Hurricane Katrina

[JTD]

The 2 pm advisory is posted 6 or 7 times

[cycloneye]

The 2 pm advisory is posted 6 or 7 times

That was when the board was crawling but I deleited those posts.

[cycloneye]

TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z WED AUG 24 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...
INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 77.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 77.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Amanzi]

Seems like the NNW motion has ceased and we are seeying the NW motion come into play.

[Brent]

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

Oh lovely... due south of me.

[x-y-no]

Seems like the NNW motion has ceased and we are seeying the NW motion come into play.

Actually, I think the past three hours or so have been just barely morth of west, but with the prior movement averaged in, they arrive at that NW "present motion."

Anyway - Cat 1 into Ft. Lauderdale - I can buy that scenario.

[deltadog03]

to me its started a WNW track...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...
INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[jrod]

The last few frames look west to me. If not somewhere around the 280 range. It may take a jog to the north when it hits the gulf stream, thats what the old timers say storms do, I have seen to many that have not dont that so I am skeptical on the gulf stream pushes storms north theory.

Im off to school , gonna miss the waves today and likely tommorow b/c of work and school. Hopefully there will be leftovers Friday.

[gatorcane]

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT

.

Center into the FL straits? That is a mistake.

[Brent]

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT

.

Center into the FL straits? Is that a mistake?

Isn't the water between Southeast Florida and the Bahamas also the Florida Straits???

[gatorcane]

I don't think so. I thought the FL straits was the water between the FL Keys and Bahamas/Cuba.

[Brent]

On Microsoft Streets and Trips it says "Straits of Florida" between Miami and the Bahamas.



It also says the same between the Keys and Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

You are correct Boca Chris...Florida Straights technically is between the Keys and Cuba...That message can't be correct unless she is going to go Southwest...

[x-y-no]

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT

.

Center into the FL straits? Is that a mistake?

Isn't the water between Southeast Florida and the Bahamas also the Florida Straits???

No. The Florida Straits are the area bounded by the Keys on the north, Cuba on the south, the Gulf on the west and the Atlantic on the east.

The advisory is in error.

[gatorcane]

that mistake is really embarrassing if you ask me.

[mahicks]

On Microsoft Streets and Trips it says "Straits of Florida" between Miami and the Bahamas.



It also says the same between the Keys and Cuba.

Great...Even Hurricanes "Run Best on Windows......"

-LOL..

[clfenwi]

Straits of Florida

passage connecting the Gulf of Mexico with the Atlantic Ocean, extending for about 110 miles (180 km) between the Florida Keys, U.S., on the north and Cuba and the Bahamas on the south and southeast. The straits mark the area where the Florida Current, the initial part of the Gulf Stream, flows eastward out of the Gulf of Mexico with a mean surface velocity of 4 to 6 miles (6.5 to 9.5 km) per hour…

http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-9034632

[SouthFLTropics]

Like I said before, between the keys and cuba...the message is in error. I agree boca chris, that's embarassing. You would think they would know better. You know there is somebody down in the keys right now that read that and is freaking out!!!

[clfenwi]

Like I said before, between the keys and cuba...the message is in error. I agree boca chris, that's embarassing. You would think they would know better. You know there is somebody down in the keys right now that read that and is freaking out!!!

Please inform the Navy that their map is wrong: http://nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif