Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#341 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:00 am

We'll need to see a couple more runs to see if the models are going to consistantly erode the ridge, but holy hell, that's bad news for the CONUS Gulf Coast if that ridge doesn't hold.

#342 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:09 am

Good consensus the models have on the short time, and the next few days the end of Rita will become clear.

canegrl04 · #343 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:33 am

Alot of evacuees have re settled in Houston. If Rita hits Houston,how awful for those people

#344 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:38 am

gfdl switches to central lousiana :eek:

oneness · #345 Postby **oneness** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:49 am

Look again, it shows central Texas.

#346 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:52 am

oneness wrote:Look again, it shows central Texas.

It shows Central Louisiana. You may need to hold the "shift" key when clicking refresh in your browser. Most of the maps from our site will update automatically in these forums, but you may need to clear your browser cache.

oneness · #347 Postby **oneness** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:53 am

ah my mistake, thanks

#348 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:58 am

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA ENTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

#349 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:03 am

I'm just more concerned about the jump north the models have taken overnight. What are the general thoughts on the board regarding us here in S. FL???

#350 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:06 am

19/1145 UTC 22.9N 74.7W T3.5/3.5 RITA -- Atlantic Ocean

MortisFL · #351 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:13 am

Canelaw99 wrote:I'm just more concerned about the jump north the models have taken overnight. What are the general thoughts on the board regarding us here in S. FL???

Your going to get some high winds and heavy rain in Homestead. I think the center will stay to the south, but stay alarmed.

#352 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:17 am

NAM 06 MODEL

48 HOURS

84 HOURS

#353 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:18 am

That's what I'm figuring Mortis....just always interested to see the views of others, so thank you

EDIT: Southflorida, that model is a bit disconcerting....it's a fairly reliable one too isn't it?

ronjon · #354 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:18 am

Looks like the 5 AM NHC guidance is now on the south side of the latest model runs. The new 12Z GFDL has shifted north and east. At their 8 AM intermediate advisory, it looks like they making plans to shift the track north and allow for a larger storm. Things gonna get real interesting with the future track of Rita. :roll:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_18.gif

#355 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:18 am

What could that model be picking up that the others aren't?

canegrl04 · #356 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:18 am

I think she will become a hurricne by 5pm :eek:

#357 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:20 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:What could that model be picking up that the others aren't?

That's what I'm thinking too. Looking at WV, that gulf high seems to be really strong still this morning.

TS Zack · #358 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:22 am

A stronger trough digging into the midwest by late next week. You have to remember this is still 5 days out. WV isn't going to be a good tool that far out.

#359 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:23 am

TS Zack wrote:A stronger trough digging into the midwest by late next week. You have to remember this is still 5 days out. WV isn't going to be a good tool that far out.

Ok, thanks Zack. You're right, I won't see a stupid trough on WV right now. :roll:

#360 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:25 am

That NAM model is 48 hours (first image), not 5 days from now.

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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