TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#181 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:26 am

WHXX04 KWBC 191120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 86.0 320./ 5.0
6 16.7 86.2 256./ 1.6
12 16.9 86.4 307./ 3.3
18 17.1 87.0 297./ 5.5
24 17.6 87.2 333./ 5.7
30 18.7 87.3 356./10.2
36 19.7 87.2 7./10.4
42 20.6 86.8 20./ 9.5
48 21.4 86.2 38./ 9.5
54 22.8 84.8 43./19.6
60 23.9 82.7 64./22.1
66 24.8 80.5 67./22.6
72 26.7 77.9 54./30.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

6z GFDL

#182 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:27 am

Local met last night said he didn't think it would even make it to Florida. His thoughts were it staying well to the south.

#183 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:11 am

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA (AL272005) ON 20051119 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051119 1200 051120 0000 051120 1200 051121 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 16.7N 85.9W 18.6N 86.5W 21.5N 86.2W 25.4N 83.9W

BAMM 16.7N 85.9W 17.6N 86.9W 18.9N 87.8W 20.7N 87.8W

A98E 16.7N 85.9W 17.4N 86.3W 18.2N 86.4W 19.6N 85.8W

LBAR 16.7N 85.9W 18.1N 86.2W 20.3N 86.0W 23.2N 84.5W

SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 32KTS 26KTS

DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 32KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051121 1200 051122 1200 051123 1200 051124 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.5N 79.3W 42.5N 66.5W 56.1N 68.9W 63.9N 75.7W

BAMM 23.4N 85.3W 32.2N 71.5W 45.0N 64.3W 56.6N 65.2W

A98E 21.1N 84.2W 24.9N 77.2W 31.7N 65.2W 35.7N 57.4W

LBAR 26.8N 81.3W 33.9N 66.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 85.9W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 85.3W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

For those who always are interested in these here is the 12:00z run of bam models.

mike815 · #184 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 8:31 am

moving nnw now at 6 mph.

#185 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:06 am

Does anyone have a link to the map with all the plotted model paths? -especially the spaghetti one? pretty-please?

mike815 · #186 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:07 am

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm id that what u want?

DESTRUCTION5 · #187 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:08 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Does anyone have a link to the map with all the plotted model paths? -especially the spaghetti one? pretty-please?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_27.gif

#188 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:10 am

thanks!

ok...what is wrong with the Ukmet???

mike815 · #189 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:13 am

LOL i dont know something broke i guess :lol:

#190 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:36 am

Morning visible imagery indicates that Gamma's center is south of the overnight estimates, exposed well south of any convection. Slower and more northward movement would decrease the threat to Florida, as it'll give more time for that strong front to reach Florida ahead of Gamma late Sunday and Monday. Just looking at morning satellite and obs around Gamma, I don't think it's still a tropical storm. But we'll have recon on there later today to check on it.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma6.gif">

mike815 · #191 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:37 am

good point though the plane will tell us more. U could be right.

TS Zack · #192 Postby **TS Zack** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:38 am

Wxman is right. This may never hit Florida. The new advisory just came out and it misses Southern Fl.

mike815 · #193 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:39 am

not entirely.

#194 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:42 am

New track from NHC per 10 AM EST advisorie shows it zipping along as it moves thru the straits.

#195 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:46 am

I put together a model plot of all the dynamic models. Forgot to take out the shallow BAM, though, but it's inline with the dynamic models:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma8a.gif">

mike815 · #196 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:47 am

Im supprised there really in agreement.

#197 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:52 am

mike815 wrote:Im supprised there really in agreement.

Not surprising at all, Gamma is about to merg onto the jet stream superhighway. Steering currents are well-established. It'll also be ripped to shreads before reaching florida, most likely.

mike815 · #198 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:00 am

tru. Forgot about that.

Forecaster Colby · #199 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:28 am

Yeah, looking quite bad this morning...don't think it'll ever stregthen, though it should still be a T.S.

mike815 · #200 Postby **mike815** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:29 am

yup its still a TS just not any stronger very weak.

TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online