Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...FOR NOW....

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[superfly]

Looks like ERC is nearing completion, inner eye is collapsing and cold cloud tops are surrounding the outer eye.

[Foladar0]

Looks like ERC is nearing completion, inner eye is collapsing and cold cloud tops are surrounding the outer eye.

Wow, if that's true .. that was amazingly fast and could strengthen well since it didn't lose much at all.

[Scorpion]

Looks like its starting to pull up on satellite.

[caneman]

Wow look at the latest NASA shot. It look like the eye is ready to clear out. Look at the size of what might be the new eye. You can see it outlined.


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[cycloneye]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

6z GFDL tracks thru Key West and Miami.The dark blue line at graphic is the 6z GFDL.

[tampastorm]

LBAR and A98E thorugh that Tampa bay area? How reliable are they?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She can see!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[joe_koehle]

She can see!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

uhh, what about that means she can see? the "eye" is ragged, and filled in.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its starting to come out....

[nequad]

Cycloneye-that is not the 6Z GFDL...that is the OZ GFDL. The 6Z should be out shotly.

[Jevo]

LBAR and A98E thorugh that Tampa bay area? How reliable are they?

They are both very early NHC models. The A98E is more of a climatology model than anything else. Not really wise to put any stock in it at all... Although, along with the LBAR does not really hop around like the track models

A98E: The A98E model is a statistical-dynamical prediction model that uses geopotential heights from the GFS forecast to modify a CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) track forecast. It is the early NHC98 Statistical-Dynamical Model run for the Atlantic.

The LBAR is run off of Global model data, which is not the type of models you want to run with a hurricane as the main point of intrest. Another early model, not the most reliable compared to todays better track models

LBAR (Limited area BARotropic)...
This model is a two-dimensional track prediction model that is initialized with vertically-averaged winds and upper atmospheric air pressures from the Aviation run of the MRF global model. An idealized symmetric vortex is added to the global analysis to represent the storm's circulation. The boundary conditions are obtained from the global model forecast. LBAR is the NHC's implementation of the GFDL VICAR model. (VICBAR stands for Vic Ooyama's Barotropic model.) The storm environment domain analysis is produced with a two-dimensional spectral application of finite element representation, using all available data (rawindsondes, cloud drift winds, aircraft observations, etc.), with the NCEP global model analysis used as a low level background field. The vortex domain analysis consists of synthetic observations representing storm circulation and current storm motion. The vortex is prescribed to be the same size and intensity in all directions (axisymmetric), with winds increasing linearly from the center to the radius of maximum winds. Wind speeds beyond the radius of maximum winds are prescribed to decrease exponentially to the edge of the storm. In the event of multiple tropical cyclones, synthetic vortices are included for each storm. The simplicity of barotropic models means they can be run quickly on inexpensive computers. In the LBAR prediction model, the shallow water equations are solved on a series of nested grid meshes on a Mercator projection. The inner meshes move to remain centered on the storm, while the outer mesh is fixed geographically. Time-dependent boundary conditions from the AVN model run are applied outward from a transition zone between 1500 and 2500 kin. LBAR runs on a 6-hr forecast cycle and produces forecasts out to 72 hr.

Hope this helps

[nequad]

Here is the 6Z GFDL...


551
WHXX04 KWBC 201126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 84.7 295./ 7.0
6 18.4 85.3 297./ 6.9
12 18.8 86.0 301./ 7.4
18 19.5 86.1 350./ 6.8
24 20.2 86.6 327./ 8.6
30 21.0 86.9 336./ 8.1
36 21.5 87.1 350./ 5.5
42 22.2 87.0 7./ 7.0
48 22.4 86.9 25./ 2.1
54 22.8 86.4 51./ 5.6
60 23.2 85.8 57./ 7.2
66 23.6 84.9 63./ 9.4
72 24.2 83.9 62./10.4
78 25.0 82.8 55./13.0
84 26.0 81.3 54./17.2
90 27.4 79.5 54./20.8
96 29.0 77.0 55./27.2
102 31.9 74.1 46./38.3
108 36.0 70.5 41./50.6
114 40.8 67.6 31./52.7
120 44.8 67.3 4./40.3
126 47.9 69.3 327./33.8

[superfly]

Eye is starting to clear out.

[O Town]

Looks like she is starting to tighten up again as well. Getting uniform.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like maybe a little more strengthening.

[superfly]

She won't strengthen until the eye clears out, but after it does, there is certainly potential to reach cat 5 again.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Oh, dear.

That's a large eye.

[jpigott]

this has yucatan peninsula written all over it unless its starts moving hard to the north soon

[CronkPSU]

well they project it to skim the yucatan....anyone starting to think with this huge eye and the circular pattern the storm seems to be taking, once it opens up we will be talking the a word again?