Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS has been the single most useless piece of horse manure these past 2 hurricane seasons. The solutions provided by that model do NOT match what is expected from the simple momentum equations

that said, do NOT be quick to discount a landfall. This is almost certain to hit the Yucatan. Maybe not stall as long as it says though

[CHRISTY]

[HDGator]

GFS is still on crack.

Haven't looked at the output, but the GFS is running normal with all of the data, nothing bad according to NCEP. This will be a very credible run as far as I'm concerned.

It takes it straight west into the Yucatan. Clearly that will not happen.

Whats make it so clear? Nothing is 100%. Isidore was drawn into the Yucatan, Mitch even got drawn into Central America when forecasted to move north. It could happen. Don't discredit it so fast.

I believe the NHC has finally begun to question this model solution with the latest discussion:

HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO
PASS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

[LAwxrgal]

the GFS has been the single most useless piece of horse manure these past 2 hurricane seasons. The solutions provided by that model do NOT match what is expected from the simple momentum equations

that said, do NOT be quick to discount a landfall. This is almost certain to hit the Yucatan. Maybe not stall as long as it says though

Derek: didn't you say yesterday that the GFS isn't good with NOAA jet data?

[deltadog03]

western quad is making a come back if you will...looking much better

[DESTRUCTION5]

the GFS has been the single most useless piece of horse manure these past 2 hurricane seasons. The solutions provided by that model do NOT match what is expected from the simple momentum equations

that said, do NOT be quick to discount a landfall. This is almost certain to hit the Yucatan. Maybe not stall as long as it says though

I think they need to stop feeding it NOAA Info...Its only worse

[CronkPSU]

the GFS has been the single most useless piece of horse manure these past 2 hurricane seasons. The solutions provided by that model do NOT match what is expected from the simple momentum equations

that said, do NOT be quick to discount a landfall. This is almost certain to hit the Yucatan. Maybe not stall as long as it says though

Derek: didn't you say yesterday that the GFS isn't good with NOAA jet data?

LOL I think he is saying it isn't good with anything

[CHRISTY]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

[Stratosphere747]

Let me add I do think its wrong though

LMAO..No doubt..

...and this is supposed to be the credible GFS we've been waiting on?

Yes...It has the the full data from the NOAA flight...

And this is why in the back of my mind I don't want to 100% discredit it.

Although I agree with Dereks assement of the GFS somewhat. The stall scenario does not seems as plausible, but landfall at Cozumel and possibly Cancun is VERY plausible and the latest motion is showing this IMO to be the likely track.

[LAwxrgal]

the GFS has been the single most useless piece of horse manure these past 2 hurricane seasons. The solutions provided by that model do NOT match what is expected from the simple momentum equations

that said, do NOT be quick to discount a landfall. This is almost certain to hit the Yucatan. Maybe not stall as long as it says though

Derek: didn't you say yesterday that the GFS isn't good with NOAA jet data?

LOL I think he is saying it isn't good with anything

I think he means it's good for something that rhymes with hit.

[Derek Ortt]

its because NCEP is still assimilating inner-core sondes into the model.

This is why I established the nwhhc policy of a not permitting a forecast to be based upon the GFS. Basically, we do not consider its solution

[scogor]

Counting on all of you to hold down the fort while I get a few hours of sleep before waking up more than an hour earlier than I have to in order to check the 5 am advisory and discussion. Wilma has given me a major headache all week...looks like tomorrow is a "batten down the hatches" day at our law office in preparation for...well, some category that will hit somewhere in Florida sometime soon...

Jeez, I feel like I am stuck in the movie "Groundhog Day!!"

[skysummit]

Counting on all of you to hold down the fort while I get a few hours of sleep before waking up more than an hour earlier than I have to in order to check the 5 am advisory and discussion. Wilma has given me a major headache all week...looks like tomorrow is a "batten down the hatches" day at our law office in preparation for...well, some category that will hit somewhere in Florida sometime soon...

Jeez, I feel like I am stuck in the movie "Groundhog Day!!"

Wake up to check the 5am????? Just stay here with us! LOL

[StormFury]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

barely! or a slight brush. Wilma is definitely moving and does not show a hint of stalling. By tommorow morining, she will be at the same latitude as Cancun but about 10-30 miles offshore.

http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

[boca]

I've been averaging 3 to 4 hours of sleep for the last 3 nights. I can't take much more of this.

[CHRISTY]

tonight will be important for southflorida.....

[CronkPSU]

I've been averaging 3 to 4 hours of sleep for the last 3 nights. I can't take much more of this.

looks like we have at least 3 more nights of this

[StormFury]

I've been averaging 3 to 4 hours of sleep for the last 3 nights. I can't take much more of this.

looks like we have at least 3 more nights of this

at least you don't have to go to school or do useless hw

[skysummit]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

It's going to have to take a few jogs due north to do that. It's going to be really close.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ive been tracking wilma all week 6-7 hrs sleep/night.