Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Ivanhater]

90 hours, starting to move

[deuzie]

Will this make the track more north or south as it heads to florida....or does this mean another direction? Sorry if this is a stupid question, just have been sitting on pins and needles on what this probably will do....

[nequad]

NGP is only out to 72 hours...here is the 72 hour plot...

[Nimbus]

Since both GPS and NOGAPS stall the track near or over the Yucatan it sounds like a real mess for Mexico.

The delay may also mean she will not make such a fast exit to the northeast over Florida. Gulf waters are still warm enough for some reintensification especially if the she misses the low over the southeast resulting in less shear.

[6SpeedTA95]

NGP is only out to 72 hours...here is the 72 hour plot...

at the rate that thing is moving the hurricane it'll take it till thanksgiving to make landfall in the US.

[skysummit]

Pro Mets.....

If she misses this trough ALL TOGETHER, wouldn't high pressure build in behind the front and force her to continue West around the High, or even WSW?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Defineatly NW now..

[nequad]

She won't miss the connection. This will be a full latitude trof once it amplifies. Good news is it will be considerably weaker, probably, when she reaches Florida.

[quandary]

Wilma's eye is starting to make a partial comeback, now visible on IR and watervapor, though still not on visible. On watervapor, a coil pattern can be easily observed, once that coil returns to a solid shield of purple or even reds, Wilma will likely be a cat 5 again. It is unlikely that she'll make it past 890 or beat her record of 882, but when we start talking about the 800s... now for the third (correction, god knows how many because Rita and Wilma have made multiple attempts and successes at it) time this year (we only talked about it with Katrina...)... well... we must remember that this is the 800s, which were only seen 3 times before this year.

[Blown Away]

Hard to deny a N component now.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[skysummit]

Hard to deny a N component now.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

I don't think people are "denying" anything. They're just calling what they see.

[Derek Ortt]

not sure what any of the north turn people are looking at

it is still moving at a 290-295 heading. Watch the large eye, not the wobbles or outflow

[vaffie]

Pro Mets.....

If she misses this trough ALL TOGETHER, wouldn't high pressure build in behind the front and force her to continue West around the High, or even WSW?

I'm not a pro, but I posed the same question yesterday-it really depends. We will see. It is a little plausible, but this front looks like it might be strong enough eventually to pull it out, but if it continues to track wnw into the Yucatan, it might still be able to miss the trough. Who knows at this stage. No model I know has that scenario yet.

[skysummit]

not sure what any of the north turn people are looking at

it is still moving at a 290-295 heading. Watch the large eye, not the wobbles or outflow

That's exactly what I see....no "definate" north turn yet. I see the eye that's rotating on the north side that's giving an illusion of northern motion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

not sure what any of the north turn people are looking at

it is still moving at a 290-295 heading. Watch the large eye, not the wobbles or outflow

Looks NW to me Right along the NHC paths...As for the Stall Looks quite unlikley...

[canegrl04]

She could regain cat 5 status

[Weatherfreak14]

Eye is really getting its act together. Expect a CAT 5 by 5pm Adv.

[Blown Away]

not sure what any of the north turn people are looking at

it is still moving at a 290-295 heading. Watch the large eye, not the wobbles or outflow

That's exactly what I see....no "definate" north turn yet. I see the eye that's rotating on the north side that's giving an illusion of northern motion.

Ummm, less than 2 hours ago lots of posts saying Wilma's heading at 270. That has changed.

[mikemiller18]

Definite north component.

[cycloneye]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

12z GFDL at graphic in dark blue line.It tracks almost with the nhc one.