Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

Thank God it's weakened to 115 mph! The damage won't be nearly as bad, since wind damage increases exponentially.

If she has dropped to 115 mph winds she will be nothing but a wimpy storm when she hits Florida. She wont even be as strong as Katrina most likeley now when she hit Florida. I dont think florida is going to have to worry about hardly anything. There will be Hurricane veterens sitting out on their porch watching this one. It will be like a severe thunderstorm to them.

I think the safe thing to assume at this point is that this is a 140 mph storm as NHC reported, especially given this new dropsonde information.

I'm now waiting for someone to tell me the dropsonde data is wrong and to ignore it

[EyELeSs1]

Still borderline Cat 4 based on dropsonde srf winds.

[SamSagnella]

there are no 140 m.p.h. winds in this cyclone. I am not sure why the intensity was kept that high. Due to the double eye, the pressure gradient has become flatter, which has created a larger area of 100KT winds

Exactly -- the double wind maxima is what has saved the NE Yucatan from a much stronger system (wind-wise). However, sustained major hurricane-force winds will be experienced for a significant period of time, so the overall damage inflicted shouldn't really be minimized much at all. I like the analogy of the two category 3s as opposed to one category 4/5...thats pretty much exactly what is happening.

Just one more thing to add to this...

The consistantly-observed concentric eyewalls/wind maxima is what we saw with Hurricane Rita on landfall in LA. There were two (even three at times) areas of 100kt winds as opposed to one ring of 120kt wind, which is approximately what the pressure *could* have supported. Although I hate to look at this as "Derek v. NHC," Derek is describing what is actually occurring down to a 'T.'

[LanceW]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Don't you have to take 80% of that? (If not, sorry, I was wrong..)

[superfly]

based upon the aircraft data, it appears as if Wilma reached land as a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 125 m.p.h. Not as bad as feared, but still worse than Roxanne of 1995

Surprised its not higher, her eye looks a bit clouded on vis, but looks near perfect on IR. Still a very healthy looking storm overall, in my amatuer opinion.

She has double eyewalls - so effectively she's TWO Cat 3 storms, rather than one Cat 4-5. Plus the outer wall is very thick and the eye is large.

She is a CAT 4.
Winds of 140 mph
926 mb

i don´t think we are looking at the same storm

Well, RECON confirms what Derek said, winds of 120 MPH or so.

No it doesn't, dropsonde in the northern eyewall has 118kts (135MPH) surface winds.

[jkt21787]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Don't you have to take 80% of that? (If not, sorry, I was wrong..)

That dropsonde reported winds near the surface, so little or no conversion is needed.

[shawn67]

there are no 140 m.p.h. winds in this cyclone. I am not sure why the intensity was kept that high. Due to the double eye, the pressure gradient has become flatter, which has created a larger area of 100KT winds

Exactly -- the double wind maxima is what has saved the NE Yucatan from a much stronger system (wind-wise). However, sustained major hurricane-force winds will be experienced for a significant period of time, so the overall damage inflicted shouldn't really be minimized much at all. I like the analogy of the two category 3s as opposed to one category 4/5...thats pretty much exactly what is happening.

Just one more thing to add to this...

The consistantly-observed concentric eyewalls/wind maxima is what we saw with Hurricane Rita on landfall in LA. There were two (even three at times) areas of 100kt winds as opposed to one ring of 120kt wind, which is approximately what the pressure *could* have supported. Although I hate to look at this as "Derek v. NHC," Derek is describing what is actually occurring down to a 'T.'

IYHO of course

Shawn

[tallywx]

latest message - also more pics at the link, the first 2 are of them, the others are of the storm.

New Update and Photos (1 PM CDT)
From: "Kevin Alexander Murcko" <cancunkev at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 13:11:19 -0600

First off I would like to thank everyone for their emails and well wishes, it means a lot, thanks.

I have snapped a few more photos of the "beach", the waves are starting to come in with greater force, and the winds have picked up.

The street side has a few more inches of water, but very similar conditions as my last report.

I heard from a friend in Downtown, and he tells me his phone and electricity is out, and that the noise of the wind winding through their apartment building is "amazing".

I also herd back from a client in Playa del Carmen. He tells me basically the same story, and that he will try and stay in touch by cell phone as long as he can. Flood waters are about 10 feet from his home and he has moved all furniture etc. up on the second floor.

More to come....

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

Those have got to be the WORST storm chaser photos I've seen from any storm. They have a cat 4 bearing down on them, and the best they can do are two group "buddy buddy" shots of themselves and two more underexposed photos of what looks to be mud. 5 seconds of photoshop could've at least salvaged the latter ones.

EDIT: looks like they listened. The 5th photo actually has some perspective (e.g. palm trees) in it.

[caneman]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Josh what needs to play out for this to be a threat to Tampa South to Sarasota. My thinking is if it doesn't stall but would like to hear what you have to say.

[LanceW]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Don't you have to take 80% of that? (If not, sorry, I was wrong..)

That dropsonde reported winds near the surface, so little or no conversion is needed.

Oops.. Sorry for the wrong info then.

[Wirbelsturm]

Well, I guess Wilma might have 140 mph winds after all, according to dropsonde. Though, it is possible NHC might be putting out artificial data to support their 2 PM advisory.

[THead]

Yeah, can't we wait until the wind analysis comes out a few weeks later and start another 50+ page thread on that?! Like the wind analysis thread with Katrina that wouldn't die.

[Derek Ortt]

I just see the 118KT as well.

is this at 10m, or did the dropsonde fail at about 20m

Something does seem strange since the MBL wind is only 104KT

UZNT13 KNHC 211801
XXAA 71188 99206 70866 08106 99938 25604 <b>07118</b> 00/// ///// /////
92122 24603 07614 85864 21603 08103 70539 13800 88999 77999
31313 09608 81730
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 010 SPL 2060N08677W 1734 MBL WND <b>07104</b> AEV 20507 =
XXBB 71188 99206 70866 08106 00938 25604 11850 21603 22724 16808
33705 16200 44697 12000
21212 00938 07118 11928 07612 22921 08115 33913 07607 44850 08103
55697 10109
31313 09608 81730
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 010 SPL 2060N08677W 1734 MBL WND 07104 AEV 20507 =

[6SpeedTA95]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Don't you have to take 80% of that? (If not, sorry, I was wrong..)

That depends totally on flight level that hte winds were taken at. At 10,000 feet the new thinking is 90% at 5000 feet its 93%. I just use 90 all the way around

[quandary]

It appears that the post-storm wind analysis will not be all that exciting. Recon just reported 118kts at the surface (about 135-140mph) which is what the NHC has it at. No one seems to be saying higher, although it looks somewhat strong on satellite and some are saying that its weaker (but 118 seems to be some confirmation that it is near 140 if not there).

[linkerweather]

And recon dropsonde measured 118kt in the eyewall....so 118x1.1507=135.8 mph

Josh what needs to play out for this to be a threat to Tampa South to Sarasota. My thinking is if it doesn't stall but would like to hear what you have to say.

Well, I am still looking at stuff but It seems to me that SRQ northward(maybe closer to Ft. Myers northward-but I am a bit concerned if it makes too much northward progress before turning) looks to be in the clear from a LANDFALL DIRECT HIT. With that said, the wind field on the northern half will be expanding dramamtically with the approach of a bonafide cold front. (temps Tuesday morning may drop into the 40s around BKV)
With that said, I would anticiapte quite a bit of rain along with strong sustained persistant wind around TBW MOnday of around 35 to 50 mph. Add about 5 to 10 mph around SRQ and diminish very slightly farther north near BKV due to the cold front and WIlma.

THis is a preliminary statement I am making as I feel it is not too late to wait for about one or 2 more solid model cycles (cheating to see if Wilma is far enough north) before really nailing one down.

Still seems reasonable to me Ft. Myers south to Naples as a landfall point.

[EyELeSs1]

You call it artificial...i call it expertise...they nailed the drop in pressure down to 926mb at 1pm CDT before any vortex was sent.

Simply they know best...and if you havn't taken any uni level phys/eng. courses pls do not ridicule the intensity as there is physics behind it not emotions as someone also said.

[superfly]

It appears that the post-storm wind analysis will not be all that exciting. Recon just reported 118kts at the surface (about 135-140mph) which is what the NHC has it at. No one seems to be saying higher, although it looks somewhat strong on satellite and some are saying that its weaker (but 118 seems to be some confirmation that it is near 140 if not there).

118kts at the surface in just that one spot so it is probably safe to assume there are 120kts winds if not higher somewhere else in the storm.

[quandary]

Wilma definitely wins the award for having the most clear and well-defined eye to hit land in recent times. I don't think any storm has been this clean at landfall. Katrina was stronger, but its eye was clouded and convection exploded after the storm made landfall. Ivan had a very crisp eye that completely fell apart about 5 hours before landfall. Dennis had a small pinhole eye (at Cuba, like Charley in Port Charlotte) and was weaker pressure-wise. Emily's eye on the Yucatan completely messed up and on mainland Mexico, it was cleaner, but the storm was much weaker than Wilma is now. Rita's eye was a mess at landfall with three wind maxima. Frances and Jeanne don't compare, although Jeanne was rather cool about 12 hours before landfall. Pictures of these storms at landfall would be appreciated.

[cycloneye]

369
UZNT13 KNHC 211806
XXAA 71188 99202 70868 08106 99939 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85865 21006 28617 70536 14000 88999 77999
31313 09608 81750
51515 10191
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 230 LST WND 681 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 71188 99202 70868 08106 00939 ///// 11870 21606 22850 21006
33721 15808 44705 15400 55697 13000
21212 00939 ///// 11868 28619 22850 28617 33697 31078
31313 09608 81750
51515 10191
61616 AF305 1524A WILMA OB 11
62626 EYEWALL 230 LST WND 681 AEV 20507 =


Derek here is another Dropsonde after the previous one.