TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Blown Away]

Ok, so I guess they found a LLC! Now I wonder how sharp the NE turn.

[mike815]

I KNEW IT. IT SURE ISNT DEAD!! THIS TD IS A FIGHTER.

[SouthFloridawx]

4pm isn't the final advisory... but it sounds like they didn't find a center. It's defintely on life support.

Brent they found an elongated center....

It is on life support though but, hanging on with that convection to the east. I would vote this thing doesn't have a shot but, the covection to the east continues....

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS WHAT THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING TODAY... THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WINDS
AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED
BY THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 1006 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS A
BIT SLOPPY... SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE BY... BUT ONLY ON
THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY... THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS...
BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT... A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF ABOUT
30 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT... AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.

[Brent]

Yeah... the "estimated" wording in the advisory led me to believe they didn't find out, still they BARELY did. I also noticed they now weaken it at Day 5.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah... the "estimated" wording in the advisory led me to believe they didn't find out, still they BARELY did. I also noticed they now weaken it at Day 5.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[SouthFloridawx]

[artist]

How would you like that crow, fried, steamed or stuffed???


Anyway I thought shear was supposed to be lessening in the next couple of days?

[SouthFloridawx]

I have Crow waiting in the wings!

If this were October, September than you'd be right, but its mid November and the season officially ends by November 30 about 2 weeks away. I for one know that I will not be eating crow at all.

Would you like some steak sauce for that crow?

[Brent]

Yeah... the "estimated" wording in the advisory led me to believe they didn't find out, still they BARELY did. I also noticed they now weaken it at Day 5.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Exactly why this will not hit the U.S.

[x-y-no]

Yeah... the "estimated" wording in the advisory led me to believe they didn't find out, still they BARELY did. I also noticed they now weaken it at Day 5.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Exactly why this will not hit the U.S.

Yeah, if this does hang together, I still think the most likely scenario is a recurvature across eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

[THead]

Yeah... the "estimated" wording in the advisory led me to believe they didn't find out, still they BARELY did. I also noticed they now weaken it at Day 5.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Exactly why this will not hit the U.S.

Like the SW shear that was supposed to tear apart Wilma? If she's heading NE by that point, and relatively organized, the SW shear isn't going to effect her as much, because she will be moving WITH the shear. We saw this 3 weeks ago.....remember?

[cjrciadt]

[krysof]

I have Crow waiting in the wings!

If this were October, September than you'd be right, but its mid November and the season officially ends by November 30 about 2 weeks away. I for one know that I will not be eating crow at all.

Would you like some steak sauce for that crow?

this will die shortly, its barely alive

[ncweatherwizard]

I imagine that there was some thought put into whether or not to write off the system, and with a potential LLC still there, they keep the storm for consistency. Microwave images from a couple of hours ago confirm that the system is probably very near if not a tropical wave, with the axis located through the former center.

AMSU and RE (newer) microwave at NRL: http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Scott

[MGC]

An elongated circulation center is usually the kiss of death. I doubt 27 survives, yet another tropical cyclone the victim of shear. My money is on the disturbance in the SW Caribbean, little shear and warm SST....MGC

[brunota2003]

I have extra crow waiting in the wings, just incase, oh the T numbers are up to 2.5/2.5, or Tropical Storm status with 40 MPH winds, so I think the next couple advisorys are going to be interesting, possible upgrade to Gamma??? Seems possible to me, enlongated circulation doesnt mean its going to die...

[brunota2003]

oh, so i dont attempt to get trashed again, here's my source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[mike815]

Right i still thing that this TD is a real fighter and just because its elongaded does not mean it will die. I do belive it will become a named storm. If im wrong im wrong. I agree Tim.

[WxGuy1]

LOL Some you you guys will learn that you should NEVER be completely certain with tropical activity. The science of forecasting tropical activity is still rather immature, and there's a LOT we need to learn. I would be very cautious to ever say that any tropical system has NO chance of doing anything, just as I'd be VERY cautious to say that a particular cyclone (ESPECIALLY one which is barely a cyclone -- like this TD) will rapidly intensify. The observations is sparse, and the models are usually far from very accurate. Heck, if you remember from a couple of days ago, the NHC discusison mentioned that the storm must stay north or else it'd get shear apart by high shear in the southern Carib. 12 hours later, they said the EXACT opposite -- the storm must stay south to avoid the nasty shear in the northern Caribbean. The point? Models are only guidance, and forecasts are rarely certain.

OK, if a storm is moving over waters <20C, then you can be more certain of disintegration. But with shear, it's tough to forecast either way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

41 knots at flight level x .9 is 42.435 mph at the surface...

41 knots at flight level x .8 is 37.7 mph at the surface. So that 2.5/2.5 is darn close. In even this being as disorganized as it is is very close to tropical storm if not one.