brent]

Yeah, pretty low but I dont think the NHC would have put it there if they didnt expect at least 5 percent of the people in these areas to experience the winds.

No. There is a 5% chance someone in that area gets a tropical storm force wind. Big difference.

Yeah. In other words, not gonna happen.

[curtadams]

The new LLC is obviously merging with the old one but is dragging it NE in the process. You can see the lower end of the pinwheel pop north over the past hour or so.

[wxwatcher91]

convection is closer to the center than it has been in a while though...
what are the chances of convection wrapping around the center before this thing dies?

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 57&start=0

Thread #1

[spinfan4eva]

About that GFDL, Which one are you guys looking at cause 18z shows a 71KT hurricane hitting Appalachicola in 36 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=036hr

[CHRISTY]

on this visible u can see the circulation exposed almost completely....There are some thunderstorms fireing over the north side of the LLC but to me alberto is loseing its battle againest the very unfavorable conditions that its been in since the begining.

here the visible pic...

[MGC]

Does Alberto's circulation appears to be becoming elongated SW-NE? If so, this is a sure sign that the LLC is starting to dissipate. Anyone else notice this?...MGC

[Frank P]

Does Alberto's circulation appears to be becoming elongated SW-NE? If so, this is a sure sign that the LLC is starting to dissipate. Anyone else notice this?...MGC

I posted this at 6:21

From what I have seen on the GOES vis loop the overall system is not moving much if at all... the broad low does see to be elongated SW to NE somewhat... the shear is still pounding the stew out of it, which gives the illusion of a NE motion with the tops of the storms being sheared off to the NE... also one on the mini vortex was also moving to the NE... but as far as I can tell the main circulation of the system is not moving much, or at least is have not beening moving much during the past hour or so

[MGC]

Yea Frank, I noticed your post after I posted. Good Call!....MGC

[Frank P]

It looked stationary to me at the time but the NHC saids north at 9 ... boy, how they figured that out is beyond me... couldn't tell by looking on the sat pix because there is no ........ discernable LLC, just the broad area of low, elongated at that....

MCG this has been one Ugly storm from the get go... and its still Ugly.... but even the ugly ones are interesting at times... Alberto the First, Alberto the Ugly....

[Jim Cantore]

there is no really discernable LLC

you can almost remove "Really" from that sentence

[Frank P]

there is no really discernable LLC

you can almost remove "Really" from that sentence

well there is a low level circulation of clouds devoid of thunderstorms... it just doesn't have a discernable center ... so I guess I could have removed ""really""... so it is written, so it will be done...

[mobal]

Just my thoughts, Alberto will be a rain maker in FL. only.

[JamesFromMaine2]

if it doesn't start moving east soon then I don't think it will be a florida landfall!