Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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superfly

#1721 Postby superfly » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:56 am

And we have our new eye albeit still ragged.

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Ivanhater
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#1722 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:59 am

all important 12z gfs is rolling in, i believe this has the noaa jet data in it... 30 hours

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mikemiller18
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#1723 Postby mikemiller18 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:03 am

looks like it is going NW now. still has a chance to miss the yucatan?
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Derek Ortt

#1724 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:06 am

the GFS often has severe problems with the NOAA data

lets wait for the other global mdoels, which do seem to handle the NOAA data well
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#1725 Postby n o o d l z » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:06 am

The new GFS appears to be speeding it up a little (in comparison with the last GFS run)...doesn't look like a stall on the Yucatan anymore...
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#1726 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:07 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the GFS often has severe problems with the NOAA data

lets wait for the other global mdoels, which do seem to handle the NOAA data well



good point, this might be a bad run then
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#1727 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:08 am

Well hello there Ms. Wilma

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#1728 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:08 am

Anyone has the 12z NOGAPS?
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#1729 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:09 am

its MRS..... lol...she is married..
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#1730 Postby linkerweather » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:11 am

n o o d l z wrote:The new GFS appears to be speeding it up a little (in comparison with the last GFS run)...doesn't look like a stall on the Yucatan anymore...


Quick glance at GFS from 12z shows that Wilma hardly moves from 36 hours to 66 hours, stalled near Cancun.
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#1731 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:12 am

I don't see any of the northward component yet. Looks as if the eye is beginning to clear out and may have looked as a jog, overall the system still seems to be moving WNW at a slower pace though which may be an indication of a change in direction.

Hopefully, as if it does not turn fairly soon, I'm about to lose one of my favorite vacation spots.
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#1732 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:12 am

deltadog03 wrote:its MRS..... lol...she is married..


Wouldn't she be widowed since FREDerick died back in 1979. :D
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#1733 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:12 am

12z nogaps only out to 24 hours

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#1734 Postby x-y-no » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:14 am

Wow ...

12Z GFS has it stalled over the NE tip of the Yucatan through 72 hours.
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#1735 Postby Liberty30 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:15 am

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the 12z NOGAPS?


NOGAPS also stalls out Wilma over the Yucatan. :eek: Shocked to see it join the GFS with this scenario.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 535.1602.4
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#1736 Postby n o o d l z » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:16 am

linkerweather wrote:
n o o d l z wrote:The new GFS appears to be speeding it up a little (in comparison with the last GFS run)...doesn't look like a stall on the Yucatan anymore...


Quick glance at GFS from 12z shows that Wilma hardly moves from 36 hours to 66 hours, stalled near Cancun.


Sorry, I was basing it off of the <36hr GFS run that was posted at the time in comparison to the 06z...short-term it sped it up quite a bit it seemed, but it ended up stalling it anyways...
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#1737 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:18 am

Liberty30 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Anyone has the 12z NOGAPS?


NOGAPS also stalls out Wilma over the Yucatan. :eek: Shocked to see it join the GFS with this scenario.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 535.1602.4


Yes very worrisom for the folks in Yucatan if that happens but better for Florida as it will weaken bigtime.
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Derek Ortt

#1738 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:19 am

thereis a weakness in the ridge to the nroth, no dubt

However, due to the very low pressure of the hurricane, this weakness may dynamically still act as a ridge since there is still a decent PGF associated with it, just do the the hurricanes low pressure. This helped steer Ivan farther west than expected

that said, if this does make the Yucatan, its not going far inland
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#1739 Postby n o o d l z » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:19 am

Wow, I'm guess a big track change is in line for the 5pm update now..
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#1740 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:21 am

Derek Ortt wrote:thereis a weakness in the ridge to the nroth, no dubt

However, due to the very low pressure of the hurricane, this weakness may dynamically still act as a ridge since there is still a decent PGF associated with it, just do the the hurricanes low pressure. This helped steer Ivan farther west than expected

that said, if this does make the Yucatan, its not going far inland


I have a question for you or whomever else. If she does happen to stall over the Yuc. Would this be b/c the trough passed her by? If so, wouldn't high pressure build behind the trough and block her from going north any further and make her continue to go west, and eventually into Mexico?
Last edited by skysummit on Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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