Franklin Advisories

wxwatcher91 · #141 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:30 am

I think Franklin is going to be a very interesting system... I mean it looks like the saddest thing every on IR but it is sticking together and could strengthen... also the track is the most controversial topic in the weather community right now; did you see how big the NHC cone was??? they have a forecast track but they make it clear that they have no confidence in it either

#142 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:03 am

Saturdays advisories.

#143 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:08 am

set to 65 mph now!!!

779
WHXX01 KWBC 231359
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 1200 050724 0000 050724 1200 050725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.2N 75.4W 29.8N 74.4W 29.8N 73.9W 29.4N 73.7W
BAMM 29.2N 75.4W 30.1N 74.3W 30.4N 74.1W 30.3N 73.7W
A98E 29.2N 75.4W 30.2N 74.3W 30.6N 72.3W 31.1N 71.2W
LBAR 29.2N 75.4W 29.9N 74.2W 30.8N 72.9W 32.1N 70.8W
SHIP 55KTS 61KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 55KTS 61KTS 64KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 1200 050726 1200 050727 1200 050728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.7N 74.0W 27.4N 76.0W 26.8N 79.6W 27.1N 82.6W
BAMM 29.8N 73.7W 28.7N 75.1W 28.3N 78.1W 29.0N 80.5W
A98E 31.2N 69.7W 31.8N 67.6W 32.8N 66.0W 34.5N 65.1W
LBAR 33.9N 67.8W 37.4N 59.6W 43.5N 43.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 47KTS 33KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 47KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.2N LONCUR = 75.4W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 28.1N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 22DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 26.6N LONM24 = 76.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 55NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 20NM

#144 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:39 am

651
WTNT21 KNHC 231438
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z SAT JUL 23 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 55NE 70SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 75.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.1N 73.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.7N 72.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 35SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

#145 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:41 am

Forecast now to become a hurricane.

#146 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:44 am

475
WTNT31 KNHC 231443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT
245 MILES... 390 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND
ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...130 KM..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.4 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

#147 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:00 am

WTNT41 KNHC 231459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATE FRANKLIN
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED...POSSIBLY
EVEN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A DROPSONDE REPORT AT 1337Z MEASURED
SURFACE WINDS OF 59 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE FLIGHT
CREW HAS BEEN ESTIMATING 60-65 KT WINDS...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE
HIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/08...BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS OF
RECON FIXES. THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COLD CDO CLOUD SHIELD AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW
APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS MOST OF ITS ENERGY FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY 5-10 WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
...EXCLUDING THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND GFDL MODELS...NOW SLOWS DOWN
FRANKLIN THROUGH 72 HOURS AND EITHER DISSIPATED THE CYCLONE OR
WAITS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND
ACCELERATE IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNS
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WITH A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WIND FIELD. AS SUCH...SMALL CHANGES IN THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS THAT HAS DEFIED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY GO ON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOVE 995 MB IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...INCRESING NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 29.4N 75.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.1N 73.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.7N 72.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 32.3N 66.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 63.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 59.0W 40 KT

wxwatcher91 · #148 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:02 am

the winds have increased considerably but where's the pressure fall??? Franklin is working opposite of Emily and Dennis...
winds before pressure...

#149 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:04 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:the winds have increased considerably but where's the pressure fall??? Franklin is working opposite of Emily and Dennis...
winds before pressure...

That is because in that area generally there are higher pressures than in other areas of the basin.

wxwatcher91 · #150 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:04 am

cycloneye wrote:[b] FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.

oh lol

wxwatcher91 · #151 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:05 am

cycloneye wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:the winds have increased considerably but where's the pressure fall??? Franklin is working opposite of Emily and Dennis...
winds before pressure...

That is because in that area generally there are higher pressures than in other areas of the basin.

yeah I just read the discussion lol

chris_fit · #152 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:07 am

Can it still loop? :-P

#153 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:13 am

Does anyone know the highest pressure at which a system became a hurricane?

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:17 am

Lowpressure wrote:Does anyone know the highest pressure at which a system became a hurricane?

Hurricane Danny in 2003.

18 / 1800 39.2 53.4 1002 65kt hurricane

Anonymous · #155 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:36 am

No surprise to me. I said yesterday in my video update I thought Franklin would become a hurricane alot sooner than many thought.

#156 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:37 am

cycloneye wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Does anyone know the highest pressure at which a system became a hurricane?

Hurricane Danny in 2003.

18 / 1800 39.2 53.4 1002 65kt hurricane

Luis, when Danny became a hurricane the pressure was 1006 mb.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:38 am

HURAKAN wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Does anyone know the highest pressure at which a system became a hurricane?

Hurricane Danny in 2003.

18 / 1800 39.2 53.4 1002 65kt hurricane

Luis, when Danny became a hurricane the pressure was 1006 mb.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...39.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

oops I found the wrong data but that is the right data.

#158 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:32 pm

Thank you for the responses. Good research cycloneye.

Wnghs2007 · #159 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:33 pm

Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast/Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 21:00Z on July 23, 2005

tropical storm center located near 29.9n 74.3w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the east-northeast or 60 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1001 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 25ne 50se 35sw 0nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 70se 60sw 20nw.
12 ft seas.. 80ne 110se 60sw 20nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 29.9n 74.3w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 29.7n 74.7w

forecast valid 24/0600z 30.4n 73.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 10ne 15se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 25ne 50se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 70se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 30.8n 71.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 10ne 15se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 25ne 50se 10sw 10nw.
34 kt... 60ne 75se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 31.2n 69.6w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 40se 10sw 10nw.
34 kt... 60ne 75se 45sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 31.4n 68.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 75se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 26/1800z 32.1n 65.3w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 75se 30sw 30nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 27/1800z 33.5n 62.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Outlook valid 28/1800z 35.0n 59.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 29.9n 74.3w

next advisory at 24/0300z

forecaster Stewart

$$

yoda · #160 Postby **yoda** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:37 pm

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 23, 2005

...Franklin moving east-northeastward over the open Atlantic...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 29.9 north... longitude 74.3 west or about
295 miles... 475 km... northeast of Great Abaco Island and about
585 miles... 945 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.

Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. While some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next 24 hours...Franklin could still become a hurricane later
tonight or on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
...130 km...mainly east through south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...29.9 N... 74.3 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

Franklin Advisories

Franklin Advisories

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