Hurricane Katrina

[superfly]

here goes an involved ? for our professionals - if this is an ERC taking place and it doesn't finish by the time it makes landfall in the LA delta (south of NO) could it complete it and re-intensify prior to reaching "mainland" LA. I ask b/c i know the delta is more or less swamp land and we saw Katrina early in her life barely flinch as she crossed the FLA everglades. Another ?, how can the flight winds be that low with a 908mp pressure reading, something just seems off

It will not intensify over land. Intense hurricanes are affected by land a lot more than weak hurricanes.

[jpigott]

there is evidence that Andrew actually intensified as it 1st crossed over land, it would not be unprecedented for Katrina to do the same since the 1st body of "land" it will likely pass is the Louisiana delta, which is nothing more than swamp land

[btangy]

there is evidence that Andrew actually intensified as it 1st crossed over land, it would not be unprecedented for Katrina to do the same since the 1st body of "land" it will likely pass is the Louisiana delta, which is nothing more than swamp land

IF the eyewall is contracting right at landfall, I can see Katrina strenthening slightly. However, once the eyewall is over land, whether dry or swamp, it loses much of its energy source. It might be possible to maintain a strong TS/ Cat 1 over a swamp, but not a major hurricane.

[tallywx]

How a swamp can itensity a storm...Enough friction to tighten up the circulation (e.g. winds have to travel a smaller path in order to maintain momentum), and enough water to keep the circulation fueled.

[djtil]

why would friction tighten up a circulation?

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 21
Latest Recon Position: 94 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 04:40:30Z; 27.7°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -1463 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 126 mph; Radar Altitude: 8583 ft
Ob #02: 04:41:00Z; 27.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -1368 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 8684 ft
Ob #03: 04:41:30Z; 27.6°N 89.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1283 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 8750 ft
Ob #04: 04:42:00Z; 27.6°N 89.8°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1204 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 8839 ft
Ob #05: 04:42:30Z; 27.6°N 89.8°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -1132 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 8917 ft
Ob #06: 04:43:00Z; 27.6°N 89.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1214 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 8819 ft
Ob #07: 04:43:30Z; 27.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -1319 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 8730 ft
Ob #08: 04:44:00Z; 27.6°N 89.7°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -1434 ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 8599 ft
Ob #09: 04:44:30Z; 27.7°N 89.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1555 ft; Wind: WNW (288°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 120 mph; Radar Altitude: 8488 ft
Ob #10: 04:45:00Z; 27.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1686 ft; Wind: WNW (283°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 134 mph; Radar Altitude: 8350 ft
Ob #11: 04:45:30Z; 27.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -1808 ft; Wind: WNW (282°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 8241 ft
Ob #12: 04:46:00Z; 27.7°N 89.5°W; PA: 9925 ft; D-Value: -1946 ft; Wind: W (275°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 8120 ft
Ob #13: 04:46:30Z; 27.7°N 89.5°W; PA: 9934 ft; D-Value: -2047 ft; Wind: W (268°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 8025 ft
Ob #14: 04:47:00Z; 27.8°N 89.5°W; PA: 9803 ft; D-Value: -2149 ft; Wind: WSW (257°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 7792 ft
Ob #15: 04:47:30Z; 27.8°N 89.5°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -2205 ft; Wind: WSW (238°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 65 mph; Radar Altitude: 7828 ft
Ob #16: 04:48:00Z; 27.8°N 89.5°W; PA: 9839 ft; D-Value: -2251 ft; Wind: SW (228°) @ 40 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 50 mph; Radar Altitude: 7723 ft
Ob #17: 04:48:30Z; 27.9°N 89.5°W; PA: 9879 ft; D-Value: -2280 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 29 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 30 mph; Radar Altitude: 7736 ft
Ob #18: 04:49:00Z; 27.9°N 89.5°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -2283 ft; Wind: SSW (203°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 20 mph; Radar Altitude: 7710 ft
Ob #19: 04:49:30Z; 27.9°N 89.5°W; PA: 9869 ft; D-Value: -2280 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 2 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 7 mph; Radar Altitude: 7726 ft
Ob #20: 04:50:00Z; 27.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -2270 ft; Wind: N (8°) @ 7 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 9 mph; Radar Altitude: 7753 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[mtm4319]

Max Wind: 134 mph

That's the NE quadrant too. Wow... cat 4 downgrade seems likely at the 2am advisory.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 22
Latest Recon Position: 117 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 04:50:30Z; 27.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9948 ft; D-Value: -2238 ft; Wind: NNW (347°) @ 17 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 21 mph; Radar Altitude: 7848 ft
Ob #02: 04:51:00Z; 27.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9970 ft; D-Value: -2231 ft; Wind: NNW (328°) @ 31 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 38 mph; Radar Altitude: 7877 ft
Ob #03: 04:51:30Z; 27.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9882 ft; D-Value: -2198 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 58 mph; Radar Altitude: 7822 ft
Ob #04: 04:52:00Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2136 ft; Wind: NW (318°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 7907 ft
Ob #05: 04:52:30Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2051 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 7992 ft
Ob #06: 04:53:00Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1939 ft; Wind: NW (321°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 8104 ft
Ob #07: 04:53:30Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9879 ft; D-Value: -1804 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 132 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 8212 ft
Ob #08: 04:54:00Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9925 ft; D-Value: -1667 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 135 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 139 mph; Radar Altitude: 8396 ft
Ob #09: 04:54:30Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1522 ft; Wind: NW (324°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 8510 ft
Ob #10: 04:55:00Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1394 ft; Wind: NW (324°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 8642 ft
Ob #11: 04:55:30Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -1283 ft; Wind: NW (323°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 8770 ft
Ob #12: 04:56:00Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -1191 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 8835 ft
Ob #13: 04:56:30Z; 27.7°N 89.9°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1109 ft; Wind: NW (321°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 8930 ft
Ob #14: 04:57:00Z; 27.6°N 89.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1033 ft; Wind: NW (320°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9009 ft
Ob #15: 04:57:30Z; 27.6°N 89.9°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -984 ft; Wind: NW (320°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9058 ft
Ob #16: 04:58:00Z; 27.6°N 89.9°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -922 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9114 ft
Ob #17: 04:58:30Z; 27.6°N 90°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -876 ft; Wind: NW (319°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9163 ft
Ob #18: 04:59:00Z; 27.6°N 90°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -827 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9219 ft
Ob #19: 04:59:30Z; 27.5°N 90°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -784 ft; Wind: NW (318°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9262 ft
Ob #20: 05:00:00Z; 27.5°N 90°W; PA: 9869 ft; D-Value: -745 ft; Wind: NW (315°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9265 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[djtil]

That's the NE quadrant too. Wow... cat 4 downgrade seems likely at the 2am advisory

they kept 160.....recon not even in the ballpark of that though...even at flight level.....

still have to respect the pressure though and no real reason to downgrade until the 5am if necessary.

[tallywx]

Structure is off-balance. Double wind maxima in the northern eyewall, but not in the southern eyewall.

[CronkPSU]

geraldo is talking to some guy on the plane, he says they have 145 knot winds??

[mdlemin]

Yeah he said that along with tornados around the north-east quadrant of the eye.

[joe_koehle]

and the hurricane hunter on geraldo said it's back down to 907 mb

[superfly]

Structure is off-balance. Double wind maxima in the northern eyewall, but not in the southern eyewall.

Potentially that's good because it might mean that the secondary eyewall has not completely formed yet so ERC might not complete until after landfall.

[senorpepr]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 10
Time: 0441Z
Latitude: 27.6°N
Longitude: 89.7°W
Location: 112 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 9900 feet
Flight level wind: NW (310°) @ 118 mph
Temperature: 55°F
Dewpoint: 55°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 8600 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[drezee]

That was recorded earlier:

Where in the heck did the data from 1221 - 1240AM EDT??

Between ob 20 and 21

The NHC didn't even send it. That was the most important data!! In the NE quad...

[Windy]

Yeah he said that along with tornados around the north-east quadrant of the eye.

That was a replay. That was from the first pass into the NW quad.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 23
Latest Recon Position: 146 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 05:00:30Z; 27.5°N 90°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -719 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 9272 ft
Ob #02: 05:01:00Z; 27.5°N 90.1°W; PA: 9869 ft; D-Value: -686 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 88 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9324 ft
Ob #03: 05:01:30Z; 27.4°N 90.1°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -646 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9347 ft
Ob #04: 05:02:00Z; 27.4°N 90.1°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -600 ft; Wind: NW (322°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9400 ft
Ob #05: 05:02:30Z; 27.4°N 90.1°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -551 ft; Wind: NW (317°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 9439 ft
Ob #06: 05:03:00Z; 27.4°N 90.1°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -518 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9482 ft
Ob #07: 05:03:30Z; 27.4°N 90.2°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -489 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9505 ft
Ob #08: 05:04:00Z; 27.3°N 90.2°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -456 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 86 mph; Radar Altitude: 9541 ft
Ob #09: 05:04:30Z; 27.3°N 90.2°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -430 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 9570 ft
Ob #10: 05:05:00Z; 27.3°N 90.2°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -407 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 9593 ft
Ob #11: 05:05:30Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -384 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 79 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 9610 ft
Ob #12: 05:06:00Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -364 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9633 ft
Ob #13: 05:06:30Z; 27.2°N 90.3°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -338 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 9662 ft
Ob #14: 05:07:00Z; 27.2°N 90.3°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -322 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9669 ft
Ob #15: 05:07:30Z; 27.2°N 90.3°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -295 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9708 ft
Ob #16: 05:08:00Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -276 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9721 ft
Ob #17: 05:08:30Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -262 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9744 ft
Ob #18: 05:09:00Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 82 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #19: 05:09:30Z; 27.1°N 90.4°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -223 ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 81 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9774 ft
Ob #20: 05:10:00Z; 27.1°N 90.4°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -207 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9790 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[drezee]

Pressure is 910 now

[mdlemin]

Yeah he said that along with tornados around the north-east quadrant of the eye.

That was a replay. That was from the first pass into the NW quad.

Sorry. I just have a bad feeling.