Tropical Storm Ophelia

[SCHawkFan]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE SEP 13 2005

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.7W

There certainly hasn't been a WNW movement over the last three hours.
It drifted 0.1 S and 0.2 W. Any comments?

I agree larry....i think there is some....well, i dunno why they say this....i think they are -removed- this thing....

So, hubbie and I are not losing our minds, or our math skills???? I have noticed a few strange things here in the Myrtle beach area as well. During Charlie I did not see as much activity here as I have with this one. Of course, the effects of Katrina are still foremost in everyones minds but still....

With Charley they had a mandatory evacuation and roadblocks all over town. What strange things are they doing for O? I have seen very little activity in MB.

[NCHurricane]

Who's -removed- may I ask?

He's referring to the TPC/NHC.

[deltadog03]

Who's -removed- may I ask?

He's referring to the TPC/NHC.

hint hint....i don't want people to jump down my throat....lol...i mean we will see what happens in the end, but, i think there is too much gfs bias....

[NCWeatherChic]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE SEP 13 2005

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.7W

There certainly hasn't been a WNW movement over the last three hours.
It drifted 0.1 S and 0.2 W. Any comments?

I agree larry....i think there is some....well, i dunno why they say this....i think they are -removed- this thing....

-removed->>>>hmmm
Here's some -removed- for ya. I wish that I can get some light rain here, ummm, maybe just breezy to cool things off, let's see, oh yeah some long lost relative that I never heard off leaves me their fortune worth billions of dollars so I can buy an island and buy the electric company so I can lower electric bills for the middle class and poverty stricten. I also wish that this storm doesn't knock out my power so I have to use a gas powered generator that smells of gas fumes when running, but would still need windows open so that it stays cool inside but wish that this doesn't happen so that I don't have to worry about the fact that my 9mth old son has a trach for a floppy airway and those fumes would be a serious irritant to his lungs and he needs his humidification running to his trach collar and his Pulse Oximeter needs to give me 24/7 readings of his Heartrate and oxygen saturation. Lastly, I wish that he can get his trach out very soon!

[superfly]

Sure looks like a subtropical storm.

[MBismyPlayground]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE SEP 13 2005

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 77.7W

There certainly hasn't been a WNW movement over the last three hours.
It drifted 0.1 S and 0.2 W. Any comments?

I agree larry....i think there is some....well, i dunno why they say this....i think they are -removed- this thing....

So, hubbie and I are not losing our minds, or our math skills???? I have noticed a few strange things here in the Myrtle beach area as well. During Charlie I did not see as much activity here as I have with this one. Of course, the effects of Katrina are still foremost in everyones minds but still....

With Charley they had a mandatory evacuation and roadblocks all over town. What strange things are they doing for O? I have seen very little activity in MB.

I guess it would depend on who you know......no roadblocks so far......no madatory anything.... YET.... People are on hold, in place and have been since Saturday. And THIS I did not see during Charley.
I will quote one source. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst....

[CronkPSU]

starting to look better again tonight, convection starting to build again off to the NE

[NCWeatherChic]

Is it just me or anyone else getting the feeling this storm isn't going to turn N then NE as NHC states she should? It looks like she heading for GA/SC border and at minimum sothern SC. I just need some rain! I didn't think she was supposed to get so close to GA/SC coast as I see her on satelite.

[oneness]

It's heading north at the moment on the Wilmington loop:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kltx.shtml

[CronkPSU]

definitely not moving due north now...wobble wobble wobbles

i'm guessing it hits right around georgetown

with that big of an eye though i guess it don't matter too much where the "exact" eye hit occurs

[oneness]

I said, and I quote, "It's heading north at the moment on the Wilmington loop"

And it is, regardless of intermittent wobbles or large eye. I did not say due north.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA AGAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 205
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[f5]

definitely not moving due north now...wobble wobble wobbles

i'm guessing it hits right around georgetown

with that big of an eye though i guess it don't matter too much where the "exact" eye hit occurs

Katrina had a large eye except the difference is Katrina was as organized as any Hurricane can get.Maybe Ophelia is trying to copy Katrina

[oneness]

My impression from the sat and radar loops is that more cloud is forming closer to the center of rotation, and thus is still giving an impression of a NW drift due to the places it is forming, but that the actual center of O’s rotation is slowly moving generally northward over the last couple of hours.

[deltadog03]

she is still pretty much heading due WEST...the sat is in its usually lag mode this time of night...the radar looks crappy and a center is VERY hard to see...but, the system as a whole is still moving to the west slooowly...

[oneness]

USN's last plot line shows more northward path occurring earlier with a grazing 'landfall' and sharp turn parallel, but a little further west than the NHC plot.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 091300.gif

[JamesFromMaine2]

Is she maybe starting to reorganize?

[oneness]

The dry air is wrapping right around to the Eastern side now though, but is gradually becoming much more moist to the N and NW.

[oneness]

There's also a much smaller and more distinct eye showing on radar at the moment.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[Coredesat]

Ophelia hits the brakes again:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 130834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN
EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES. THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 992 MB...
29.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...32.0 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN