Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Derek Ortt]

are our memories that short? Have we forgotten the lessons from Dennis and Emily?

Both canes weakened far more than this is forecast to in far less time over land. If anything, the intensity forecast over the Yucatan is on the high side, though afterwards, re-intensification is quite likely

[6SpeedTA95]

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?

That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.

It the eye is overland for more than 24hrs that seems pretty reasonable.

[CronkPSU]

to be honest, i bet more people have memories of katrina's lack of deintensification

each storm is different, it still is not even definite if the entire eye will be over land for any stretch of time

[6SpeedTA95]

are our memories that short? Have we forgotten the lessons from Dennis and Emily?

Both canes weakened far more than this is forecast to in far less time over land. If anything, the intensity forecast over the Yucatan is on the high side, though afterwards, re-intensification is quite likely

Thats what I said and another guy earlier, if it stays over land it WILL weaken and if its over land for 24 to 36 hours as forcasted it will weaken. It can reorganize in the gulf a bit but if its picked up by the low as expected it'll be movin fairly quick in an environment not nearly as friendly as the waters she's moving out of. Cat1/2 seems reasonable at florida landfall.

[storms in NC]

She may pull a Ivan.

[Flakeys]

Will our new invest have an effect on Wilma? They seem to be in about the same place on Monday.

[jpigott]

question for the mets on the board - last year with Charley we saw some extreme intensification within the hours prior to landfall. My understanding for 1 reason for this intensification was the outflow channel created by the approaching front, which turned Charley NE. How is the developing situation with Wilma different - meaning there is supposed to be an approaching front which will lift Wilma to the NE, could be see another one of these explosive intensifications due to an outflow channel created by an interaction bwtn Wilma and the front. Someone correct me if i'm way off base

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THE EYE OF WILMA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONTRACTING DURING THE DAY...
WITH THE EYE DIAMETER DOWN TO 25 N MI COMPARED TO 30 N MI THIS
MORNING. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS REMAIN AT RADII OF ABOUT 20 AND 40 N
MI... WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATING THAT THE OUTER
EYEWALL CONTAINS THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEVERAL EYEWALL DROPSONDES
HAVE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 110-130 KT RANGE. ONE SUCH
SONDE MEASUREMENT MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS... BUT A SEQUENCE OF THEM PROBABLY PROVIDES A REASONABLE
ESTIMATED OF THE INTENSITY... WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THIS RANGE AT 120 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNANIMOUSLY
T6.5/127 KT.

WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY MOTION OF 320 DEGREES AT 4
KT. THE CENTER OF THE EYE IS CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL AT THIS HOUR... BUT DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE EYE TO CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEARLY ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST WILMA TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
PROCEED RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES WILMA COULD SPEND ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER
LAND... WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE WEAKENING THAN HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL INCREASE THE
DURATION OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER YUCATAN. IT
SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT. WHEN IT DOES REACH
THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF
THE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER
YUCATAN.

THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR NOW...
REGARDING WHERE WILMA WILL PASS OVER FLORIDA... ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
OF COURSE ALL BE WRONG TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN THE 3-4 DAY LEAD TIME.
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE IMPACT ON
FLORIDA... SO THE WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WILMA WILL EVENTUALLY
GO... THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING REMAINS LARGE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.6N 86.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 20.9N 87.3W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.2N 87.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 22.7N 86.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 32.0N 75.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 42.0N 62.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Steve H.]

I agree Derek, This is a large system and as such, will take some time to weaken over land, but will intensify again while on its way to Floria. Hurricane Mitch was over Honduras/Guatamala for 11 days! It still touched into the Pacific, went into the GOM then NE'wd across Florida as a TS. I see a Cat 2/3 at landfall in SW Florida.

[6SpeedTA95]

West and Northwest sides of the storm look like it maybe weakening a bit. Inflow/outflow appears to be impaired slightly and maybe being sheared a bit.

[Patrick99]

What will the tagline of the 5PM news be....."Miami Dodges Another Bullet?" Unless it pulls a dancing Ivan, I just get the feeling of a big non-event over here. I don't see how she could maintain hurricane strength for that long over land.

[AZS]

Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

[thermos]

Does anyone even believe the 24+ hours over land forecast? The cold front is already in Texas. And they've pretty much botched this forecast completely up to this point. Remember it was originally supposed to be in Florida tomorrow. Pretty lousy prediction that turned out to be.

[THead]

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?

That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.

It the eye is overland for more than 24hrs that seems pretty reasonable.

Agreed, just don't see how its going to stay over the very small tip of the YP for 24 hours.

[conestogo_flood]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

[6SpeedTA95]

question for the mets on the board - last year with Charley we saw some extreme intensification within the hours prior to landfall. My understanding for 1 reason for this intensification was the outflow channel created by the approaching front, which turned Charley NE. How is the developing situation with Wilma different - meaning there is supposed to be an approaching front which will lift Wilma to the NE, could be see another one of these explosive intensifications due to an outflow channel created by an interaction bwtn Wilma and the front. Someone correct me if i'm way off base

There could be intensification if front and storm timing are correct you could see a similar pattern, but the SST and TCHP were much higher for charley and the shearing environment was favorable for tropical cyclone development. I'm not a pro met, so maybe one of those guys can shed some more light on it, if they dont a friend of mine is a met and I'll ask him.

[6SpeedTA95]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

Yes very quick intensification.

[THead]

Nice post AZS, intensity forecasting seems to be the biggest mystery of all. And thats just one example, I'm sure we could dig up alot more.

[6SpeedTA95]

I think the new Forecast intensity is WAY to low, weakening it to a 1 over the Yucatan!?

That does seem hard to believe at this point. We'll have to see though, as it has definitely slowed down the last few frames.

It the eye is overland for more than 24hrs that seems pretty reasonable.

Agreed, just don't see how its going to stay over the very small tip of the YP for 24 hours.

I dont know how viable that prediction was either. In fact it seems somewhat unlikely, but you have to admit this thing has not sped up and myself and a lot of folks were thinking it would begin gaining momentum wednesday night and it didn't do it. The speed/movement remain very unpredictible with this storm simply because of all the potential steering elements that are all timing dependant. She could miss the connection with the front and upper level low and basically have free run at the GOM or she could get out just ahead of the front (ie not stalling over the yucatan) and make landfall a little further north of its current projections or it could simply do as predicted.

[conestogo_flood]

Didn't Charley go from Category Two to Category Four just off the Florida Coast?

Yes very quick intensification.

Do the water temperatures pose the threat to form a similar situation, maybe a Category One then jump to strong two or weak three?