Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[gatorcane]

the track of the great 1921 hurricane that hit Tampa Bay is likely still IMHO

[Trader Ron]

It's funny how on Monday, some were saying North, yesterday South, today North.

I'll stick with North of Tampa.

I have yet to see any models north of Tampa.

Reading the posts, it seems to me the folks who live in the Tampa area think it's coming their way. The folks in SW florida think it's coming their way.

There are THREE more day's to determine the eventual landfall. Anything can happen

[wxmann_91]

ERC has officially started if it hasn't yet, note rapid warming of cloudtops on the fringes, a developing outer eyewall, and a clearing moat on sat pics. In fact, the latest visible shot shows a very sick Wilma.

EDIT to clarify: Last sentence is compared to a few frames ago. Also, Wilma is still a VERY dangerous hurricane, any weakening should only be temporary and once the outer eyewall contracts it could undergo another period of rapid intensification.

[skysummit]

It's funny how on Monday, some were saying North, yesterday South, today North.

I'll stick with North of Tampa.

I have yet to see any models north of Tampa.

Reading the posts, it seems to me the folks who live in the Tampa area think it's coming their way. The folks in SW florida think it's coming their way.

There are THREE more day's to determine the eventual landfall. Anything can happen

This is natural. It's part of the chemistry. It's like that here too when we're threatened.

[markymark8]

If there is any good news to this monster strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic......Looks like its good that she has strengthened really fast because that means she will weaken alot before landfall. Conditions wont be as they are now once she gets further north and gets influenced with the low. She will inhibit some dry air and shear which should bring her down to a 3. Thank God she wont be a 5 making landfall. The storm surge will be just as bad as Katrina though. That is the bad dealio. This storm has amazed me how fast she has strengthened. she was at 901mbs when I finally went to sleep late last night. I wake up and find out today she is the mean lady of em all in the Atlantic basin with a ptressure of 884 and estimated at 881 right now until recon confirms it. WOW!!!! 3 record breakers this season and I thought sure this season was OVER!!! Boy was I wrong. Looks like Dr. Grays forecast once again is turning out to be right on the money. I hope u all people in Florida take this serious even the snowbirds there playing golf and dont ride this thing out in something not sturdy if she makes landfall near u. The windfield is going to expand BIGTIME since she reached a 5 and will weaken alot. This is another possibly Katrina setup this time for Florida. Sorry guys

[cjrciadt]

ERC has officially started if it hasn't yet, note rapid warming of cloudtops on the fringes, a developing outer eyewall, and a clearing moat on sat pics. In fact, the latest visible shot shows a very sick Wilma.

[joe_koehle]

oh yeah, she looks REAL sick wxman

give me a break.

[tailgater]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm4.GIF
Looks like the ridge over the Atlantic has built westward, I don't know if that was predicted are how long it will last.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

True Ron... but 3 more days to figure out landfall cuts things way to close when it takes 53 hours to evacuate your county from teh beach.

Should we wait another 2 days to be sure where she is going?

If your mom lived on the beach here, would you say, "don't worry, the models all say it is going south of you, just wait a few more days to decide what you should do." ???

-of course we are worried up here... and rightly so. There is a good (not far fetched) possibility that a major hurricane coul dbe greatly impacting our area within 3 days.

For many locally, today is the day to decide what to do and at what point action to leave or hunker down begins -so model watching is in earnest right now. Anyone with any sense will start leaving tomorrow rather than waiting until Friday when there will be nothing but a parking lot on all our highways. IF it comes this way... maybe it won't... but any model trends heading more northerly 3 days out scare the crap out of me! I would much rather be somewhere where the models were trending away from right now! -not towards!

ok... breathing again... now, how to convince Nana to leave her pretty little beach condo... she's sooooo stubborn!

[Brent]

2 questions: How did it go from a 1 to a 5 so quickly?

What is it expected to be when it makes landfall in Florida?

1. VERY warm water and no shear. A PERFECT enviornment

2. Probably Cat 3... maybe a Cat 4, maybe a Cat 2. Intensity is very hard to predict.

[skysummit]

oh yeah, she looks REAL sick wxman

give me a break.

I think I see what he means. the 15:25z visible shows what looks to be dryer air on the northern side of the eyewall. Also, the eye looks to be collapsing on itself and is about to, or is already going through an ERC.

[Weatherfreak14]

by 2pm advisory can this be winds 180mph?

[Rae]

THIS is a sick hurricane?

[Trader Ron]

True Ron... but 3 more days to figure out landfall cuts things way to close when it takes 53 hours to evacuate your county from teh beach.

Should we wait another 2 days to be sure where she is going?

If your mom lived on the beach here, would you say, "don't worry, the models all say it is going south of you, just wait a few more days to decide what you should do." ???

-of course we are worried up here... and rightly so. There is a good (not far fetched) possibility that a major hurricane coul dbe greatly impacting our area within 3 days.

For many locally, today is the day to decide what to do and at what point action to leave or hunker down begins -so model watching is in earnest right now. Anyone with any sense will start leaving tomorrow rather than waiting until Friday when there will be nothing but a parking lot on all our highways. IF it comes this way... maybe it won't... but any model trends heading more northerly 3 days out scare the crap out of me! I would much rather be somewhere where the models were trending away from right now! -not towards!

ok... breathing again... now, how to convince Nana to leave her pretty little beach condo... she's sooooo stubborn!

Who said you should wait TWO more day's? I certainly didn't ! The last models I see, Naples/ Ft Myers is ground zero....where I live.

If I was evacuating, I would leave this afternoon. Just my two cents.
One more thing. I lived on the water during Carol, Connie, Diane, Donna and a few others. So i've been there, done that.

[skysummit]

THIS is a sick hurricane?

That's not the latest image. The 1525 image shows what looks like dryer air on the northern edge of the eyewall. I admit though....it's FAR from sick.

[wxmann_91]

oh yeah, she looks REAL sick wxman

give me a break.

Compared to what she looked like a few frames ago.

[bayoubebe]

2 questions: How did it go from a 1 to a 5 so quickly?

What is it expected to be when it makes landfall in Florida?

1. VERY warm water and no shear. A PERFECT enviornment

2. Probably Cat 3... maybe a Cat 4, maybe a Cat 2. Intensity is very hard to predict.

Thank you very much for your answer.

I know it is a very basic question to some of you, but some of us here(like me) are no weather experts.

[Rae]

That's the latest one from NOAA...I'll check again when it updates. But I have a question. How can dry air make it into the eye wall when there's so much moisture wrapped around it?

[SunnyThoughts]

Everyone in South Fla...please think long and hard about staying put...Even though the winds are forecast to decrease, The surge she is building as we speak...she will take with her. My prayers go out to everyone in the southern half of my state, don't take chances...do what you feel is best for you and your family in order to stay safe.

[wxmann_91]

That's not the latest image. The 1525 image shows what looks like dryer air on the northern edge of the eyewall. I admit though....it's FAR from sick.

Classic indications that ERC is occurring, the dryer air is in fact the moat, the area between the outer and inner eyewall.