Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[margaritabeach]

the further north Wilma goes in the next 24-36 hours then the further north it will hit Florida. The further WEST it goes now the further South it will hit Florida. The trough will pick this up even if it stays stationary. If it does not start to gain latitude soon then maybe the models (gfs, gfdl) are not smoking crack after all.

[cjrciadt]

I just heard Mark Sudduth say that Recon isnt able to give us all real data readouts in areas in the storm. Some is estimated because Recon is scared to go through all of the storm. winds are 240mph in some areas that the plane would have to fly through.

At fight level correct?

[feederband]

Her wobbling loop- t- loops Still looks she going due west after each loop...When is she going to start being pulled north...?

Edit : sorry i meant west

[LanceW]

Her wobbling loop- t- loops Still looks she going due east after each loop...When is she going to start being pulled north...?

Well, she hit the last forecast point... Maybe she would rather go to Mexico..

[Weatherboy1]

I wouldn't make a huge deal out of the flip-flop seen in the GFS and GFS-based models. The 12Z Euro hasn't changed that much. The 12Z NOGAPS hasn't changed that much. The 12Z UKMET hasn't changed that much. It's all in the GFS. IF we see some confirmation in the overnight global runs of a stall, then maybe I'll bite on the GFS solution. But at this point, seems out to lunch to me.

[skysummit]

Well now two of the BAMs have her going into the Yuc before looping back out and heading east. I know....don't tell me about the BAMs. I mentioned it b/c it's two more models saying the Yuc.

[x-y-no]

I wouldn't make a huge deal out of the flip-flop seen in the GFS and GFS-based models. The 12Z Euro hasn't changed that much. The 12Z NOGAPS hasn't changed that much. The 12Z UKMET hasn't changed that much. It's all in the GFS. IF we see some confirmation in the overnight global runs of a stall, then maybe I'll bite on the GFS solution. But at this point, seems out to lunch to me.

Yeah, until we see some run-to-run consistancy or some support from a different global, I'm inclined to discount the stall and turn idea exhibited by the GFS and GFDL.

[cjrciadt]

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
Images site running great now.

[LanceW]

Well now two of the BAMs have her going into the Yuc before looping back out and heading east. I know....don't tell me about the BAMs. I mentioned it b/c it's two more models saying the Yuc.

I think I read somewhere the BAM models are fed from the GFS as well. (Correct?) If so, would explain the change here. Could be the old "garbage in, garbage out", or not. (Computer geek, not a Met)

[Weatherboy1]

Well now two of the BAMs have her going into the Yuc before looping back out and heading east. I know....don't tell me about the BAMs. I mentioned it b/c it's two more models saying the Yuc

Remember that models like the BAMs and the GFDL are run off the GFS grid, or environmental backdrop forecast. So they will -- to some extent -- always resemble what the GFS shows. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and other globals, by comparison, interpret the global environment differently. Put another way, when you're looking at the GFDL, the BAM, etc., you're "believing" that the GFS' overall forecast is more or less correct.

[djtil]

may god bless the yucatan. it appears the yucatan will take a devastating blow now....of course the "good" news in all of this is that she will lose a good deal of punch after reemerging and conditions wont be nearly as favorable at that time for much (any?) restrengthening considering the very strong forecast westerly shear.

[skysummit]

Well now two of the BAMs have her going into the Yuc before looping back out and heading east. I know....don't tell me about the BAMs. I mentioned it b/c it's two more models saying the Yuc.

I think I read somewhere the BAM models are fed from the GFS as well. (Correct?) If so, would explain the change here. Could be the old "garbage in, garbage out", or not. (Computer geek, not a Met)

Hmmm....maybe so. I'm not sure. Could someone please clarify this correct or not.

[Stratosphere747]

Read the sticky thread that wxman57 has explaining the models and their usefulness.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74792

[DESTRUCTION5]

Loos like its on track to me..Click the forecast pts...Right on line...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[jabber]

All I know is that I bet they are having some very interesting conversations at the NHC right now.

[feederband]

may god bless the yucatan. it appears the yucatan will take a devastating blow now....of course the "good" news in all of this is that she will lose a good deal of punch after reemerging and conditions wont be nearly as favorable at that time for much (any?) restrengthening considering the very strong forecast westerly shear.

I would hope you would be correct in your statement...But time will tell...

[DESTRUCTION5]

All I know is that I bet they are having some very interesting conversations at the NHC right now.

I bet they discount and wait for next run...

[Jim Cantore]

I just heard on TWC thatWilmas pressure is slowly starting to drop again

not good news at all

Also have the Hurricane Hunters had any gusts over 200?

[Jim Cantore]

and is it just me or is the LBAR NOT the dumbest looking model on the map?

[rainydaze]

I am hearing on a radio talk show called "The Schnitt Show" 610 am in Palm Beach County....that at the NHC news conference at 4:45 pm...Mayfield may announce a track change....they may be thinking Wilma is going to stall and miss the trough.....won't that be interesting.