Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[wxwatcher2]

Good Morning all.

I just got out my pencil and tracking chart. Where should I put the little dot on my chart? Right over Cazumel?

[Brent]

Good Morning all.

I just got out my pencil and tracking chart. Where should I put the little dot on my chart? Right over Cazumel?

Just to the southeast. The calm is still offshore(the eyewall is over them).

[jpigott]

if you look at the last few visible satellite frames on the ramsdis website it appears as if the eye is contracting

[JPmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5102100!!/

00Z Euro still shows a FL Hurricane...although further south than the past couple of days....it's been saying this for 4-5 days.

[Seele]

IMO, she is steadily weaking. On radar the eyewall looks very ragged, the latest recon shows duel wind maxima again, and a recent microwave image appears to show a strong outer eyewall with a weakening inner eye. This can be see on radar also as the thin ring of yellow and oranges around the eye. Cozumel is being hammered by this outer ring now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/24L.WILMA/ssmi/85h/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html

[SouthFloridawx]

if you look at the last few visible satellite frames on the ramsdis website it appears as if the eye is contracting

I noticed that on the zoomed visible loop.

[Derek Ortt]

it sure does not look be be weakening, but may weaken soon due to the EWRC

then again, due to the large size of the present eye, this may be more like Jeannes

[6SpeedTA95]

if you look at the last few visible satellite frames on the ramsdis website it appears as if the eye is contracting

I noticed that on the zoomed visible loop.

I dunno I've pulled four different loops now and I dont find anything that immediately looks as if its contracting. Looks like its moving to the north just a bit in the last two frames so maybe thats creating a bit of an illusion in the eyewall? You gotta link for what you're seeing?

[jpigott]

Derek - what's your gut telling you? Is this thing going to come far enough inland on the Yucatan for a long enough period of time to tear it apart before it starts heading our way here in SFLA

[Crankin]

Is it going to go wnw and get picked apart by the Yucatan? Maybe still a stall?

[skysummit]

if you look at the last few visible satellite frames on the ramsdis website it appears as if the eye is contracting

I noticed that on the zoomed visible loop.

I dunno I've pulled four different loops now and I dont find anything that immediately looks as if its contracting. Looks like its moving to the north just a bit in the last two frames so maybe thats creating a bit of an illusion in the eyewall? You gotta link for what you're seeing?

Where are you getting your sat links from? GHCC Conus-East is doing 5 minute updates right now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[jpigott]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.html - click on tropics

[AZS]

First news from Mexico

Tourists have been ordered inland or into shelters, with five cities on the Caribbean coast declaring emergencies as the category four hurricane nears.

Travel agents said there were thousands of Britons holidaying in the area.

About 1,000 tourists including some 80 Britons are in a sports hall in Cancun. Rachel Farricker, 39, said "a massive amount" of water was pouring in.

"It's a bit like having a timpani band on the roof," she said.

The US National Hurricane Centre said the storm could dump 10-20in (25-50cm) of rain on the Yucatan peninsula.



Map of hurricane path


The Association of British Travel Agents (Abta) said there were about 8,500 Britons in the Yucatan peninsula.

"Customers, who were travelling to Mexico today (Friday) and over the weekend with FTO members, have been or will be offered alternative holiday destinations," it said in a statement.

HAVE YOUR SAY
The heavy steel shutters are secured and generators are in place

Patrick Sheehy, Homestead, Florida


Send us your experiences
Wilma: Readers' updates

"Other programmes to Cuba and Florida are currently operating normally."

The Foreign Office is advising British travellers in Mexico to contact their travel operators or hotel about their contingency plans and to follow the advice of local authorities.

It says travel and communication is likely to be "severely affected" over the next few days.

Cancun is built along a narrow spit of white sand that could also be vulnerable to the predicted 10ft (3m) storm surge of sea water.

'Dull roar'

Mrs Farricker and her husband Carl, 36, - from Altham in Lancashire - were due to leave Mexico on Thursday, but were evacuated after their flight was cancelled.

"The winds started to pick up during the week, but before that the weather was terrific," she said.

"On Wednesday morning the hotel staff started removing the sun loungers from outside the hotel, putting them away inside, and I thought: 'That's not a good sign.'

"The next day we woke up in the morning and there were notices everywhere saying Wilma was coming and everyone was told to bring a blanket, pillow and their hand luggage and get on the coach."


There were some local lads selling 'I survived Hurricane Wilma' T-shirts when we got here

Rachel Farricker
British tourist


Wilma closes in

Mrs Farricker described the sound of the storm's arrival as a "dull roar".

"The sky became greyer and greyer. It wasn't raining at all at first, then it began to spit. You could hear the wind pick up and then the noise really started."

Mrs Farricker said people were "remarkably calm" but it was noisy inside the sports hall.

"There's loud crashing and bangs going on. We're hoping it's something hitting the building, and not pulling the roof apart," she said.

Those sheltering had been told they could be in the hall for a couple of days, Mrs Farricker said.

But she said there was an emergency generator powering the hall and they had been assured there was enough food and water.

"There were some local lads selling 'I survived Hurricane Wilma' T-shirts when we got here," Mrs Farricker added.

"I think that's pushing it a bit. Assuming I'm still here I might buy one afterwards."

Playa del Carmen

Meanwhile, in Playa del Carmen - some 100 miles down the coast from Cancun - Londoner Raj Madha said the streets were flooded.

"Clearly it's very windy, the streets are about a foot deep in water," he told BBC Radio Five Live.

"On the up side, everything here is concrete so, we're not expecting a huge amount of damage.

"All the electricity has been cut, we're expecting running water to run out fairly soon, we've got about five days supply of water just in case and maybe three days supply of food."

[Mattie]

This is so amazing - "where she goes, nobody knows" . . . (at this moment anyway) I can't believe the uncertainty with this old stone-age Gal -

"Wilma is currently moving toward the north-northwest at 5 knots.
Because steering currents are forecast to be weak...track models
move Wilma slowly and in all directions during 24 to 36 hour
period...making this portion of the forecast highly uncertain."

[caneman]

Interesting tidbit. Wilma is at the 12 hour plots from the 5:00 AM advisory already in just 6 hours later and was suppose to take 12 hours or 5:00 tonight to be there.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z FRI OCT 21 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 86.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 325SE 175SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 86.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE 75SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 175NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[AZS]

Poor Cozumel....

[skysummit]

http://img471.imageshack.us/img471/7553/2773mt.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

The YP is NOT going to slow this girl down much at all:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[HURAKAN]

skysummit, do you think it could be possible to take the 20ºN latitude line from the image? It's a great photo but the line makes it look bad.