TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[txwatcher91]

I think the center did reform, look at the multispec:

That's what I think too. Possibly a Cat 1 or maybe even 2?

[cycloneye]

The latest forecast track from NHC.

[Forecaster Colby]

I doubt it's a cane yet, but since I checked the position in the advisory and it's about half a degree to the southwest...that's awfully darn close.

[wxman57]

I think the center did reform, look at the multispec:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma6.jpg">

Look at the very dark low clouds in the bottom two images. The center is on the south side of the convection, it is not reforming beneath the convection. I believe you're looking at the mid-level circulation center that the NHC mentioned. Southwesterly shear is causing the TS to be tilted to the north. In fact, one could make a case that the center may have been located inland over Honduras earlier this afternoon and is still right on the coast. The bottom two pictures suggest that. I put an "X" where the center could be based on low cloud motions. But it could be a bit farther north near 16.4N where the NHC has it.

The recon plane cearly found 1015mb pressure in the center of those squalls and an LLC on the southern edge by Honduras. It's just a sheared TS. And the new NHC forecast indicates only 5 mph more strengthening, up to 50 mph. There's just too much shear present for much strengthening.

[txwatcher91]

I think the center did reform, look at the multispec:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma6.jpg">

Look at the very dark low clouds in the bottom two images. The center is on the south side of the convection, it is not reforming beneath the convection. In fact, one could make a case that the center may have drifted southwest and is now inland over Honduras. The bottom two pictures suggest that. I put an "X" where the center could be based on low cloud motions. But it could be a bit farther north near 16.4N where the NHC has it.

The recon plane cearly found 1015mb pressure in the center of those squalls and an LLC on the southern edge by Honduras. It's just a sheared TS. And the new NHC forecast indicates only 5 mph more strengthening, up to 50 mph. There's just too much shear present for much strengthening.

Yeah,that may be true, but those images are several images old also. It could be the circulation you labeled with a X is the remnant circ. from 93L also.

[Forecaster Colby]

I have absolutely zero faith in NHC intensity forecasting this year. They've been decent about track, but gotten totally steamrollered on intensity.

[Rainband]

I have absolutely zero faith in NHC intensity forecasting this year. They've been decent about track, but gotten totally steamrollered on intensity.

shear

[wxman57]

I have absolutely zero faith in NHC intensity forecasting this year. They've been decent about track, but gotten totally steamrollered on intensity.

Well, I agree that intensity forecasting has been pretty bad. However, there's a big difference when a storm is heading into very strong wind shear as compared to a storm in a light shear environment. There's very little chance that Gamma will become a hurricane, and there may not be much left of it by the time it reaches the southern tip of Florida. Not with 70-80 kts of southwest winds aloft and dry air entrainment in the lower levels.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah,that may be true, but those images are several images old also. It could be the circulation you labeled with a X is the remnant circ. from 93L also.

The multi-sens imagery is from the latest overpass. Those images aren't taken every 30 minutes. It's from a polar orbiter. This one went by only an hour and a half ago.

[Forecaster Colby]

I have absolutely zero faith in NHC intensity forecasting this year. They've been decent about track, but gotten totally steamrollered on intensity.

shear

Wilma. Vince. Katrina. Rita.

[mike815]

This is a sheared piece of crap oh well at least we got another name.

[krysof]

The elongated storm also looks like a hurricane with the shear.

[wxman57]

According to the 3 CST advisory, this is 27. If it were 93L's circulation, it'd be 28.

The convection is remnants of TD 27, the LLC is from 93L. There's absolutely no doubt that the LLC isn't from TD 27. Either way, it would be called Gamma, not 28, as winds are TS force. The two systems merged.

[wxman57]

Yeah,that may be true, but those images are several images old also. It could be the circulation you labeled with a X is the remnant circ. from 93L also.

Actually, that "X" IS the circulation of 93L. It could clearly be tracked moving northward along the coast of Nicaragua yesterday then NW across eastern Honduras early this morning. However, it is now the center of TS Gamma.

[windycity]

i think NHC has done a great job of forecasting this year,on both track and intensity. lets all give em a BIG thanks for all they do. after all, we need their input ! i have learned so much since last year and i am grateful to have found storm2k. now down to praying about gamma.PLEASE GOD! MAKE IT GO AWAY!!!!

[Forecaster Colby]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA...

[Air Force Met]

According to the 3 CST advisory, this is 27. If it were 93L's circulation, it'd be 28.

The convection is remnants of TD 27, the LLC is from 93L. There's absolutely no doubt that the LLC isn't from TD 27. Either way, it would be called Gamma, not 28, as winds are TS force. The two systems merged.

Well...they are saying it is from the LLC of TD 27...hence the reason we are on advisory number 13 already. It really is a combo of the two pieces of energy...93L+TD27. And if you really get technical...there was a whole lot more of 93L that went into this than there was TD27.

[wxman57]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA...

Right, because they wanted to avoid confusion of saying that this was a merger of an LLC from 93L and convection from TD 27.

[mike815]

Yeah they dont want to confuse people.

[fci]

Note how the track is evolving further South each time (I know there have only been 2 advisories but it is further south than the last one).
Models seem to take it further south too.

Keeps going we will see it go through the Straits and miss the peninsula entirely?