Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[MBismyPlayground]

interesting segment on local weather today at noon.weatherman said threat for a east coast runner was increasing.i haven't seen any models showing actual 2nd landfall any up the EC so is this just hype or does he know something i don't?

I am not a met or anything else, but I think it might be a little hype.
At least not in the Carolina's at this point. Everything is subject to change but I hear East Coast but more like up towards the very very north, like Canada. I don't think we have anything to worry about at this point, lucky us. Just a little rain possibly

[markymark8]

interesting segment on local weather today at noon.weatherman said threat for a east coast runner was increasing.i haven't seen any models showing actual 2nd landfall any up the EC so is this just hype or does he know something i don't?

NOT AT ALL!!! That scenerio can happen for sure if the timing pans out which it seems some models now want to do this. Its a wait and see game right now with the next trough coming thru. For it to be a east coaster storm Wilma will have to hit Tampa or further north. This is still a good possibility and could scrape S.C. and N.C. similar to what Charley did. This time she might make it all the way up the east coast.

[skysummit]

Over 40ft waves near the center. I say "over" because that's as high as the scale can go!

[x-y-no]

Looks like that tiny little eye is filling in finally. Amazed it lasted this long.

[cinlfla]

[floridahurricaneguy]

So I cant tell, have latest models shifted at all. When do we think will have an idea if tampa is free or not?

Matt

[tampaflwx]

Did the eye just make a loop?

Also, did anyone notice that many of the models are beginning a more northern component? This makes sense to me because of the following

1) ridge might be weaker than expected
2) average NHC track is error is several hundred miles off (we're still several days out from landfall)
3) big storms can't make tight turns easily...this they make very wide and broad movements
4)if it stalls or slows down over the yucatan peninsula, this could mean a more northern track

i think the models at first overestimated the effect of that trough...they are now moving back and we are seeing the "correction".

[cjrciadt]

Eye has filled in.

[AZS]

The AVNI must be crazy

[Windy]

Eye has filled in.

Does that look filled in to you?

[cjrciadt]

Slighty larger windband expect this to only get larger over time. Only visiably the eye is covered now.

[Scorpion]

Is that 175 knots that particular model shows??? Just insane.

[jpigott]

i think i know something else everybody should add to their survival kits - chewing gum Seriously though, what do alot of people do during the ascent of an airplane flight? Chew gum to help "pop your ears" and equalize pressure. I have a buddy who lived through Andrew in Homestead. He said his ears were popping and the pressure was "only" 922mb. What happens when an 882mb beast like Wilma comes over your abode? Better start chewing that gum (by the way can anyone believe this thing was 40mb worse than Andrew and 20mb worse than Katrina at her peak) what a crazy season

[jasons2k]

So I cant tell, have latest models shifted at all. When do we think will have an idea if tampa is free or not?

Matt

When it makes landfall!! Remember Charley?

[El Nino]

Still having a cat4 hurricane at landfall or borderline. In fact, still a very bif thing. And despite the ERC, maybe she's not peaked. A process of re-intensification can occur after. 160 kts, seems still possible. Quite gusty weather uh ...

in about 30 min, intermdiate advisory and I think RECON is going to arrive quite soon.

[sponger]

Yep recon likely has the plane wide open trying to make the eyewall before 2. Will see in 30 Mins if the make it!

[nequad]

Oh boy...12Z GFDL has a surprise for everyone.


628
WHXX04 KWBC 191725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.3 82.8 300./ 6.0
6 17.6 83.6 291./ 8.3
12 17.6 84.5 271./ 8.6
18 18.1 85.1 311./ 7.1
24 18.4 86.1 284./10.3
30 18.7 86.5 313./ 4.8
36 19.4 87.0 321./ 8.3
42 19.8 87.5 308./ 6.4
48 20.1 87.7 330./ 3.3
54 20.4 87.9 324./ 4.5
60 20.6 88.1 319./ 2.7
66 20.7 88.1 346./ .4
72 21.0 88.2 358./ 2.7
78 20.9 88.1 121./ .6
84 20.9 88.0 125./ 1.2
90 20.8 87.8 110./ 1.9
96 20.8 87.8 59./ .5
102 20.6 87.4 129./ 4.0
108 20.5 86.8 92./ 6.5
114 20.4 85.9 97./ 8.0
120 20.8 84.9 68./10.2
126 21.3 84.0 60./ 9.5

[skysummit]

Oh boy...12Z GFDL has a surprise for everyone.


628
WHXX04 KWBC 191725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.3 82.8 300./ 6.0
6 17.6 83.6 291./ 8.3
12 17.6 84.5 271./ 8.6
18 18.1 85.1 311./ 7.1
24 18.4 86.1 284./10.3
30 18.7 86.5 313./ 4.8
36 19.4 87.0 321./ 8.3
42 19.8 87.5 308./ 6.4
48 20.1 87.7 330./ 3.3
54 20.4 87.9 324./ 4.5
60 20.6 88.1 319./ 2.7
66 20.7 88.1 346./ .4
72 21.0 88.2 358./ 2.7
78 20.9 88.1 121./ .6
84 20.9 88.0 125./ 1.2
90 20.8 87.8 110./ 1.9
96 20.8 87.8 59./ .5
102 20.6 87.4 129./ 4.0
108 20.5 86.8 92./ 6.5
114 20.4 85.9 97./ 8.0
120 20.8 84.9 68./10.2
126 21.3 84.0 60./ 9.5

and what the heck does that mean? Where does it put Wilma now?

[CronkPSU]

if i'm reading ti right, it is basically stationary

[LanceW]

Oh boy...12Z GFDL has a surprise for everyone.

Not really surprised as it feeds off the GFS.