Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[curtadams]

Is the GFDL pretty accurate?

In terms of track, it's as good as any model - meaning better than climo and better than any met locked in a room without models. It still has a large error, larger than the NHC track. In terms of intensity, it's the best we have but it's not very good. It strongly overestimates storm intensity early in its run (for majors) and size late in the run. I think a skilled met can still beat the GFDL on intensity. I would absolutely take the NHC's Cat 2 estimate over the GFDL's Cat 3. That said, there's a huge error on any intensity forecast.

[caneman]

I was wondering faster motion now does that possibly mean further north track.

Couple things. Seen it many times. Faster motion equals further North. IMHO. Faster motion equals greater storm surge and wind. And less impact from cooler waters. And lastly people play up the shear too much. Gabrielle should have actually been a Hurricane and actually was getting stronger as it moved NE. It it enters the channel as a Cat. 3 or 4 I wouldn't expect anymore than a lessening of one Catagory. Which will be offset because you have to add winds for the fast motion, higher storm surge and less chance of cooler water weakening. The good news, the storm would be over and done with quickly.

[artist]

Chigger_Lopez - I asked that question last night - and yes- it would help to reatin her strength if she goes thru the everglades. Also Derek said it is possible to have cat 2or 3 winds here in Palm Beach County.

[Brent]

Potential excellent in the Channel, but poor at best closing in on FL.

I'm wondering if the fast motion might limit potential weakening. If this were going to be coming in much slower then I could see significant weakening, but not if it's flying NE.

It will weaken somewhat due to 81-82 deg GOM water and shear starting on the system - but, the GFDL accelerates this storm to 12-18 mph on SAT morning. Not going to decrease much (i.e. like Charley) at that forward speed - potential for much inland wind damage with this one.

That's why I am thinking... and if it's a strong 3 or a 4... then it's gonna easily be a Cat 2, and maybe a Cat 3 at landfall and the fast motion(especially across the relatively nothing Everglades) would likely keep it a hurricane til it moves back over water.

[caneman]

stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics

Know which models to follow!

[Brent]

stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics

Nope... the GFDL is just south of Tampa Bay(see the odd shape with the bay?) That's Tampa...

[caneman]

stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics

Nope... the GFDL is just south of Tampa Bay(see the odd shape with the bay?) That's Tampa...

You wold think he would know that living in Sarasota. None the less, the Euro takes it here to. Those 2 models I'm most concerned with

[cjrciadt]

[Brent]

Alright... who gave the models crayons again?

[Rob H]

GFS has shifted north also, but not as far as GFDL

[StormFury]

well post the GFS

GFDL likes to say Tampa
GFS so far likes South Florida

[linkerweather]

00z GFS was the Keys
06z GFS more in line with Naples

00z GFDL was near Ft, Myers
06z GFDL near SRQ

[caneman]

00z GFS was the Keys
06z GFS more in line with Naples

00z GFDL was near Ft, Myers
06z GFDL near SRQ

Hey josh. Don't know about you but I'm getting concerned with the GFDL and Euro coming to Sarasota and now with the faster motion. Thinking Tampa Bay area to include Sarasota is more and more in bullseye

[fci]

Ok folks post away all your comments,if you have sat pics of Wilma and the model runs.I suspect that this thread will break the record of 110 pages of Katrina.

christy will personally ensure that as long as homestead has a chance..

Wow, you are brutal.
And have a long memory!!!

[ameriwx2003]

The EURO track makes the most sense IMHO.. I don't buy into the GFS track of that sharp of a right hook across Florida.. the Track of a more SW to NE line makes more sense.. We will see.

[linkerweather]

What I urged to the viewers last night was to be aware that there will be a hurricane making landfall on the west coast of Florida (hopefully south of TBW) (that hope was again for our viewers, not to have bad things happen to our south) but to not yet worry. I would like to see how far north WIlma is when it seems apparent that its westward motion has finished in order to be very specific. That should be late Thursday. But definately pay attention to trends within the models (if there are any). If you see the 12z globals shifting north and then 00z you might want to get a bit more concerned around the SRQ area. Keep in mind as far as surge is concerned, the best place to be within a storm when it is approaching quickly from the west would be on the north side. Thats all for now, I need to rest before going in to work this afternoon.

[Noah]

00z GFS was the Keys
06z GFS more in line with Naples

00z GFDL was near Ft, Myers
06z GFDL near SRQ

Linkerweather please check your pm.

[fci]

:eek: Holy Crap!! :eek:

Ah..... so good to see you here, girl!!!!

I have been waiting for the Holy Crap.

[tracyswfla]

What I urged to the viewers last night was to be aware that there will be a hurricane making landfall on the west coast of Florida (hopefully south of TBW) (that hope was again for our viewers, not to have bad things happen to our south) but to not yet worry. I would like to see how far north WIlma is when it seems apparent that its westward motion has finished in order to be very specific. That should be late Thursday. But definately pay attention to trends within the models (if there are any). If you see the 12z globals shifting north and then 00z you might want to get a bit more concerned around the SRQ area. Keep in mind as far as surge is concerned, the best place to be within a storm when it is approaching quickly from the west would be on the north side. Thats all for now, I need to rest before going in to work this afternoon.

Thanks! Get your rest now, I think you are going to need it!

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z TUE OCT 18 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 50SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 80.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 80.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN