Tropical Depression 18,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JPmia]

Those models tracks look reasonable to me. I wonder why the Bahamas put up a watch for the Freeport area. I think this is more of a Keys problem than Miami/Ft. laud. Looks like that high will be rather strong

[Thunder44]

It looks they are going to have to shift the track a little further north anyway, because the center looks like it's reforming a little bit further to the NE of Turks and Caicos Islands.

[tailgater]

The track may need to adjusted again because if I'm looking at the vis. loops right this morning there is a new circulation that is taking over at 22.5n 72.0 w ( IMHO).
HA looks like THUNDER beat to the punch.

[cjrciadt]

The Benchmark of rapid intensification, not expecting anything like this at all.

[x-y-no]

The track may need to adjusted again because if I'm looking at the vis. loops right this morning there is a new circulation that is taking over at 22.5n 72.0 w ( IMHO).
HA looks like THUNDER beat to the punch.

Yes, I agree. The center now appears to be a fair bit further north than it was tracking. Not exactly what I wanted to see.

[cycloneye]

I wasn't here as I was in church and found this thread locked.I dont know who did it but as long TD 18 is there it will remain open.

[WindRunner]

Thanks cycloneye.

[CronkPSU]

thanks

looks like the convection has decreased a little from the IR loops over the past few hours

[NCHurricane]

TY cycloneye.

[krysof]

thanks

looks like the convection has decreased a little from the IR loops over the past few hours

Probably just part of itself organizing.

[wxwonder12]

From the satallite pictures it dosen't look like it is moving very much right now.

[Recurve]

Latest update said movement west. This seems like a good thing for South Florida and the Keys. Key West NWS met just said on radio they are expecting a cat 1 to move 30 miles south of Key West.

[ericinmia]

the fsu mm5 is rolling in....

I think it has had a few too many drinks off the cruise ships....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EIGHTEEN.track.png

west, southwest, northwest... whats next...

[vaffie]

Outflow is rapidly improving to its west. The upper low moving south seems to now be HELPing to increase outflow--this may ultimately allow TD18/Rita to strengthen tonight and tomorrow much faster than projected in my opinion.

[krysof]

I hope this works, I know it's not clear, but this is where I think TD 18 (Rita) will go. Of course:


Black-TD
Green-TS
Yellow-Cat 1
Orange-Cat 2
Red- Cat 3
Purple- Cat 4
Cat 5 is not included because I don't think it will reach Category 5 intensity.

[JTD]

Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....

A trough would tear the system apart right apart from the effect that it has on track?

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST FOR WED AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF TD-18...SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM RITA. BY EARLY WED IT
SHOULD HAVE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EMERGED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NHC FORECASTING IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND CLOUD COVER AND POPS
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH...BEGINNING THU
MORN. THE STORM MAY BE DRAWN TO THE NORTH A BIT ON WED AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES IT ON A COURSE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 25N
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well I like the Shakespearean type wording...haha I'm just insane. I just finished A Midsummer Night's Dream

ANYWAY, we must watch the trough forecasted to dig into SE US by
Wednesday for that northerly turn....

A trough would tear the system apart right apart from the effect that it has on track?

Wait I thought a trough pulls a system northward...or weakens the ridge and that allows northerly motion...??

[wzrgirl1]

will there be a 2:00 advisory on td 18?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST FOR WED AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF TD-18...SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM RITA. BY EARLY WED IT
SHOULD HAVE PASSED WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EMERGED INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH NHC FORECASTING IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND CLOUD COVER AND POPS
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH...BEGINNING THU
MORN. THE STORM MAY BE DRAWN TO THE NORTH A BIT ON WED AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES IT ON A COURSE SOUTH OF LATITUDE 25N
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

thanks ivanhater for answering my question psychically in advance