Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[CHRISTY]

ive been watching wilma all day and iam just wating to see if this stall actually takes place because if does not take place it will spend less time over land,its probably gonna take all night 2 see what happens..... tonight is very important for south florida it will tell if we get a weak storm or strong hurricane.

[CHRISTY]

can you post a link of the 12z gfs

[artist]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/



here are some links I have to model sites

[fci]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. Shes supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

Hope you are right.
I have been saying the same thing for the last 24 hours and have been ridiculed for it.

The time it has taken for this storm to move and the continual push-back of arrival in Fl tells me that it will be not much of a story for FL, if, and when; it ever gets here.

[flhurricaneguy]

what does the gfs have for intensity @ florida landfall?

[skysummit]

what does the gfs have for intensity @ florida landfall?

Cat 2 I believe.

[cinlfla]

can you post a link of the 12z gfs

Christy I am sure these nice folks on here don't mind posting links for you but I thought I would help you out a little bit. The next time you see a graphic of a model you want to look at just right click on the picture and go to properties and it gives you the URL address for the graphic website

[HomesteadHoney]

Whether it's a wobble or not, right now she is heading more west into the Yucatan.....effectively committing suicide. Unless something changes soon, I don't think there will be much left by the time it gets here.

I hope your right. The NHC has it entering the Yucatan as a Cat 4 and exiting as a cat 3. Forecast as a Cat 2 approaching Florida.

Click on the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box of this satellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looking at this link, it is right on track, and maybe a little fast. It is very close to hitting the 12 hour point from the 11 AM.

I agree, right on track and maybe slightly faster.

Help me out here , I click the link and do not see the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box. I see across the top: county, roads, lat/lon, winds, severe watch/warn, MSLP (2), Radar, NWS Front. Where is the box for the forecast points?

[dwg71]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. Shes supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

Hope you are right.
I have been saying the same thing for the last 24 hours and have been ridiculed for it.

The time it has taken for this storm to move and the continual push-back of arrival in Fl tells me that it will be not much of a story for FL, if, and when; it ever gets here.

I tend to believe it will be a cat1/TS at landfall. JMHO. But, I think it will be the extreme southern tip of Fl.

[x-y-no]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. Shes supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

Hope you are right.
I have been saying the same thing for the last 24 hours and have been ridiculed for it.

The time it has taken for this storm to move and the continual push-back of arrival in Fl tells me that it will be not much of a story for FL, if, and when; it ever gets here.

'Scuse me, but here's the 12Z GFDL run at 90 hours:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005102112-wilma24l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=090hr

Dosn't look like a trivial event to me. Those are Cat 2 winds through all the Keys and metropolitan SEFL, not to mention near hurrican conditions all the way up to Tampa.

[THead]

Its all the way in the upper right corner HH, maybe you need to maximize the window to see it.

[FloridaHawk82]

All I know is that it must be somewhat voodoo-creepy on Cozumel right about now... prayers for them.

[cinlfla]

[THead]

I don't know, I was leaning toward a weak system by the time it gets to florida also, but the way she is moving, and holding together, I don't see it weakening much, over what is appearing to be a shorter than expected visit over the YP.
JMHO

[cycloneye]

Hey folks let's not relax as it may weaken to a cat 2 maybe to a cat 1 because being 1 or 2 is no piece of cake.

[x-y-no]

Help me out here , I click the link and do not see the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box. I see across the top: county, roads, lat/lon, winds, severe watch/warn, MSLP (2), Radar, NWS Front. Where is the box for the forecast points?

I have the same problem in Firefox, but in IE the checkbox is there. Don't know what causes that.

It's a pain, because I don't like IE.

[skysummit]

Help me out here , I click the link and do not see the "Trop Fcst Pts" check box. I see across the top: county, roads, lat/lon, winds, severe watch/warn, MSLP (2), Radar, NWS Front. Where is the box for the forecast points?

I have the same problem in Firefox, but in IE the checkbox is there. Don't know what causes that.

It's a pain, because I don't like IE.

Hmm...everything thing works fine for me in Firefox. Do you have the latest update?

[fci]

If the GFDL new run pans out there wont be nothing much left of Wilma. Florida will be spared bigtime. She supposed to steadily weaken once she enters into the Gulf because of very hostile shear. With the center that long on land and shear she could possibly just hit as a strong tropical storm. What a blessing for florida that would be.

I don't think Fla will be spared. They will see a cat3 on landfall

I dont think so she is basically almost cat 3 already. At the most she will likeley be only a strong cat 1 when she hits florida or if she amazingly holds together that well a weak cat 2 IF it does exactly what the GFDL shows.[/u]

She is a pretty solid cat 4 right now. New recon data confirms this (eyewall dropsonde suggested 118kt SURFACE winds)

Derek has it down to 125 as of 2 PM.

[stormynorfolk]

I don't know if it's a stall or just a 'non-jog', but she seems to be hitting the brakes:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[tampaflwx]

NOTE: THIS IS NOT CURRENT

I am looking for the updated version of this image, which has quite a few models...