TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cjrciadt]

I like the LBAR today

[cjrciadt]

Cold cloud tops when you see that gray.

[wxman57]

That was mentioned in the last NHC discussion yes. However it has now developed this significantly for the last three runs in a row after those two runs where it didn't develop at all.

However, the shear is still there, and the GFDL almost certainly doesn't see it, so it is likely in error.

[wxman57]

Cold cloud tops when you see that gray.

Keep in mind that those cold cloud tops are well to the east of any possible low pressure center, perhaps 100 miles east. The lower pressure is near that 2nd cluster of storms to the west.

[cjrciadt]

Cold cloud tops when you see that gray.

Keep in mind that those cold cloud tops are well to the east of any possible low pressure center, perhaps 100 miles east. The lower pressure is near that 2nd cluster of storms to the west.

You're right almost like Tammy with most of the convection on the E. side. I was surprised it became a TD today.

[cjrciadt]

Heat Potential

[wxman57]

You're right almost like Tammy with most of the convection on the E. side. I was surprised it became a TD today.

I'm surprised they upgraded it without either recon, quickscat, or visible loops to confirm an LLC. Looks like a tropical wave to me. Either it'll be sheared apart today or it'll develop a real LLC. We'll see....

[ronjon]

Looks like the 06Z GFDL and the 00Z CMC (along with the UKMET) have the storm track about right. A large ridge will keep the system moving W or W-NW the next 4-5 days. After that things could get real interesting. A strong trough is forecast now to be re-enforcing and sharpening the east coast long-wave trough on Sunday. Both the CMC & UKMET pick up on this & turn the storm N-NE and then NE somewhere south of Cuba. As always, it will be a question of timing. While the CMC has a penchant for over-developing hurricanes - it is not out of the realm of possiblity for a major hurricane to form south of Cuba and roar across Cuba N-NE into S FL or the Bahamas. Everyone in peninsula FL needs to keep a close eye on this soon to be Gamma. The odds strongly favor re-curvature - just a matter of how far west and north Gamma gets prior to this happening. I don't buy the central america track unless this thing really rides south of its projected path the next 4-5 days. I would not entirely rule out a Wilma track, tropical storm Keith (1988) or Hurricane Kate track (1985), although the odds of this storm hitting the panhandle I think are extremely low.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[boca]

Hopefully the cold front that due here Sunday will suppress whatever's down there to stay well south of Florida.

[danman]

holy crappola

[TheEuropean]

I'm surprised they upgraded it without either recon, quickscat, or visible loops to confirm an LLC. Looks like a tropical wave to me. Either it'll be sheared apart today or it'll develop a real LLC. We'll see....

But there was a LLC with Grenada having southwesterly winds last night.

[cjrciadt]

Newest Wind Prob.

[SkeetoBite]

Click for full size:

[george_r_1961]

What I am worried the most is what will happen after 5 days, will the system continue westward or will a cold front turn it northward? No one can answer this question.

Good point Sandy. Been thinking about that myself. Late season can bring rapid unexpected changes to the synoptic pattern; therefore I am not ruling out a Florida threat at this time. If it takes that route I do not believe it will be a major owing to the shear it would encounter. If the depression continues on a westerly track we could be looking at another major hurricane affecting the Yucatan or Central America since this track would keep it over a much more favorable area.

[wxman57]

I'm surprised they upgraded it without either recon, quickscat, or visible loops to confirm an LLC. Looks like a tropical wave to me. Either it'll be sheared apart today or it'll develop a real LLC. We'll see....

But there was a LLC with Grenada having southwesterly winds last night.

Grenada could have had westerly winds for other reasons than an LLC to the north -- thunderstorms in the area, local effects, etc.

[TheEuropean]

Grenada could have had westerly winds for other reasons than an LLC to the north -- thunderstorms in the area, local effects, etc.

Yes, may be. But it happens for several hours and wind shifted to southeast when the depression goes further west. Seems to me like an influence of the depression and not a local effect.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm surprised they upgraded it without either recon, quickscat, or visible loops to confirm an LLC. Looks like a tropical wave to me. Either it'll be sheared apart today or it'll develop a real LLC. We'll see....

But there was a LLC with Grenada having southwesterly winds last night.

Grenada could have had westerly winds for other reasons than an LLC to the north -- thunderstorms in the area, local effects, etc.

There is a Clear LLC there although detached way to the West..But Convection is persistant...Very Persistant...Need to make it at least another 36 Hrs thru shear to be called a Storm...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[P.K.]

However, the shear is still there, and the GFDL almost certainly doesn't see it, so it is likely in error.

Ah ok. I've been looking at the tracks it has been giving rather than the intensities given what the global models have previously been showing. I can't see much from the 12:00am GMT ECMWF run though.

[dixiebreeze]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

[wxman57]

There is a Clear LLC there although detached way to the West..But Convection is persistant...Very Persistant...Need to make it at least another 36 Hrs thru shear to be called a Storm...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm not so sure that there's a "clear LLC", but there does appear to be a weak swirl near 13.8N/63.8W. I would estimate that winds around it may be no more than 15-20 kts, though, and that may be high. Any 30 kt winds are detached and located in that pesistent area of convection to the east. With no convection over an ill-defined center, it does not qaulify to be called a TD at this time. However, it appears the NHC isn't going to let go of it.

I do agree it is a ways away from TS status. Definitely not going to be a "real TS" today, though the NHC may upgrade it regardless.