Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

shawn67 · #1141 Postby **shawn67** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:07 am

Rae wrote:Is GOES down? It hasn't updated since 1515. Anyone have another radar link?

TIA

Try here:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Shawn

#1142 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:11 am

Rae wrote:Is GOES down? It hasn't updated since 1515. Anyone have another radar link?

TIA

Rae....What you're looking at updates every 30 minutes (15 and 45 after). The GHCC site is updating every 5 minutes.

raisinsnacks · #1143 Postby **raisinsnacks** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:13 am

Will land interaction as Wilma crosses through the Yucatan Channel lessen her surge as she crosses into the GoM?

I'll hang up and listen.

#1144 Postby **linkerweather** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:13 am

boca_chris wrote:
12z GFS has slowed down cosiderably. From 06z forecast for 12z Sat had it approaching the Keys, now the 12z run has it over Cozumel and not turning yet

Josh, what's to mood like up in Tampa Bay? I seriously think that Wilma could greatly impact the area.

Most people I have spoken to aren't too worried abuot it. But, everyone is aware. I do always suggest to people that they be prepared ahead of the season so last minute preps only take a few minutes.

I can tell you personally, that I have many gallons of bottled water, close to 50 batteries of all sizes, and ready cut plywood labelled for my windows. I have to get that stuff taken care of quickly so I could go in to work.

I personally feel that here in the Tampa Bay area we will feel some effects, but at least at the present time, I have a hard time seeing a landfall much farther north than FT. Myers. Keep in mind that the wind field will be expanding as WIlma begins to be influenced by non tropical systems. But more likely on the East and NE side.

I expressed the other day, the surprise of CHarley and how the NW side was wind free and totally dry; I don't believe that will be the case here. Of note however, would be the potential for a subtle NNE move after landfall, and that could put interests near the MLB area at least in a more of a heads up mode.

I have to analyze that 12z GFS a bit more and try to figure out why it is indicating the stall.

shaggy · #1145 Postby **shaggy** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:13 am

interesting segment on local weather today at noon.weatherman said threat for a east coast runner was increasing.i haven't seen any models showing actual 2nd landfall any up the EC so is this just hype or does he know something i don't?

chris_fit · #1146 Postby **chris_fit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:16 am

GFS looks SOUTH of the previous run, at least up to 102hrs

#1147 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:17 am

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv?map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL242005.map&layer=country&layer=damage&layer=track&layer=simtrack&zoomsize=2
A wealth of info including: Storm Surge, damage, winds, rain ,etc.

x-y-no · #1148 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:17 am

Sheesh ... 12Z GFS is shaping up to be the "hit everything in sight" run. After sweeping up the Yucatan coast and stalling over Cozumel, it heads nearly due east across the channel and sweeps along the northern coast of Cuba:

Bet you next it'll turn NE and hit Miami.

Scorpion · #1149 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:17 am

chris_fit wrote:GFS looks SOUTH of the previous run, at least up to 102hrs

GFS also takes it ENE after emerging. Towards the straights I believe.

Scorpion · #1150 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:18 am

x-y-no wrote:Sheesh ... 12Z GFS is shaping up to be the "hit everything in sight run. After sweeping up the Yucatan coast and stalling over Cozumel, it heads nearly due east across the channel and sweeps along the northern coast of Cuba:

Bet you next it'll turn NE and hit Miami.

Wow I thought that run would be better news for South Florida but its even worse.

nequad · #1151 Postby **nequad** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:18 am

Well...the 12Z GFS idea of a slower motion initially is consistent with the last few runs of the EC. But...that doesn't automatically make it correct.

jpigott · #1152 Postby **jpigott** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:18 am

not sure if i'm seeing this right, but if you go to the ramsidis website and check out the visible satellite it appears as if the eye (as small as it is) is still contrating

shaggy · #1153 Postby **shaggy** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:19 am

interesting segment on local weather today at noon.weatherman said threat for a east coast runner was increasing.i haven't seen any models showing actual 2nd landfall any up the EC so is this just hype or does he know something i don't?

Website · #1154 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:23 am

2am MONDAY!

Over the Keys...

Scorpion · #1155 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:25 am

I really don't want it coming in that slow. Its almost like Frances. Waiting and waiting....

chris_fit · #1156 Postby **chris_fit** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:27 am

Brent wrote:2am MONDAY!

Over the Keys...

If you look at the higher res. version it's not in the keys, appears to be in the Naples area or just slighly south.

x-y-no · #1157 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:27 am

Sure enough ... NE over ther whole length of the Keys, and then across metropolitan SEFL.

Dare I guess ... next it'll head up the coast and hit New York.

:roll:

x-y-no · #1158 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:30 am

chris_fit wrote:If you look at the higher res. version it's not in the keys, appears to be in the Naples area or just slighly south.

Actually, It's over Florida Bay. But remember, the SE quad would be the strongest portion of the storm in this scenario.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1159 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:30 am

New GFS has it usual Static going on...That Stall will not happen or Sure...

x-y-no · #1160 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:34 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:New GFS has it usual Static going on...That Stall will not happen or Sure...

Well, let's hope. It's pretty much a recipe for wreaking maximum havoc in three nations.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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