Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[6SpeedTA95]

I get the feeling we're all at the point of scratching our heads...
The NHC is being conservative in changes.. because it does unsettle the public when there are wild swings in the forecasts.
Right now, it sounds like Max is saying "it go left, it can go right... we'll see when it starts to do one or the other"

It's rough when your data fails you!

Thats what sucks about these storms like this we dont have a lot of data on cat5 storms. Which makes them much harder to predict.

[ihatebadweather]

I think this line pretty much summed it up:

"Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably."

Call me crazy, but right now I am in a direct line with the current forecast path and I feel glad to be there. As many variables as there are out there right now, I don't think the current track will hold to be very accurate.
JMHO...ICBW

[Brent]

Does anyone else have a headache? Ugh... I'm sick of this storm already.

[Weatherfreak14]

Same. I am just tired of this whole season.

[Canelaw99]

Does anyone else have a headache? Ugh... I'm sick of this storm already.

No way, Brent - this is fun



This is Wilma as she watches us watching her track:

[jpigott]

i wish some of the pro mets that frequent this board would chime in on these new developments in the analysis forum (NHC's lack of confidence in track, almost complete model clustering to complete model divergence in a matter of one run, what their individual thoughts are re: Wilma)

[storms in NC]

She has grown alot.

[skysummit]

I think this line pretty much summed it up:

"Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably."

Call me crazy, but right now I am in a direct line with the current forecast path and I feel glad to be there. As many variables as there are out there right now, I don't think the current track will hold to be very accurate.
JMHO...ICBW

Nope...you're not crazy! The safest place to be usually is at the end of the 5 day cone. This may verify once again

[Brent]

This is Wilma as she watches us watching her track:

I was all certain in the track til about an hour ago... and now I just don't know.

This is me trying to figure out what the heck Wilma's gonna do.

BRING ON THE WINTER.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I Cant believe 1 GFS Run which feeds the Bamms(Useless) and GFDL has made the Pros Shutter? The GFS Has always pulled this BS...I would almost Guarente it will be back on track at the next Run...I look for a UKMET type Scenario...And who in thier right mind would doubt the EURO which has had the same Track for a week!

CRAZY!!!

[wsquared77]

I agree. I would love to see the analysis from "our" mets! I have a stupid question. How often do the models run? When will the next run happen so we can see if this shift is just temporary or if it sticks?

[vaffie]

What if it keeps going south of every forecast point, what if it even goes south of the GFDL and some of the AVN ensemble tracks, hits the Yucatan, misses the front, and enters the Bay of Campeche, stalls and starts drifting north or northwest as the high that is forecast to form over the Great Plains in the next four days and move eastward picks it up? What a horrible scenario for the western Gulf! If you think back, you may also recall that Mitch also kept going south of the forecast points too. In fact it went so far south of the forecast that it ended up in the Pacific! Superstorms in this part of the ocean like to do that, it seems, though we don't have many to look at. Yikes. It'll be weaker than it is now, that's for sure, but it won't have the shear it would have had in the Gulf, and the water is still warm enough to keep hurricanes alive. Anyway, just a thought. Don't shoot me. It helps when I write things down, that's all.

[Brent]

I agree. I would love to see the analysis from "our" mets! I have a stupid question. How often do the models run? When will the next run happen so we can see if this shift is just temporary or if it sticks?

6 hours... next runs are at 8pm EDT.

[TheEuropean]

i wish some of the pro mets that frequent this board would chime in on these new developments in the analysis forum (NHC's lack of confidence in track, almost complete model clustering to complete model divergence in a matter of one run, what their individual thoughts are re: Wilma)

Hi, I watch Wilma nearly every hour (with only a few hours to sleep) from a depression to now. Strong clustering is history and for me Wilma seems heading directly to yucatan. One wobble after another but no real turn to the northwest or north. So may be hit to yucatan and the weakening...

[n o o d l z]

i wish some of the pro mets that frequent this board would chime in on these new developments in the analysis forum (NHC's lack of confidence in track, almost complete model clustering to complete model divergence in a matter of one run, what their individual thoughts are re: Wilma)

Hi, I watch Wilma nearly every hour (with only a few hours to sleep) from a depression to now. Strong clustering is history and for me Wilma seems heading directly to yucatan. One wobble after another but no real turn to the northwest or north. So may be hit to yucatan and the weakening...

I disagree, its largely been following forecast plots so far...it generally seems to be moving NW.

[thermos]

So Wilma stalls and then eventually moves N or NE and hits Texas or LA? Isn't it more likely that it will just follow the same pattern as before with a possible clip of YP thrown in. The models are just going haywire because they haven't seen enough northerly movement yet.

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS rolling out.

Takes it just barely north of due west for the first 24 hours, more NW following that.

Onshore in NE Yucatan at 48 hours:




Steering looks pretty weak at that point:

[skysummit]

i wish some of the pro mets that frequent this board would chime in on these new developments in the analysis forum (NHC's lack of confidence in track, almost complete model clustering to complete model divergence in a matter of one run, what their individual thoughts are re: Wilma)

Hi, I watch Wilma nearly every hour (with only a few hours to sleep) from a depression to now. Strong clustering is history and for me Wilma seems heading directly to yucatan. One wobble after another but no real turn to the northwest or north. So may be hit to yucatan and the weakening...

I disagree, its largely been following forecast plots so far...it generally seems to be moving NW.

Definately not been moving true NW. Maybe WNW, but not NW. If that was the case, it would already be heading toward the Yuc Channel, and that's not happening right now.

[TheEuropean]

Definately not been moving true NW. Maybe WNW, but not NW. If that was the case, it would already be heading toward the Yuc Channel, and that's not happening right now.

Right. To wobble around 295 to 300 is not moving to the northwest.

[tronbunny]

No big change in the last 18z MM5(AF)