Hurricane Katrina

[Andrew92]

I'm surprised I'm the first to post this:

000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA.

FORECASTER STEWART



$$


Guys we have Katrina.

[HURAKAN]

FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

makes sense to upgrade now how much is it going to strengthen?

[Thunder44]

I just saw the 12z models before I saw the update. I was thinking an upgrade 11am.

[KWT]

Rocky Islands are reporting windspeeds of 31kts,gusting to 33kts.

it seems to support winds being upgraded,as its in the Nw qaudrant,winds higher in NE quadrant.

[HeatherAKC]

Helllllooooo Katrina! Such a pretty, pretty girlie name. You can't be that much trouble can you????

[Frank2]

The 8 a.m. advisory has the storm moving erratically (though the latitude has increased from 24.0 to 24.4, so more of a northward component), and, looking at the WV loop, is seems that the system is being pulled northward at this time because the ULL has now moved west of the circulation center - how far it continues northwestward (instead of west-northwestward) remains to be seen. However, the TCD did mention the current weakness off the east coast, so, the current northward nudge by the ULL might help to bring Katrina that much closer to the vicinity of this weakness.

Frank

[boca]

Its heading towards Central Florida East Coast unless it changes direction.

[Air Force Met]

...Thought I was the first one since the title was still TD12 at 8am...

Ooops

[Frank2]

Re: boca's post

Yes, this latest northwestward jog makes that more likely, especially since it's latest position puts the center almost due east of Miami.

Frank

[x-y-no]

Yes I was surprised this upgrade didn't happen in the regular 8am advisory.

[boca]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is a Central Florida storm not South Florida its moving NNW and if it turns west it will be north of S FL latitude.

[x-y-no]

Re: boca's post

Yes, this latest northwestward jog makes that more likely, especially since it's latest position puts the center almost due east of Miami.

Frank

Huh? 24.4 N is a full degree south of Miami.

Now I wouldn't be surprised to see the storm track somewhat north of us, maybe as far as Palm Beach County but I also wuoldn't be surprised at a Dade County landfall... depends on how soon the weakness fills in.

[Jevo]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is a Central Florida storm not South Florida its moving NNW and if it turns west it will be north of S FL latitude.

What maps are you looking at.... From my prediction (and a map) 24.5 was Key Wests Latitude last time I looked. This stom has to go 2.5 degrees DUE NORTH before its anywhere out of South Florida Latitude

Lets also take a look at the steering flow over Central Florida at this time

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and the high hasnt even built back in yet... (That brown is the high building back in ) This storm has to move a moderate to strong high pressure ridge whose axis is forecasted to be at 26N approx back to the north to make anywhere north of WPB IMO

[Marilyn]

...Thought I was the first one since the title was still TD12 at 8am...

Ooops

Air Force you will always be the First LOL

[Dean4Storms]

Problem here is that no obs have come in at the surface supporting that these winds are at the surface. I'd rather them be sure that these winds are making it to the surface than to upgrade something that won't even lift a ladies dress!

With all the Bahama islands and ships in that area, someone will report a supporting TS force wind and it will be upgraded, until then there is nothing supporting the flight level winds down to the surface.

Then, don't send the RECON, and wait for someone in the Bahamas or in a ship to report tropical storm winds.

Who said that you don't use all the tools available to determine a storms strength? Surely your not advocating ignoring surface Obs???????????

Recon. is used in conjunction with surface obs. whenever it is possible and especially in developing systems where they happen to be over lots of islands and shipping!

[Thunder44]

Ship Report at 12z:

C6QK S 1200 25.20 -74.70 145 60 90 25.1 -

Location 25.2N 74.70W
Winds: E 25kts

[Jevo]

Ship Report at 12z:

C6QK S 1200 25.20 -74.70 145 60 90 25.1 -

Location 25.2N 74.70W
Winds: E 25kts

nice.. almost a full degree north of the center and 25knts. Nice pull of the Ship Obs

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z WED AUG 24 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 76.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[curtinnc]

Think the next update may be fun... When does Stewart get in the game? And wonder if the ridge and its axis are going to pinwheel a little northward now... seems she is maybe tailing off a little more north of guidance at this point.

Should be intersting to see what the LBAR outlier does on the next run... That thing has been trippin' on this storm...