Franklin Advisories

johngaltfla · #101 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:23 pm

Ok experts, at what point should we start to trust the model runs? Obviously I think they won't be more accurate until the next recon gets in there, but your opinions are VALUED and would love to know more. Especially since the West Coast of Florida really doesn't need the rain, believe me we don't...

:eek:

#102 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
joseph01 wrote:Wouldn't it be nice to be a fly on the wall at NHC and know exactly what that loopy forcast track is based on?

I agree, I have to admit that I had prepared a track with a curve off to the east like ALL of the dynamic model guidance is indicating and the NHC completely floored me with that loop forecast. I checked every level of the GFS at 12Z and 18Z and can't find it doing anything but taking the storm off to the ENE and out to sea. Can someone point me to a single dynamic model that has it making a loop? The BAMS/BAMM/BAMM are not dynamic models, they assume that current steering level winds will continue for 5 days. The 12Z GFDL dissipated it in 18 hours. The 06Z GFDL brought it south of Bermuda at 5 days. What is the NHC looking at??????

Except for Cindy their track record has been excellent this season so if they say it's going to loop then it's going loop.

#103 Postby **TampaFl** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:46 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
joseph01 wrote:Except for Cindy their track record has been excellent this season so if they say it's going to loop then it's going loop.

wxwatcher91 · #104 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:56 pm

2004-2005 comparison

we are now 45 days ahead of 2004 in terms of named storms.
we are now 19 days ahead of 2004 in terms of hurricanes.
we are now 19 days ahead of 2004 in terms of major hurricanes.

wxwatcher91 · #105 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:33 pm

just a quick fascinating note:

the past two storms have formed on the exact day that the previous one died... of course it could just be the NHC trying not to take attention away from a large threat...

Hurricane Dennis 07/05 - 07/11
Hurricane Emily 07/11 - 07/21
TS Franklin 07/21 - 07/22

jrod · #106 Postby **jrod** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:46 pm

Now Franklin looks like its barely alive. My guess is the other disturbance is interfearing with it. Forget the forecast, I just want to see what happens tommorow.

#107 Postby **Wthrman13** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Wthrman13 wrote:
The BAMS/BAMM/BAMM are not dynamic models, they assume that current steering level winds will continue for 5 days.

I'm pretty sure the BAM models use vertically averaged horizontal winds from the operational GFS forecast fields, which of course will change over the course of the model integration. Thus, I don't think they just assume the same flow will be in place for 5 days straight.

You could be right, I wasn't sure if the BAMs just initialized with the GFS or if they actually considered some forecast changes. But I thought these beta advection models don't really incorporate any physics and they should not be trusted out of the deep tropics in a changing flow pattern.

No, they don't incorporate any physics other than what is brought in implicitly from the GFS flow pattern, and you are right, they aren't great in that sort of scenario.

wxwatcher91 · #108 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:56 pm

jrod wrote:Now Franklin looks like its barely alive. My guess is the other disturbance is interfearing with it. Forget the forecast, I just want to see what happens tommorow.

yeah it does look like it's dying and also like you said, it is probably from that other tropical wave...
also though some tropical systems do lose some convection during the night... we'll have to see what happens tomorrow...
also we will have to watch that other tropical wave for development

well as someone said in another thread, at least Franklin has formed and we got the record

weatherwindow · #109 Postby **weatherwindow** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:13 pm

just an update on the 1933/2005 boxscore.... we are now 2 storms and 18 days ahead of the busiest season in the past 154 years...hang on to your hats..it will be a wild ride

johngaltfla · #110 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:43 pm

weatherwindow wrote:just an update on the 1933/2005 boxscore.... we are now 2 storms and 18 days ahead of the busiest season in the past 154 years...hang on to your hats..it will be a wild ride

That, in and of itself, is an amazing statistic. I can not believe what we are witnessing. I fear many days in August will be spent in a dark, plywood shielded home.

Followed by 30 days behind the wood in September.

This next advisory will be quite interesting. I wonder what the reaction of Floridians will be after the absolute hysteria we saw over Dennis....

:eek:

#111 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

...FRANKLIN VERY NEAR ELEUTHERA AND GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 165 KM... NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRANKLIN IS A SMALL SYSTEM... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

Website · #112 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z FRI JUL 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 76.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 76.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.2N 77.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 77.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 76.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

#113 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:49 pm

Dang, when will forecaster Franklin write an advisory? :lol:

-Andrew92

Website · #114 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:50 pm

#115 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:53 pm

no more loop-de-loop?

#116 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:54 pm

I think we're due for a fish....Franklin always sounded like a fish to me too.

Oh, except that it's causing problems over the Bahamas.

Hopefully not too many.

-Andrew92

kevin · #117 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:54 pm

No more loop of loop.

#118 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:55 pm

looks like they still have it being left behind later while the ridge will build back in

johngaltfla · #119 Postby **johngaltfla** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 9:57 pm

Listening to Radio NHCWX, I wonder what they are wondering...are the forecasts of the center too far north???????

This is one weird season...that's for sure...

#120 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:03 pm

Local met stated that for the next two days TS will move to the northeast. After that, it is very possible he could curve back towards FL. Too early to tell.

Lynn :eek:

Franklin Advisories

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