Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[nequad]

um...120 hour position is south of Cuba.

[Brent]

The only thing that's a surprise is the Maine landfall at the very end... it follows the NHC track up til then.



Pink line.

[Canelaw99]

Am I wrong, or does that GFDL put it SOUTH of the Keys? I know my lat. is 25.2N and it never reaches my latitude. My brother in Islamorada said he's out of there because this is the perfect set-up for a Keys strike. It makes me wonder if he's right. He's lived in the Keys a long, long time, and it's usually like pulling teeth to get him to go for a storm.

[Aimless]

That would be quite a stall!

[AZS]

is this GFDL model correct ???

[Brent]

um...120 hour position is south of Cuba.

There's an error somewhere... that can't be right. The SFWMD map shows it following the NHC(except it hits Cancun), crosses FL the same place, offshore, then into Maine.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL is the blue line that is over the NHC line.

[jkt21787]

The new crazy GFDL is in fact the new one (12z), the one that shows it hitting Maine is the 6z run.

[nequad]

Yeah, I guess it's not a surprise to me. But it is even slower than the GFS...much slower. This certainly adds confusion to the forecast. I mean, if you look closely, you'll see the NHC track forecast has been very close to the GFDL runs for the past day or so. Not surprising because the NHC often times follows the GFDL too much. Nevertheless...the new 12Z run of the GFDL has a five day position some 1000 miles south of the latests 5 day track from the NHC.

That to me is surprising.

[DESTRUCTION5]

um...120 hour position is south of Cuba.

There's an error somewhere... that can't be right. The SFWMD map shows it following the NHC(except it hits Cancun), crosses FL the same place, offshore, then into Maine.

Is that the 12Z Brent?

[Brent]

My head hurts.

[Scorpion]

Central Florida looking increasingly unlikely.

[Myersgirl]

Damn, I was getting excited with that south model run. We have to pull in 30 stone crab traps soon in the absencense of some good news

[cjrciadt]

12z GFDL is the blue line that is over the NHC line.

Just upadted now look at the blue line. Why does the GFDL torture us so.

[Seele]

You can see one heck of an outer eyewall on the microwave image:



I think the wobbles you are seeing with the tiny eye is it rotating around this larger eye that we'll see tonight into tomorrow.

[WeatherEmperor]

no no. dont follow the SFWMD times for the GFDL. They are 6 hrs ahead. Eventhough it says 12Z on the SFWMD graphic, that is actually the 6Z output and it will say 18Z which is actually the 12Z output.

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL is the blue line that is over the NHC line.

Luis are you sure? Something is not right here

[tronbunny]

That 12z GFDL is almost a complete mirror of current (last) consensus!
I saw that on the 12z MM5 (af?)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 912/1.html


Is it possible that the models are choking on the unheard of current pressure readings?

I know that early yesterday was when the models flipped from the western track over Yucatan... to the current Florida threat.

Are we about to see all the models do another 180 degree flop?

[Brent]

Both graphics are updated... ugh. That better be a bad run.

[skysummit]

Something's koo koo b/c my GFDL shows her just south of Cuba then not moving. What's going on?