160
WTNT41 KNHC 262032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C TO -80-C...HAS
REDEVELOPED EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE STILL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. GIVEN THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS HAD A RECON HISTORY OF STRONGER
THAN AVERAGE WINDS AT HIGHER LEVELS...I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FRANKLIN
AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
AN 18Z REPORT OF 31 KT FROM SHIP PIBO LOCATED ABOUT 220 NMI
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR ABOUT 70 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND BY A TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 35 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED NORTHWEST-NORTHEAST.
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN A RATHER WOBBLY 020/04.
FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY COMPLETING A 30 NMI WIDE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
LOOP...BUT THE NET OVERALL MOTION HAS BEEN NORTHEASTWARD. FRANKLIN
MAY WOBBLE LIKE A CHILD'S TOP TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH HAS BEEN IMPEDING ANY
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION...AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
18-24 HOURS...SO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THAT TIME. BY 30-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 60 HOURS...FRANKLIN WILL ALSO BE
MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING
UNLESS THE CYCLONE GETS ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FIRST. THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
THE 12 FT SEA HEIGHT RADIUS WAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
BASED ON THE 19-FT SEA HEIGHT REPORT FROM SHIP PIBO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 32.3N 68.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 33.4N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 34.6N 67.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.2N 67.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 37.9N 66.2W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 29/1800Z 40.5N 62.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
Franklin Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Hurricaneman
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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gkrangers
Yep, it was a great observation. You need to be a regular Einstein to compare a tropical cyclone to a top. Nobody would make that connection.Pebbles wrote:FRANKLIN
MAY WOBBLE LIKE A CHILD'S TOP
Wonder if they read these boards over at the NHC sometimes.. wasn't there a mention of comparing tropics storms to a toy top within the past couple days??? OH wait that's right... that was me! LOL *winks*
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mike18xx
Franklin's LLC may be covered by a new CDO come Wednesday morning; I've posted an UNOFFICIAL forecast here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68936&start=252
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mike18xx
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C TO -80-C...HAS REDEVELOPED EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE STILL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER....
<snip>
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 18-24 HOURS...
From my gleaning of imagery, Franklin is currently in a pocket of very light shear -- which would account for the -80C tops blowing up very near the center in the first place.
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cycloneye
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005
...FRANKLIN NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN WEST OF BERMUDA...EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...32.3 N... 68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005
...FRANKLIN NEARLY STATIONARY AGAIN WEST OF BERMUDA...EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...32.3 N... 68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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gkrangers
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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cycloneye
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685
WTNT31 KNHC 270232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005
...FRANKLIN CONTINUES DRIFTING ERRATICALLY WEST OF BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 270232
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005
...FRANKLIN CONTINUES DRIFTING ERRATICALLY WEST OF BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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WTNT41 KNHC 270233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS OF -70C TO -75C PERSISTS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA...WHILE
A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40 KT VECTORS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION HAS COVERED THE CENTER...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE 24 HR MOTION IS 005/4.
HOWEVER...THIS PACKAGE WILL USE A 315/2 DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF FRANKLIN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
EASTWARD...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF BERMUDA AS THEY FALL OVER
THE EASTERN U. S. EAST OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THESE CHANGES SHOULD COME ABOUT IN
12-24 HR...AND THAT FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE.
THE CYCLONE THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR
AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE REST OF ITS LIFE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW
TRACK IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUDIANCE...AND
SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE
GUIDANCE BEING TOO FAST. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
WEST OF NORTH MOTION IN THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT DECREASE IN SHEAR IS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS NEAR FRANKLIN...A PATTERN THAT OVERALL IS
NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF FRANKLIN IN ABOUT 12-24
HR... WHICH WOULD OPEN ABOUT A 24 HR WINDOW FOR THE STORM TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT...WHICH IS ABOUT
THE MOST THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 32.4N 68.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 33.1N 68.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.4N 68.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 67.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 66.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005
A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS OF -70C TO -75C PERSISTS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA...WHILE
A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40 KT VECTORS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION HAS COVERED THE CENTER...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE 24 HR MOTION IS 005/4.
HOWEVER...THIS PACKAGE WILL USE A 315/2 DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF FRANKLIN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
EASTWARD...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF BERMUDA AS THEY FALL OVER
THE EASTERN U. S. EAST OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THESE CHANGES SHOULD COME ABOUT IN
12-24 HR...AND THAT FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE.
THE CYCLONE THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR
AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE REST OF ITS LIFE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW
TRACK IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUDIANCE...AND
SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE
GUIDANCE BEING TOO FAST. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
WEST OF NORTH MOTION IN THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT DECREASE IN SHEAR IS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS NEAR FRANKLIN...A PATTERN THAT OVERALL IS
NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF FRANKLIN IN ABOUT 12-24
HR... WHICH WOULD OPEN ABOUT A 24 HR WINDOW FOR THE STORM TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT...WHICH IS ABOUT
THE MOST THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0300Z 32.4N 68.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 33.1N 68.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.4N 68.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 67.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 66.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Hurricaneman
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