Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Thunder44 · #21 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:44 am

Where are the people that said after Ophelia that there was going to be a lull? Or that the Cape Verde season is over? :lol:

#22 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:45 am

Well, regardless of what these models are showing, the center of circulation is moving W/SW the last hour. As far as I'm concerned, that negates the 7:30am GFDL and the 1:30am UKMET (which is still on drugs, looks like). BAMS aren't showing right now, which leaves us LBAR and NHCL98. Not a lot of confidence at this point. Sure hate to be NHC today, those guys have a whopping big forecast problem on their hands for 11am. Thank goodness will have plane in there shortly after.

Oh, almost forgot, buoy 41040 at 14.5N 53W 8:50am reporting SE winds 21.4kts gusting to 27.2, waves 7.9ft.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #23 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:46 am

skufful wrote:What exactly is the XTRAP? Is it the current direction, or is it an "XTRAP"olation of all the models?

XTRAP is the current motion extrapolated out over time. No model guidance is injested into it.

#24 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:Where are the people that said after Ophelia that there was going to be a lull? Or that the Cape Verde season is over?

OK, so I was wrong. Big deal. I'm no meteorologist, and I thought Ophelia would be gone by now, but she stalled at the bar and the mall longer than I thought she would. In any event, I could see Philippe forming today, and if 96L keeps getting its act together, Rita could form in the next few days as well.

-Andrew92

#25 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:Where are the people that said after Ophelia that there was going to be a lull? Or that the Cape Verde season is over?

They said there was a lull during Ophelia...which made no sense with a hurricane off the East Coast... :lol:

#26 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:50 am

Hey guys, we are discussing one system here. Let's not digress into an "I told you so" thread, OK? :wink:

#27 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:51 am

#28 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:52 am

Check out the intensification on the Dvorak floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#29 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:56 am

i didn't know it was like that...

Website · #30 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:00 am

[quote="southfloridawx2005"][/quote]

Wrong storm. :wink:

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:01 am

Hyperstorm · #32 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:02 am

At this hour, the LLC appears to be located near 13N 54.4W.

Here's the image depicting where the LLC is located:

As you can see it is on the extreme northern edge of the convection. This is due to light northerly flow on top of the cyclone. This only means that we shouldn't see any rapid deepening today.

Regarding some that are saying that it has good chance of moving directly west into the Caribbean. That is not correct. The pattern currently over the Western Atlantic does NOT favor a westward move with the troughiness north of Puerto Rico. If anything, a NW track passing over or just to the east of the NE islands seems a good bet at this time.

#33 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:06 am

Brent wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:

Wrong storm.

not the wrong storm.... wrong name.... still 6Z models.

Scorpion · #34 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:09 am

Yeehaw finally

. Time to awake the sleeping giant and answer the EPAC.

#35 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:16 am

Hyperstorm, as to my post, I'm not saying where it will go. Only saying that the models showing such a sharp turn to the north are not realistic, seeing that it would have to happen very soon (like, now) to follow those particular tracks. (I see some have now updated and don't show a turn at 54.5W or at 52W)

And more importantly, it's way to soon to rule out this thing becoming a hurricane in 24-36hrs and impacting some EC islands. Those of us who live here have seen people caught "with their pants down" many times before when storm failed to live up to it's model forecasts.

I respect your opinion a lot, and will look forward to more of your thoughts on this. Might I ask a favor? If you state decidedly that this storm just undoubtedly will turn north, I believe you should also post the disclaimer. You never know who's reading and what their circumstances may be.

Hyperstorm · #36 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:26 am

bvigal...

Please excuse my comment. It wasn't meant toward anyone in particular. It just stated what the pattern is favoring at this time, which is a NW track. I never mentioned NORTH away from the islands. If the scenario plays out this could be a major threat toward the NE islands. There is always the chance of something not following the pattern, but that chance is very small at this time.

Regarding the disclaimer...I read that it is used for people who post a forecast and makes it sound like it is official with predicted strength and location (with Lat/Long).

JamesFromMaine2 · #37 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:31 am

Climotogly as pointed out by the NHC can pretty much be thrown out the window for this year nothing has been going the way it should so pretty much it could do whatever it wanted to do! lol

Shoshana · #38 Postby **Shoshana** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:37 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Brent wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:

Wrong storm.

not the wrong storm.... wrong name.... still 6Z models.

Isn't that the storm off Puerto Rico tho, not off the Leeward Islands? If so, it's the wrong storm ...

WindRunner · #39 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:38 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Brent wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:

Wrong storm.

not the wrong storm.... wrong name.... still 6Z models.

Yes it is, this is the TD17 thread and that picture is of 96L.

Website · #40 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:41 am

The NHC seems very uncertain... their 11am track takes it a good ways east of the islands, but they are saying watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight.

Hurricane Philippe,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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