Hurricane Katrina

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#1661 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:01 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 50
Latest Recon Position: 29 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 15:47:00Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 233 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 63 mph; Radar Altitude: 10390 ft
Ob #02: 15:47:30Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 243 ft; Wind: ENE (77°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10400 ft
Ob #03: 15:48:00Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 246 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10410 ft
Ob #04: 15:48:30Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 253 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 61 mph; Radar Altitude: 10413 ft
Ob #05: 15:49:00Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 256 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10420 ft
Ob #06: 15:49:30Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 259 ft; Wind: E (83°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10417 ft
Ob #07: 15:50:00Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 262 ft; Wind: E (84°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10423 ft
Ob #08: 15:50:30Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 262 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 60 mph; Radar Altitude: 10423 ft
Ob #09: 15:51:00Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 269 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 39°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10433 ft
Ob #10: 15:51:30Z; 28.5°N 89.7°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 272 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10430 ft
Ob #11: 15:52:00Z; 28.5°N 89.7°W; PA: 10200 ft; D-Value: 289 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10650 ft
Ob #12: 15:52:30Z; 28.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 10223 ft; D-Value: 295 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10679 ft
Ob #13: 15:53:00Z; 28.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 10194 ft; D-Value: 302 ft; Wind: E (86°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10656 ft
Ob #14: 15:53:30Z; 28.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 10187 ft; D-Value: 305 ft; Wind: E (88°) @ 56 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 56 mph; Radar Altitude: 10656 ft
Ob #15: 15:54:00Z; 28.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 10194 ft; D-Value: 312 ft; Wind: E (88°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 42°F; Max Wind: 54 mph; Radar Altitude: 10666 ft
Ob #16: 15:54:30Z; 28.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 10177 ft; D-Value: 312 ft; Wind: E (89°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Max Wind: 53 mph; Radar Altitude: 10653 ft
Ob #17: 15:55:00Z; 28.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 10302 ft; D-Value: 328 ft; Wind: E (87°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 52 mph; Radar Altitude: 10791 ft
Ob #18: 15:55:30Z; 28.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 10997 ft; D-Value: 397 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 52 mph; Radar Altitude: 11558 ft
Ob #19: 15:56:00Z; 28.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 11798 ft; D-Value: 463 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 50 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 51 mph; Radar Altitude: 12425 ft
Ob #20: 15:56:30Z; 28.8°N 89.9°W; PA: 12175 ft; D-Value: 495 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 12838 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#1662 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:06 am

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 30
Time: 1532Z
Latitude: 27.5°N
Longitude: 89.0°W
Location: 134 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (70°) @ 79 mph
Temperature: 52°F
Dewpoint: 48°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 9900 feet
Surface Wind: NE (60°) @ 75 mph
Remarks: None
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#1663 Postby Cookiely » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:12 am

Will Katrina leave us any buoys for the next storm? CNN was saying they had lost contact with two of them.
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#1664 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:16 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Flt Data Number: 51
Latest Recon Position: 27 mi WNW of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 15:57:00Z; 28.9°N 89.9°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 502 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 47 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 35°F; Max Wind: 48 mph; Radar Altitude: 12858 ft
Ob #02: 15:57:30Z; 28.9°N 89.9°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 505 ft; Wind: ENE (77°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 45 mph; Radar Altitude: 12858 ft
Ob #03: 15:58:00Z; 28.9°N 89.9°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 502 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 44 mph; Radar Altitude: 12858 ft
Ob #04: 15:58:30Z; 29°N 89.9°W; PA: 12185 ft; D-Value: 502 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 44 mph; Radar Altitude: 12851 ft
Ob #05: 15:59:00Z; 29°N 90°W; PA: 12195 ft; D-Value: 509 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 12867 ft
Ob #06: 15:59:30Z; 29°N 90°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 512 ft; Wind: E (81°) @ 43 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 36°F; Max Wind: 43 mph; Radar Altitude: 12867 ft
Ob #07: 16:00:00Z; 29.1°N 90°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 515 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 12867 ft
Ob #08: 16:00:30Z; 29.1°N 90°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 522 ft; Wind: E (84°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 39 mph; Radar Altitude: 12877 ft
Ob #09: 16:01:00Z; 29.1°N 90°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 525 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 39°F; Max Wind: 44 mph; Radar Altitude: 12884 ft
Ob #10: 16:01:30Z; 29.2°N 90.1°W; PA: 12182 ft; D-Value: 522 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 43 mph; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 44 mph; Radar Altitude: 12871 ft
Ob #11: 16:02:00Z; 29.2°N 90.1°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 505 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 44°F; Dewpt: 36°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 12861 ft
Ob #12: 16:02:30Z; 29.2°N 90.1°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 489 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 12844 ft
Ob #13: 16:03:00Z; 29.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 12185 ft; D-Value: 469 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 39 mph; Radar Altitude: 12818 ft
Ob #14: 16:03:30Z; 29.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 479 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 12838 ft
Ob #15: 16:04:00Z; 29.2°N 90.3°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 469 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 42°F; Dewpt: 39°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 12825 ft
Ob #16: 16:04:30Z; 29.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 12192 ft; D-Value: 509 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 40°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 43 mph; Radar Altitude: 12864 ft
Ob #17: 16:05:00Z; 29.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 12182 ft; D-Value: 515 ft; Wind: E (79°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 12861 ft
Ob #18: 16:05:30Z; 29.3°N 90.4°W; PA: 12198 ft; D-Value: 512 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 12877 ft
Ob #19: 16:06:00Z; 29.3°N 90.4°W; PA: 12185 ft; D-Value: 518 ft; Wind: E (80°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 38°F; Max Wind: 37 mph; Radar Altitude: 12871 ft
Ob #20: 16:06:30Z; 29.3°N 90.5°W; PA: 12188 ft; D-Value: 522 ft; Wind: ENE (78°) @ 36 mph; Temp: 40°F; Dewpt: 40°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 12874 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#1665 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:26 am

WindRunner wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
Brent wrote:INITIAL 28/1500Z 26.0N 88.1W 150 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W 145 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W 140 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 40.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 45.0N 77.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1200Z 52.0N 69.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


89.6 is the farthest west forecast now... slowly edging away from NO. If this continues, then they just might escape the doomsday scenario.


Don't be too sure about that. They don't travel point-to-point, they do curve. I wouldn't be surprised to see the actual CPA to be more like 4 miles east of NOLA, unfortunately.


Windrunner's point is absolutely correct. This is the point I was emphasizing in threads a few months ago. The projected track should imo utilize curves rather than straight line segments between two points. This, in fact, would make the projected track closer to NO (WEST of 89.6) than what is shown when curves are not utilized.
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#1666 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:28 am

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 17
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 31
Time: 1559Z
Latitude: 29.0°N
Longitude: 90.0°W
Location: 14 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 12200 feet
Flight level wind: E (80°) @ 41 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 36°F
Weather: Rainshowers
D-value: 500 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: LAST REPORT.
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#1667 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:33 am

Well... Mission XVII is over.

Mission XIX (a NOAA fix flight) is taking off soon.

I'm taking a nap, so I won't be posting observations. Raw obs at http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

I'll be up and around for the evening mission from the AF (Mission XX)
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#1668 Postby Andy_L » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:45 am

heres a question that i don't think i've seen asked or seen the answer to before...at what wind speed would Recon STOP flying though the eyewall for flight safetly reasons?? anyone know???

Cheers

Andy
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#1669 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:48 am

URNT11 KWBC 281633
97779 16334 10279 82908 33000 15030 09033 /3145
RMK NOAA3 1812A KATRINA OB 01 KWBC
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#1670 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:54 am

Andy_L wrote:heres a question that i don't think i've seen asked or seen the answer to before...at what wind speed would Recon STOP flying though the eyewall for flight safetly reasons?? anyone know???

Cheers

Andy


I don't think they would stop for anything under 200 at the very least, much likely a higher number.
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#1671 Postby bvigal » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:00 pm

I wouldn't worry too much about any effect upon monitoring the next storm. The bouys may just need a repairs/servicing. Even if they are completely lost, NOAA can always drop some "floater" buoys if they need data on a specific storm that can't be determined by satellite, dropsonde, etc.

One does have to wonder what it's like out there on those buoys right now though, huh? :wink:
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#1672 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:13 pm

URNT11 KWBC 281659
97779 16594 10276 85208 38600 15049 06513 /8016
RMK NOAA3 1812A KATRINA OB 02 KWBC

RECCO OBSERVATION
Flight: NOAA3 1812A
Observation #: 2
Time: 16:59Z
Location: 27.6N 85.2W
Altitude: 3860 meters
Flight-level wind: SSE (150°) at 49 knots
Temperature: 6C
Dew Point: -1C
Weather: Overcast
D-Value: 160 meters
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#1673 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:20 pm

URNT40 KWBC 281710
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
170030 2738 08517 12654 +0506 147052 +058 +029 147053 037 003
170100 2738 08520 12653 +0503 146051 +062 -003 147051 037 003
170130 2737 08522 12655 +0499 147049 +060 +020 145050 036 003
170200 2737 08525 12657 +0496 145048 +055 +041 144048 037 002
170230 2737 08528 12657 +0493 148051 +054 +046 149051 037 003
170300 2737 08531 12658 +0488 149053 +053 +046 150054 037 003
170330 2737 08534 12652 +0483 150054 +052 +043 150055 039 003
170400 2737 08537 12655 +0480 150054 +053 +034 150056 039 003
170430 2736 08539 12654 +0475 149057 +052 +037 148057 040 004
170500 2736 08542 12651 +0470 147058 +055 +033 148059 041 003
170530 2736 08545 12646 +0465 144057 +056 +033 146058 040 004
170600 2736 08548 12647 +0461 142055 +058 +030 144056 040 003
170630 2736 08551 12645 +0456 144057 +061 +029 145058 039 004
170700 2736 08553 12645 +0451 146057 +062 +021 145058 040 003
170730 2736 08556 12642 +0446 146059 +063 +018 144059 040 004
170800 2735 08559 12641 +0445 144060 +064 +017 144060 041 004
170830 2735 08601 12643 +0440 143061 +064 +019 142061 042 004
170900 2735 08604 12638 +0434 141062 +068 +015 141062 043 003
170930 2735 08607 12641 +0428 141061 +062 +027 141062 044 003
171000 2735 08609 12639 +0423 141060 +064 +028 142061 045 003

62 knots so far. Surface estimate (SFMR) 45 knots.
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#1674 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:24 pm

I just saw Katrina on the vis. sat image at NHC site.Shes the scariest looking bi*** I've ever seen :eek:
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#1675 Postby bvigal » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:26 pm

Does it strike anyone else as purely amazing what has happened in only 5 days?!! :eek: :eek:

WONT41 KNHC 231837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH. ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1676 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:26 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... 250&time=3

Special site for buoy data for Kat.
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#1677 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:29 pm

I wonder if this is the quickest on record for a TS to go all the way to cstrong cat 5. :eek: This is definately history we are witnessing.Sadly
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#1678 Postby StormsAhead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:34 pm

URNT40 KWBC 281720
NOAA3 1812A KATRINA
171030 2735 08612 12638 +0416 140061 +066 +018 141061 045 003
171100 2735 08615 12646 +0411 141060 +062 +020 141060 044 004
171130 2735 08617 12643 +0407 139060 +064 +011 141060 045 003
171200 2735 08620 12640 +0402 138060 +065 +013 137061 046 004
171230 2735 08623 12641 +0392 139063 +070 +010 138064 047 003
171300 2734 08625 12636 +0386 137064 +068 +016 137066 049 004
171330 2734 08628 12639 +0378 138065 +065 +018 138066 048 004
171400 2734 08631 12630 +0371 134065 +067 +022 134065 048 005
171430 2734 08633 12644 +0367 135066 +064 +033 135066 047 005
171500 2734 08636 12636 +0360 138066 +064 +043 137066 048 006
171530 2734 08639 12640 +0353 141064 +063 +047 142065 049 007
171600 2734 08642 12640 +0344 139062 +065 +046 140063 049 008
171630 2734 08644 12424 +0324 134065 +066 +050 133068 050 009
171700 2734 08647 11638 +0252 130075 +077 +058 131077 049 010
171730 2734 08650 10680 +0186 127075 +095 +066 127075 051 009
171800 2734 08653 10073 +0145 125078 +108 +079 125078 050 014
171830 2734 08656 10017 +0137 130069 +100 +089 127074 053 009
171900 2734 08658 10021 +0128 135069 +097 +097 134072 999 999
171930 2733 08701 10003 +0120 144081 +092 +091 146082 048 014
172000 2731 08702 10017 +0113 146081 +102 +086 147082 049 007

82 knots, surface estimate 53 knots
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#1679 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:35 pm

The outter bands are blowing up strong. With the eye wall becoming better defined. I expect it to keep getting stronger.
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#1680 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:37 pm

The outter bands are blowing up strong. With the eye wall becoming better defined. I expect it to keep getting stronger.
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