Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Bocadude85]

Im still not sold on this thing stalling over the yucatan, and I think it may just barely clip the NE side if not just give it a glancing blow, just my opinion though

[cjrciadt]

Thought some folks might appreciate this link for Cancun radar:

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

That eye!!!!1

[artist]

I just heard the news conference and yes it could become a strong cat 1 or cat 2 and but did not want people to think it wasn't going to be a strong storm.

[jkt21787]

Looks NNW now. Definitely making the turn. Cozumel might escape the worst. Doesnt look at all like its burying itself in the Yucatan.

Um, no...

1843z 18.73N, 85.58W
2116z 18.78N, 85.7W

You have already told him that

[n o o d l z]

OK, the models can just go away as far as I'm concerned...I know they normally help, but the things these models have been spitting out for Wilma have potentially made things worse. Look at the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Flip between the last frame, and the first frame...this storm is moving straight NNW, no wobble involved. Even if it continued going straight, it would probably only brush the Yucatan...this is amazing considering last night I thought there was no way this would miss the Yucatan...now I'm thinking otherwise. I think the NHC should just stick with its own path for this storm for now...

[stormy1959]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the trough and steering winds, I think this thing is getting ready to turn and speed up. Maybe 12 to 18 hours .

[vacanechaser]

The disscusion says that the likelihood of interaction with Mexico is more likely, how can that be when the N-NNW turn they have been expecting has occured?

Wilma is not movin NNWEST. In the discussion she is moving to the NW. The discussion also says there will be a bend back to the west due to high pressure building back in which should keep Wilma over land and weaken her bigtime. Wilma looks to be now a cat 2 or 1 at landfall. That is great news for Florida. Its alot better news knowing Florida will not be getting a major hurricane most likeley now. The Yucatan will get one of the hardest hits ever maybe so all our thoughts should be with them now. This is a Yucatan storm. I can only imagine what the damage will be if she stalls at winds 150 to 160mph. That would be a nightmare for sure not to mention deadley flooding as well up to 40 inches in places the NHC says. I think when she gets to Florida Naples will be the hardest hit area in the state of Florida if this track verifies.

The discussion says no such thing about a bend back west other than the models suggest it possibly... It does not say that will happen for sure... And of course, you can not base Florida not getting a major hurricane on one forecast... This will change many more times before landfall... I just love how people read things into something like this and take it as true or written in stone.. No one should let down their guard due to this forecast..

And frankly, this forecaster always seems to down play the possiblity of strengthening in a lot of cases.. It is one forecast and one forecasters view..


Jesse v. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Canelaw99]

OK, I need help because I would like to post the 3 day track as of 11am this morning so I can compare it to the current one. I have the 11am one saved on my computer, but do not know where to save it so I can uplink it.

Th point I would like to make is that the NHC 3 day point has shifted a smidge south.

[Damar91]

Noodlz, I saw the exact same thing, in fact the last 2 frames look almost due north.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16wv.html
Great view for Wilma and the Front, use it for the next few days.

[conestogo_flood]

The forecast track keeps pushing back, now it's late Sunday. Does anyone expect the hurricane to speed up and hit earlier than it says? Or are we facing a possible Monday landfall?

[Damar91]

Stormy, hopefully it won't speed up too much, Florida won't have much time if it does.

[CHRISTY]

it almost looks like its moving north......iam not buying on this thing stalling over the gulf?question how we know this thing is not to going to be a cat 3 before landfall in florida??? opinions.

[Brent]

Does anyone know the status of that trough, is it as big as they thought?

The first one(now over the Ohio Valley) did not pick it up. The reason for the slower track is because it'll have to wait for the new trough over the Pacific NW to pick it up(and yes, it's massive).

[Damar91]

Are the indications that it will make it this far south?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought last night that the eye would of cleared by now. Some weird freaking things are going on.

[Bgator]

it almost looks like its moving north......iam not buying on this thing stalling over the gulf?question how we know this thing is not to going to be a cat 3 before landfall in florida??? opinions.

We dont im not buying it staying there that long, a cat 3 to me is very possible IMHO!

[n o o d l z]

The forecast track keeps pushing back, now it's late Sunday. Does anyone expect the hurricane to speed up and hit earlier than it says? Or are we facing a possible Monday landfall?

Thats what I'm afraid of, I think this hurricane is going to follow the forecast tracks from yesterday...I think this will be a Sat/Sun landfall, although I still don't think it'll be much stronger than a Category 2, maybe 3.

[Damar91]

Not that I'm a pro or anything, but with the last few hours of movements, I get a gut feeling that this time tomorrow, things for Florida may look entirely different. Hopefully for Mexico it will.

[vbhoutex]

The latest plot I have made, based on NHC information shows a definite NW to NNW turn. However, whether we like it or not, we must take the models into account here also as the information fed to them is far more detailed than anything available to us. If the high is indeed strengthening, then a turm back to the WNW or NW is likely and an extended time over the Yucatan is probable. This will be horrible news for the folks down there, but potentially very good news for those in FL who are expecting the second landfall from Wilma.