Tropical Storm Ophelia

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 120845
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0900Z MON SEP 12 2005

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.4N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.9N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

[TampaFl]

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900Z MON SEP 12 2005

...THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR 2005...

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS... 75 MPH...120 KM/HR.

CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT

Z INDICATES UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME (GREENWICH)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)

HARTFORD CO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14)
HARTFORD CO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 4(19)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 3(18)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 3(26)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) 1(25)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 10(33) 2(35)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 17(26) 4(30) 1(31)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

NORFOLK VA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 19(34) 7(41) 1(42)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

GREENSBORO NC 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 11(23) 1(24) 1(25)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

RALEIGH NC 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 12(33) 3(36) X(36)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 6(10) 13(23) 11(34) 20(54) 4(58) 1(59)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) 3(23) 1(24)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 8(22) 1(23) 1(24)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 8 14(22) 18(40) 10(50) 13(63) 2(65) 1(66)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 11(24) 2(26) 1(27)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)

WILMINGTON NC 34 12 22(34) 18(52) 7(59) 10(69) 2(71) 1(72)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)

COLUMBIA SC 34 4 5( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 7(29) 1(30) 1(31)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 17 23(40) 16(56) 8(64) 6(70) 2(72) X(72)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 5( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 5(25) 1(26) 1(27)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

CHARLESTON SC 34 14 17(31) 13(44) 7(51) 6(57) 1(58) X(58)
CHARLESTON SC 50 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21)

SAVANNAH GA 34 4 7(11) 9(20) 5(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

JACKSONVILLE 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16)

ORLANDO FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)

FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

W PALM BEACH 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT

12 314N 772W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 314N 772W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 314N 772W 64 37 7(44) 2(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)

24 319N 775W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
24 319N 775W 50 66 10(76) 4(80) 1(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82)
24 319N 775W 64 14 13(27) 6(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) 1(37)

36 325N 776W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
36 325N 776W 50 22 23(45) 10(55) 4(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62)
36 325N 776W 64 3 9(12) 9(21) 3(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)

48 333N 775W 34 53 17(70) 8(78) 5(83) 3(86) 1(87) X(87)
48 333N 775W 50 3 14(17) 15(32) 7(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45)
48 333N 775W 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21)


72 355N 760W 34 4 6(10) 13(23) 10(33) 20(53) 5(58) X(58)
72 355N 760W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 3(22) 1(23)
72 355N 760W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)


96 385N 725W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 4(33)
96 385N 725W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14)
96 385N 725W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)


120 420N 680W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15)
120 420N 680W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
120 420N 680W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65 65 70 70 70 55 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)


FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN

[ThunderMate]

Ophelia seems to be wrapping around again on infared...watch the SW side wrap around. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[shaggy]

the Big "O" is starting to give me a big headache.Wish she would just do what she is going to do.One minute i am sold on a skirting hit then i see that flattened top she has and think the ridge is stronger than they thought and then i think if she fires convection she could get 85-90 before landfall but then i realize she WON'T do anything!!!!!!!!!!!

can't wait for the next models to run to see what they show this time!!!! California better watch out at this rate!

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 121202
A. HURRICANE OPHELIA (SIXTEEN)
B. 12/1131Z (82)
C. 31.4N/8
D. 77.1W/5
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS -12/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC IS LOCATED 40NM FROM DG GIVING A
DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET YIELD 3.0. FT BASED ON PT, MET SUPPORTS.

AODT: T3.8 (SHEAR)

KAMINSKI




[b]12/1145 UTC 31.5N 76.8W T3.5/3.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean


Air Force T numbers are below hurricane status.

SSD dvorak also are below hurricane status.

[Patrick99]

Ophelia looks ridiculous....looks more like some sort of hybrid subtropical storm than anything else.

However, her tail does keep spawning severe thunderstorms over South Florida in the evening.

[ncbird]

000
WTUS82 KMHX 120940
HLSMHX
AMZ158-NCZ095-098-104-121600-

HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
540 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...OPHELIA DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET AND
ONSLOW COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO
MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST
WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6
FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE
RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN
BEAUFORT COUNTY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 12 FEET. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AS OPELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO
A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
SURF WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES.
BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE
BEACH EROSION.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND NOON TODAY.

$$

TK

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA 16L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.2 76.6 270./ 4.1
6 31.3 76.9 297./ 3.3
12 31.4 77.1 293./ 2.2
18 31.4 77.2 255./ 1.0
24 31.5 77.2 29./ 1.2
30 31.9 77.3 343./ 3.7
36 32.2 77.2 26./ 3.1
42 32.6 77.2 348./ 4.2
48 33.0 77.2 1./ 4.0
54 33.6 77.2 359./ 6.5
60 34.1 77.2 6./ 4.8
66 34.7 76.9 29./ 6.3
72 35.0 76.8 19./ 3.8
78 35.3 76.5 45./ 3.0
84 35.5 76.1 58./ 4.1
90 36.0 75.7 44./ 5.7
96 36.6 75.1 41./ 8.2
102 37.4 74.2 48./10.4
108 38.4 73.0 52./13.4
114 39.1 71.5 65./13.6
120 39.9 69.8 64./16.1
126 41.0 67.5 64./20.4


Header says Tropical Storm Ophelia.

[Andrew92]

There is no way Ophelia is a hurricane now. NO WAY.

-Andrew92

[rockyman]

This was probably previous posted, but what's up the the 0z Canadian...it shows the sytem hitting near the NC/SC border, riding up the coast a little way, then getting shoved back southwest into the central Gulf of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TigerMo]

I've had small craft advisories for days on end here in the Charleston area. No fishing. no shrimping. waiting everyday to see if I need to get ready. I've got to head to Atlanta on business today so hopefully I'm not turning around and driving back home tomorrow. Sure wish this thing would blow itself out over the open waters.

By the way, thanks to Derek and all the other folks that helps us laymen understand a little more about these storms.

[cjrciadt]

This was probably previous posted, but what's up the the 0z Canadian...it shows the sytem hitting near the NC/SC border, riding up the coast a little way, then getting shoved back southwest into the central Gulf of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cjrciadt]

Another model run, another ugh.

[Andrew92]

I guess Ophelia being suicidal in Hamlet is no fluke! She was fictitiously suicidal, and now she enters our real lives and proves to be just as suicidal.

-Andrew92

[superfly]

While devoid of any convection in its inner core, the visible presentation is still quite nice so once it moves over warmer water in the Gulf Stream, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen.

[Andrew92]

While devoid of any convection in its inner core, the visible presentation is still quite nice so once it moves over warmer water in the Gulf Stream, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Even if it reaches those warm waters, there's lots and lots of dry air. Won't allow for Ophelia to strengthen much, if at all.

-Andrew92

[fci]

Why is the heading Tropical Storm and not Hurricane?

[Brent]

Why is the heading Tropical Storm and not Hurricane?

It has been downgraded... 11am advisory it will be a tropical storm.

[fci]

Why is the heading Tropical Storm and not Hurricane?

It has been downgraded... 11am advisory it will be a tropical storm.

Thanks. Had not seen any advisory with the downgrade yet.
Again the value of S2K whcih gives me info before I can find it anywhere else!