Hurricane Katrina

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 12
Time: 0500Z
Latitude: 27.8°N
Longitude: 89.5°W
Location: 102 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 910 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 26.2°F; W (270°) @ 15 mph
850mb height: 1972 ft; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 23°F; W (280°) @ 15 mph
EYE SPL 2783N08951W 0438 MBL WND 27513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 27
012 909725 WL150 27513 083 =

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 24
Latest Recon Position: 124 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 05:10:30Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -190 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9813 ft
Ob #02: 05:11:00Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -174 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 76 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 9823 ft
Ob #03: 05:11:30Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -164 ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 76 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 9826 ft
Ob #04: 05:12:00Z; 27°N 90.5°W; PA: 9846 ft; D-Value: -141 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9849 ft
Ob #05: 05:12:30Z; 27°N 90.5°W; PA: 9875 ft; D-Value: -115 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 75 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 76 mph; Radar Altitude: 9902 ft
Ob #06: 05:13:00Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9865 ft; D-Value: -151 ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 76 mph; Radar Altitude: 9856 ft
Ob #07: 05:13:30Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -177 ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 74 mph; Radar Altitude: 9816 ft
Ob #08: 05:14:00Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -190 ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 9806 ft
Ob #09: 05:14:30Z; 27.1°N 90.5°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -213 ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 82 mph; Radar Altitude: 9787 ft
Ob #10: 05:15:00Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -226 ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 75 mph; Radar Altitude: 9764 ft
Ob #11: 05:15:30Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9865 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 76 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 9767 ft
Ob #12: 05:16:00Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -253 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9741 ft
Ob #13: 05:16:30Z; 27.2°N 90.4°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -276 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 79 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 9718 ft
Ob #14: 05:17:00Z; 27.2°N 90.3°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -295 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9708 ft
Ob #15: 05:17:30Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9846 ft; D-Value: -315 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 9672 ft
Ob #16: 05:18:00Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9865 ft; D-Value: -335 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 77 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 9672 ft
Ob #17: 05:18:30Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -358 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 79 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 81 mph; Radar Altitude: 9639 ft
Ob #18: 05:19:00Z; 27.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -381 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9610 ft
Ob #19: 05:19:30Z; 27.4°N 90.2°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -410 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 9587 ft
Ob #20: 05:20:00Z; 27.4°N 90.2°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -436 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 9560 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[mtm4319]

South edge of the northern eyewall now showing up on MSY short-range radar:

[storms in NC]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
MIDNIGHT CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR
FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 98 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING KATRINA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...27.9 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 11
Time: 04:49:20Z
Latitude: 27.9°N
Longitude: 89.5°W
Location: 97 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2314 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: WNW (283°) @ 134 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 16 mi SSW (195°)
Sea level pressure: 910 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 9902 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 70°F at 9865 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 59°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 32 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 134 KT SE QUAD 0249Z

[THead]

CNN was just reading off some buoy wave height measurements, didn't get the exact location but she said there was 60 foot waves being recorded near the eye-wall.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 25
Latest Recon Position: 98 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 05:20:30Z; 27.4°N 90.2°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -469 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 9534 ft
Ob #02: 05:21:00Z; 27.4°N 90.2°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -502 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9491 ft
Ob #03: 05:21:30Z; 27.4°N 90.1°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -538 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9465 ft
Ob #04: 05:22:00Z; 27.5°N 90.1°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -571 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9423 ft
Ob #05: 05:22:30Z; 27.5°N 90.1°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -614 ft; Wind: NW (311°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 9386 ft
Ob #06: 05:23:00Z; 27.5°N 90.1°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -653 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 81 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9341 ft
Ob #07: 05:23:30Z; 27.5°N 90.1°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -692 ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 9304 ft
Ob #08: 05:24:00Z; 27.5°N 90°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -725 ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 9268 ft
Ob #09: 05:24:30Z; 27.6°N 90°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -764 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9232 ft
Ob #10: 05:25:00Z; 27.6°N 90°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -807 ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 9186 ft
Ob #11: 05:25:30Z; 27.6°N 90°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -843 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 88 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9144 ft
Ob #12: 05:26:00Z; 27.6°N 89.9°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -883 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9114 ft
Ob #13: 05:26:30Z; 27.7°N 89.9°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -938 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9065 ft
Ob #14: 05:27:00Z; 27.7°N 89.9°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -991 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9006 ft
Ob #15: 05:27:30Z; 27.7°N 89.9°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -1050 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 8944 ft
Ob #16: 05:28:00Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -1112 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 8888 ft
Ob #17: 05:28:30Z; 27.7°N 89.8°W; PA: 9862 ft; D-Value: -1188 ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 8812 ft
Ob #18: 05:29:00Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9852 ft; D-Value: -1276 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 8717 ft
Ob #19: 05:29:30Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9856 ft; D-Value: -1368 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 124 mph; Radar Altitude: 8629 ft
Ob #20: 05:30:00Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9849 ft; D-Value: -1463 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 8524 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[superfly]

Double wind maxima starting to show up in SW quad as well.

[mtm4319]

This is happening at just the right time. I don't want to jinx it, but the right things seem to be happening for New Orleans not have its city flooded: increase in pressure, decrease in winds, EWRC just before landfall, and it appears to be moving due north on radar.

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 13
Time: 0400Z
Latitude: 28°N
Longitude: 89.3°W
Location: 95 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 928 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 25.7°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 85 ft; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 25.4°F; E (90°) @ 135 mph
850mb height: 2526 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 21.8°F; ESE (120°) @ 167 mph
700mb height: 11299 ft; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SE (140°) @ 157 mph
MXWNDBND SPL 2809N08940W 0428 LST WND 016 MBL WND 10641 AEV
20507 DLM WND 12643 926716 WL150 09116 091 =

[mtm4319]

Motion now about 355.

[Derek Ortt]

dropsonde reading still show 150ish winds

[baitism]

Im not seeing the ERC. Eye is still very symmetrical. Dry air, yes. But ERC, I dont think so right now.

[Wthrman13]

Nope, it's an ERC. In fact, there are actually 3 concentric eyewalls on radar now. Just because there is an ERC in progress doesn't mean that the inner eye cannot remain symmetrical. There is still much that is not understood about them. They also take a long time to complete: over 12 hours. However, a slow weakening seems to be still in order, not that it's going to matter a great deal in the grand scheme of things.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 26
Latest Recon Position: 80 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 05:43:00Z; **** ****; PA: ****; D-Value: ****; Wind: N (****°) @ **** mph; Temp: ****; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: **** mph; Radar Altitude: **** ft
Ob #02: 05:43:30Z; 28°N 89.5°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2159 ft; Wind: WSW (258°) @ 47 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 48 mph; Radar Altitude: 7877 ft
Ob #03: 05:44:00Z; 28°N 89.6°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -2156 ft; Wind: W (271°) @ 50 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 51 mph; Radar Altitude: 7897 ft
Ob #04: 05:44:30Z; 28°N 89.6°W; PA: 9970 ft; D-Value: -2136 ft; Wind: WNW (285°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 52 mph; Radar Altitude: 7969 ft
Ob #05: 05:45:00Z; 28°N 89.6°W; PA: 9859 ft; D-Value: -2129 ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 56 mph; Radar Altitude: 7867 ft
Ob #06: 05:45:30Z; 28°N 89.7°W; PA: 9921 ft; D-Value: -2103 ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 68 mph; Radar Altitude: 7959 ft
Ob #07: 05:46:00Z; 28°N 89.7°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -2073 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 74 mph; Radar Altitude: 7953 ft
Ob #08: 05:46:30Z; 28°N 89.7°W; PA: 9925 ft; D-Value: -2034 ft; Wind: NW (316°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 73 mph; Radar Altitude: 8028 ft
Ob #09: 05:47:00Z; 28°N 89.7°W; PA: 9882 ft; D-Value: -2103 ft; Wind: NW (318°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 60 mph; Radar Altitude: 7920 ft
Ob #10: 05:47:30Z; 28°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -2172 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 51 mph; Radar Altitude: 7874 ft
Ob #11: 05:48:00Z; 28°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2208 ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 28 mph; Radar Altitude: 7828 ft
Ob #12: 05:48:30Z; 28.1°N 89.6°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2221 ft; Wind: W (270°) @ 12 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 14 mph; Radar Altitude: 7818 ft
Ob #13: 05:49:00Z; 28.1°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2221 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 12 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 15 mph; Radar Altitude: 7815 ft
Ob #14: 05:49:30Z; 28.1°N 89.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2224 ft; Wind: S (174°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 15 mph; Radar Altitude: 7805 ft
Ob #15: 05:50:00Z; 28.1°N 89.5°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2224 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 69°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 22 mph; Radar Altitude: 7815 ft
Ob #16: 05:50:30Z; 28.1°N 89.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2215 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 36 mph; Radar Altitude: 7822 ft
Ob #17: 05:51:00Z; 28.2°N 89.5°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -2198 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 47 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 53 mph; Radar Altitude: 7835 ft
Ob #18: 05:51:30Z; 28.2°N 89.5°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2162 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 71 mph; Radar Altitude: 7874 ft
Ob #19: 05:52:00Z; 28.2°N 89.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2100 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 7940 ft
Ob #20: 05:52:30Z; 28.2°N 89.4°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2034 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 7992 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[vbhoutex]

WTNT52 KNHC 290551
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND NOAA/NWS LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

A WIND GUST TO 101 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SOUTHWEST PASS
LOUISIANA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[mtm4319]

...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST.

Probably more like 89.55.

[djtil]

not that it's going to matter a great deal in the grand scheme of things.

i think the difference between her making landfall before this reorg and during is monumental. 140 vs 175 probably the difference between extreme and incomprehensible....jmo.

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 15
Time: 0600Z
Latitude: 28.1°N
Longitude: 89.6°W
Location: 81 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Surface: 910 mb; Temp: 82°F; Dewpt: 26.2°F; N (10°) @ 7 mph
850mb height: 2005 ft; Temp: 77°F; Dewpt: 24°F; NE (50°) @ 8 mph
700mb height: 10843 ft; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 15.2°F; SE (140°) @ 13 mph
EYE SPL 2805N08957W 0538 MBL WND 03506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 06
006 910712 WL150 01506 075 =

[Wthrman13]

not that it's going to matter a great deal in the grand scheme of things.

i think the difference between her making landfall before this reorg and during is monumental. 140 vs 175 probably the difference between extreme and incomprehensible....jmo.

The winds will certainly be less of a problem, but the surge is likely to be still in the Cat 5 range, which is what causes the most damage and death anyway.