Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Brent]

Is there really a difference between a 70 mph storm and an 80 mph hurricane? No.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z WED SEP 14 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 77.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W...NEAR OUTER BANKS
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[cvalkan4]

Is there really a difference between a 70 mph storm and an 80 mph hurricane? No.

Well, yes, since damage increases exponentially with wind speed. But I get your point, that it's not in the same league as 150 or even 120 mph.

[jasons2k]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How did u u get the buoy data and TPC plots on there? Thanks!

[cjrciadt]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How did u u get the buoy data and TPC plots on there? Thanks!

Yeah it looks 100 times better then my setup now.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

AT 11 AM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. SOUTHPORT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
64 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...33.7 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[tallywx]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

I just checked on CW3870 (the station that was supposedly showing those winds), and it was an error of your software. The MESOWEST site, which quality verifies the data, shows that CW3870 hit a peak wind gust of 68 mph (so far) at 10:15 edt. Right now they have E at 39 mph gusts to 63 mph (peak sustained was 42 mph at 10:00 edt). BTW, CW3870 is located in Wilmington, NC.

http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/ ... 0&time=GMT

[cjrciadt]

WTH?? UKMET.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91
THAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50
NMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY
36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA
WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...
ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.7N 77.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W 75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS
36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Derek Ortt]

we kept the winds at 70kt to be safe as well... against my will

[skysummit]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How did u u get the buoy data and TPC plots on there? Thanks!

Yeah it looks 100 times better then my setup now.

You need to subscribe to Allisonhouse's data. It's only like 11 bucks a month and he provides a better server than the NWS plus you get Metar data, storm reports and other goodies

Here you go.... http://nexrad.allisonhouse.com/

[jlauderdal]

Is there really a difference between a 70 mph storm and an 80 mph hurricane? No.

yes there is if its the difference between your power line coming down or not or debris coming into your window, etc.

[skysummit]

Is there really a difference between a 70 mph storm and an 80 mph hurricane? No.

yes there is if its the difference between your power line coming down or not or debris coming into your window, etc.

Also...the higher the winds, even 5mph, the higher the gusts.

[seahawkjd]

Just my observation on the wind debate. I have been through over a dozen hurricane in the last 20 years. I can't remember any of them having agreement between what the NHC said the winds were and what buoys and weather stations were picking up. We always used to joke about it, but for what ever reason they never match up, at least thats been my experience.

[jasons2k]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How did u u get the buoy data and TPC plots on there? Thanks!

Yeah it looks 100 times better then my setup now.

You need to subscribe to Allisonhouse's data. It's only like 11 bucks a month and he provides a better server than the NWS plus you get Metar data, storm reports and other goodies

Here you go.... http://nexrad.allisonhouse.com/

Thx!

[seahawkjd]

Dr. Lyons on TWC just reported they've upped the winds to 85 mph with a revision of the 11am.

[cycloneye]

WTNT61 KNHC 141546
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE OPHELIA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
85 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

And let me add:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance and NOAA land-based
Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is still
possible during the next 24 hours before landfall occurs."

From 8am advisory. So much for blackberry.

Land-based Doppler radars CANNOT measure surface winds except for within 5-10 miles of the radar. The Earths' curvature means that those radar beams are passing about 5000-10,000 feet above the surface at Ophelia's location. So that Doppler radar is measuring flight level winds, not surface winds.

Now, keep in mind that I'm not broadcasting my opinions over the airwaves to the general public. This is simply an online discussion group. I would not have told everyone to stay on the beaches, this is nothing to worry about. I'm simply stating facts about actual observations as the storm passes various reporting points. And those facts do not support Ophelia being classified as a hurricane.

Show me an actual surface MEASUREMENT of wind speeds 65 kts or greater, please.

Have to go back to work now.

My question to you would be doesn't this probably happen more often than the average Joe thinks? Storms are given higher actual winds....Some storms have more recon data ....land base related...bouy data ...etc... Or am I wrong here.


Jim

One thing to remember is that storms are classified according to the MAXIMUM sustained wind, not the average winds around the center. That maximum wind may occur only briefly in a small part of the storm. For the most part, average winds may be well below the maximum possible value. In this case, the NHC is clearly being very generous with their wind estimates just to keep the public out of the area. You can't argue with that too much. That's why on our forecasts for a 75 mph hurricane we'll list the wind forecast as a range from 55-75 mph.

But I have to deal with specific effects of the storm in our forecasts. For my customers along the North Carolina coast, I'm saying that they should expect sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 60-70 mph in the northern eyewall. These winds have been verified by a number of reporting stations so far. Now that's not to say that there isn't possibly a tiny area of true 75 mph sustained wind south of the center somewhere.

[wxman57]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How is radar measuring surface winds that far out from the radar location? The beam travels in a straight line, getting higher and higher above the surface with each mile traveled.

[DESTRUCTION5]

WTNT61 KNHC 141546
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE OPHELIA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
85 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

Wow will she get to Cat 2!?