Hurricane Katrina

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WindRunner
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#1201 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:53 pm

StormsAhead wrote:
WindRunner wrote:It could have been higher, though. Is there a page to go to for a minobs archive?


There is, the NHC archives, but they are slow to update. Anyway, the vortex message confirms that 83 knots was the highest.


Yeah, that vortex just came out. Thanks, though.

The vortex shows her two ticks south of the 2pm advisory position. Is she not done heading south yet, or is that prelim?
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#1202 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:55 pm

Scorpion wrote:I have a feeling this is going to explode overnight. Ivan did almost the same(except rising 21 mb instead of 10)near Jamaica before bombing to 145 kts and 910 mb.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp
Correct, a 10mb is very little compared to Ivan the Terrible.
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#1203 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:57 pm

Man, I saw this and I know it's going to bomb out when you can see the concentric eyewalls on this wide of a shot:

Image

EDIT: Well, it was better on the last update.
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#1204 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:59 pm

WindRunner wrote:The vortex shows her two ticks south of the 2pm advisory position. Is she not done heading south yet, or is that prelim?


The southward motion is occurring because of the changes in the eye and eyewall. My guess is that this should end with the ERC.
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#1205 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:01 pm

Good point.
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#1206 Postby milankovitch » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:02 pm

I think it's really important to take note of that 9C temperature difference between the eye and eye wall, after the ERC we could see some serious intensification.
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#1207 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:03 pm

URNT40 KWBC 271750
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
174030 2416 08641 10024 +0096 344054 +109 +095 344055 043 004
174100 2416 08639 10029 +0088 347054 +110 +099 347054 044 003
174130 2416 08636 10045 +0073 346060 +107 +106 351061 046 008
174200 2416 08634 10071 +0064 354061 +108 +103 354061 047 006
174230 2416 08632 10028 +0043 351060 +114 +104 354060 049 008
174300 2416 08629 10066 +0031 350061 +106 +106 350064 049 011
174330 2416 08627 10062 +0019 351066 +105 +105 351068 051 008
174400 2416 08625 10006 +0001 355058 +109 +109 356059 051 006
174430 2416 08623 10036 -0017 355061 +114 +105 356062 052 004
174500 2416 08620 10061 -0031 351061 +113 +096 351061 054 002
174530 2417 08618 10055 -0050 350058 +109 +104 349059 054 009
174600 2417 08616 10076 -0065 355061 +114 +114 356062 055 018
174630 2417 08613 10009 -0086 345065 +117 +117 344067 060 016
174700 2417 08611 10095 -0095 346065 +116 +115 347066 059 008
174730 2417 08609 10062 -0125 348072 +116 +115 348073 060 006
174800 2418 08607 10041 -0154 350074 +115 +115 349075 062 007
174830 2418 08604 10004 -0186 353074 +120 +120 354075 063 008
174900 2418 08602 9985 -0215 351077 +120 +120 351079 066 011
174930 2418 08600 9996 -0242 349078 +122 +120 349078 065 013
175000 2419 08558 10009 -0281 342079 +118 +118 343079 067 011
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#1208 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:05 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 271757
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 15 KNHC
1747 2314N 08359W 02439 0028 221 057 124 104 057 02511 0000000000
1747. 2313N 08358W 02438 0029 220 057 124 102 057 02511 0000000000
1748 2312N 08357W 02438 0030 219 056 126 104 057 02512 0000000000
1748. 2311N 08355W 02439 0031 219 056 122 122 058 02514 0000000000
1749 2310N 08354W 02438 0032 220 054 124 122 055 02514 0000000000
1749. 2309N 08353W 02439 0034 220 052 126 120 053 02517 0000000000
1750 2308N 08352W 02439 0040 218 053 128 114 053 02523 0000000000
1750. 2308N 08350W 02444 0042 218 053 130 106 054 02531 0000000000
1751 2310N 08349W 02435 0038 217 051 126 116 053 02517 0000000000
1751. 2312N 08350W 02437 0033 213 051 126 120 052 02514 0000000000
1752 2314N 08350W 02437 0032 212 051 128 116 052 02513 0000000000
1752. 2316N 08351W 02439 0031 212 052 126 116 053 02514 0000000000
1753 2318N 08351W 02439 0031 211 053 126 114 053 02514 0000000000
1753. 2320N 08351W 02437 0030 209 054 126 114 055 02511 0000000000
1754 2322N 08351W 02438 0027 212 055 126 114 055 02510 0000000000
1754. 2324N 08351W 02440 0026 211 056 124 116 057 02510 0000000000
1755 2326N 08351W 02436 0025 212 056 126 116 057 02504 0000000000
1755. 2328N 08351W 02441 0023 212 057 124 120 058 02509 0000000000
1756 2330N 08351W 02437 0023 210 057 128 122 058 02504 0000000000
1756. 2333N 08351W 02440 0021 209 059 126 124 060 02505 0000000000
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#1209 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:10 pm

DROPSONDE
Flight: NOAA3 1312A
Observation #: 17
Location: 25.5N 86.7W
Surface: Pressure 999mb; Wind NNE (25°) at 35 knots
1000mb: Height -13 meters; Wind N/A (N/A°) at N/A knots
925mb: Height 676 meters; Wind NE (35°) at 45 knots
850mb: Height 1412 meters; Wind NE (40°) at 42 knots
700mb: Height 3064 meters; Wind NE (40°) at 45 knots
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#1210 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:11 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 271807
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 16 KNHC
1757 2335N 08352W 02439 0020 208 059 124 124 060 02503 0000000000
1757. 2337N 08352W 02438 0018 206 060 126 120 060 02500 0000000000
1758 2339N 08352W 02436 0017 205 059 126 124 060 02497 0000000000
1758. 2341N 08352W 02440 0017 203 061 126 126 061 02501 0000000000
1759 2343N 08352W 02438 0016 201 060 124 122 061 02498 0000000000
1759. 2345N 08352W 02440 0015 202 059 126 126 060 02499 0000000000
1800 2348N 08352W 02437 0014 199 061 132 118 062 02495 0000000000
1800. 2350N 08352W 02439 0013 200 063 132 116 063 02496 0000000000
1801 2352N 08352W 02437 0012 201 061 132 116 062 02493 0000000000
1801. 2354N 08353W 02440 0011 198 062 132 116 062 02494 0000000000
1802 2357N 08353W 02439 0010 195 062 134 110 063 02494 0000000000
1802. 2359N 08353W 02436 0009 194 060 136 108 061 02489 0000000000
1803 2401N 08353W 02439 0008 193 063 136 108 063 02491 0000000000
1803. 2403N 08353W 02437 0006 194 060 132 114 062 02487 0000000000
1804 2405N 08353W 02440 0005 193 057 126 118 057 02489 0000000000
1804. 2408N 08353W 02438 0004 189 057 128 116 059 02486 0000000000
1805 2410N 08353W 02440 0003 187 064 126 120 066 02487 0000000000
1805. 2412N 08353W 02438 0002 183 066 126 118 067 02484 0000000000
1806 2414N 08354W 02438 5000 184 065 122 120 066 02482 0000000000
1806. 2417N 08354W 02438 5002 186 063 126 122 064 02480 0000000000
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#1211 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:13 pm

URNT40 KWBC 271800
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
175030 2419 08555 10036 -0312 342080 +121 +121 342081 069 009
175100 2419 08553 10050 -0358 349082 +123 +123 351083 071 011
175130 2419 08551 10213 -0396 346086 +124 +124 349087 073 017
175200 2419 08548 10202 -0447 345083 +126 +126 343090 066 026
175230 2419 08546 10166 -0497 347072 +133 +133 347074 076 012
175300 2420 08544 10067 -0539 346064 +149 +132 347066 074 005
175330 2420 08541 10019 -0583 348061 +148 +125 346063 066 002
175400 2420 08539 10020 -0622 346055 +150 +115 349056 061 004
175430 2420 08537 10016 -0665 348055 +151 +112 347056 057 002
175500 2421 08535 10031 -0710 353060 +166 +099 353060 057 002
175530 2421 08532 10018 -1035 351068 +170 +096 354083 055 001
175600 2421 08530 10017 -0815 337060 +170 +103 334061 057 002
175630 2422 08528 10027 -0890 329065 +167 +111 329065 061 003
175700 2422 08525 10031 -0975 322058 +162 +153 323065 058 003
175730 2423 08523 10024 -1068 317048 +164 +155 318054 060 005
175800 2425 08522 10015 -1148 313026 +172 +153 313032 038 003
175830 2427 08520 10030 -1183 350009 +168 +154 330017 017 003
175900 2428 08518 10012 -1603 049018 +163 +150 030054 022 002
175930 2428 08516 10027 -1178 165017 +158 +152 167019 021 004
180000 2428 08514 10051 -1136 168031 +167 +142 172037 031 004

Double wind peaks...90 and 83 knots.
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#1212 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:15 pm

TPNT KGWC 271800
A. HURRICANE KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 27/1731Z (73)
C. 24.4N/0
D. 85.4W/7
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS -27/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO TCB/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR WHT
CNVCTN. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T5.5 (UNIFORM CDO)

SCHULTZ/ARCHULETTA

Air Force T numbers.
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#1213 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:18 pm

check out the last few frames of this loop. This storm is getting incredibly large! It's been really growing in the last few hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#1214 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:20 pm

URNT40 KWBC 271810
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
180030 2428 08512 9956 -1079 178047 +173 +146 177050 048 008
180100 2428 08509 9985 -0991 177063 +167 +160 177070 054 022
180130 2428 08507 10027 -1508 174088 +161 +149 173110 063 007
180200 2428 08505 10019 -0815 173074 +158 +129 172075 058 002
180230 2428 08503 9985 -0754 175070 +170 +106 173073 056 003
180300 2428 08501 10006 -0702 177067 +164 +106 174068 053 001
180330 2428 08459 9991 -0663 179063 +162 +101 179064 061 001
180400 2428 08457 9999 -0626 179060 +163 +098 178062 073 005
180500 2428 08452 10058 -0544 186074 +139 +138 186085 085 016
180530 2428 08450 10204 -0463 180088 +124 +124 178093 086 035
180600 2428 08448 10352 -0400 179082 +127 +127 180084 080 025
180630 2428 08445 10096 -0375 181083 +129 +129 181085 076 010
180700 2428 08443 9969 -0349 181079 +128 +128 181080 075 009
180730 2428 08441 9983 -0309 188086 +125 +125 189089 069 014
180800 2428 08439 9985 -0267 187090 +121 +121 188091 067 017
180830 2428 08436 10041 -0233 181081 +117 +117 182088 066 015
180900 2428 08434 10015 -0194 180074 +129 +120 181076 060 014
180930 2428 08432 10033 -0162 180080 +125 +114 181081 054 009
181000 2428 08430 10078 -0137 181079 +117 +113 181079 052 010

110 knots FL...SMRF no higher than 86.
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Scorpion

#1215 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:21 pm

Kept its winds even through the ERC.
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#1216 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:23 pm

Scorpion wrote:Kept its winds even through the ERC.


The ERC has barely begun. But yes, the wind is still typical of a 115-MPH hurricane.
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#1217 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:23 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 271817
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 17 KNHC
1807 2419N 08354W 02438 5002 184 062 122 122 063 02480 0000000000
1807. 2421N 08354W 02440 5003 183 062 120 120 063 02480 0000000000
1808 2424N 08354W 02437 5003 182 062 126 126 063 02478 0000000000
1808. 2426N 08354W 02439 5002 182 064 136 106 064 02481 0000000000
1809 2428N 08354W 02438 5002 181 064 138 104 064 02480 0000000000
1809. 2430N 08354W 02438 5001 178 064 132 102 066 02480 0000000000
1810 2433N 08354W 02438 5001 175 066 132 108 067 02480 0000000000
1810. 2435N 08355W 02439 5002 176 068 134 112 070 02481 0000000000
1811 2437N 08355W 02440 5002 176 069 130 118 070 02482 0000000000
1811. 2440N 08355W 02437 5002 176 068 124 120 069 02479 0000000000
1812 2442N 08355W 02438 5003 173 068 130 112 070 02479 0000000000
1812. 2444N 08355W 02438 5003 169 065 134 116 066 02479 0000000000
1813 2446N 08355W 02438 5002 166 064 126 122 065 02480 0000000000
1813. 2449N 08355W 02440 5002 164 063 120 120 063 02481 0000000000
1814 2451N 08355W 02441 5001 164 061 108 108 063 02484 0000000000
1814. 2453N 08355W 02434 5001 162 065 120 120 065 02477 0000000000
1815 2455N 08356W 02439 0001 168 066 122 122 067 02484 0000000000
1815. 2458N 08356W 02440 0003 165 064 126 124 066 02487 0000000000
1816 2500N 08356W 02440 0004 162 065 130 120 065 02488 0000000000
1816. 2502N 08356W 02436 0005 158 068 116 116 071 02485 0000000000

71 knots...
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Scorpion

#1218 Postby Scorpion » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:26 pm

So you think the pressure will continue to rise as the ERC has barely begun?
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#1219 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:So you think the pressure will continue to rise as the ERC has barely begun?


Definitely, ERC's cause storms to weaken a lot more than 10mb.
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#1220 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:32 pm

RECCO OBSERVATION
Flight: AF306 WX12A
Observation #: 8
Time: 18:24Z
Location: 25.6N 84.0W
Altitude: 2440 meters
Flight-level wind: SE (140°) at 60 knots
Temperature: 13C
Dew Point: 10C
Weather: Rain
D-Value: 20 meters
Surface Wind: ESE (120°) at 45 knots
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