Yeah i understand. Very true. I didnt say anything about this getting very strong. I think it will become a named storm though. And thats just my personal opinion.WxGuy1 wrote:LOL Some you you guys will learn that you should NEVER be completely certain with tropical activity. The science of forecasting tropical activity is still rather immature, and there's a LOT we need to learn. I would be very cautious to ever say that any tropical system has NO chance of doing anything, just as I'd be VERY cautious to say that a particular cyclone (ESPECIALLY one which is barely a cyclone -- like this TD) will rapidly intensify. The observations is sparse, and the models are usually far from very accurate. Heck, if you remember from a couple of days ago, the NHC discusison mentioned that the storm must stay north or else it'd get shear apart by high shear in the southern Carib. 12 hours later, they said the EXACT opposite -- the storm must stay south to avoid the nasty shear in the northern Caribbean. The point? Models are only guidance, and forecasts are rarely certain.
OK, if a storm is moving over waters <20C, then you can be more certain of disintegration. But with shear, it's tough to forecast either way.
TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
0 likes
-
THead
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 790
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
- Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.
I have utmost respect for the NHC's track forecasts, but as for intensity, forget it, we can just officially say that nobody really has a clue, and I mean nobody. So I guess we watch and wait, and see what happens. I truly hope we won't be watching long......and that this thing just gets ripped apart.
0 likes
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WHXX04 KWBC 152324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L
INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.4 68.6 280./11.1
6 14.6 69.8 283./12.2
12 14.5 71.3 264./14.8
18 14.4 72.7 268./13.9
24 14.9 74.3 289./15.8
30 15.2 75.6 280./13.0
36 15.6 77.1 287./14.8
42 15.7 78.9 273./18.0
48 15.8 80.4 271./13.9
54 15.7 81.8 268./13.4
60 15.1 82.5 232./ 9.2
66 14.6 82.9 216./ 6.2
72 13.9 83.1 199./ 7.0
78 13.6 82.9 144./ 4.0
84 13.4 82.7 140./ 3.5
90 13.4 82.0 81./ 6.3
96 13.7 81.4 67./ 6.7
102 14.1 80.9 54./ 5.9
108 14.7 80.3 45./ 8.8
114 15.6 79.8 25./10.3
120 16.8 80.0 350./11.6
126 17.3 80.5 315./ 7.2
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L
INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.4 68.6 280./11.1
6 14.6 69.8 283./12.2
12 14.5 71.3 264./14.8
18 14.4 72.7 268./13.9
24 14.9 74.3 289./15.8
30 15.2 75.6 280./13.0
36 15.6 77.1 287./14.8
42 15.7 78.9 273./18.0
48 15.8 80.4 271./13.9
54 15.7 81.8 268./13.4
60 15.1 82.5 232./ 9.2
66 14.6 82.9 216./ 6.2
72 13.9 83.1 199./ 7.0
78 13.6 82.9 144./ 4.0
84 13.4 82.7 140./ 3.5
90 13.4 82.0 81./ 6.3
96 13.7 81.4 67./ 6.7
102 14.1 80.9 54./ 5.9
108 14.7 80.3 45./ 8.8
114 15.6 79.8 25./10.3
120 16.8 80.0 350./11.6
126 17.3 80.5 315./ 7.2
0 likes
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
jusforsean
- Category 1
- Posts: 395
- Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:22 am
- Location: South Florida
Bring me up to speed pls.....
Its hard enough to get a grip on learning how to interpret the models etc... let alone keep up here... Since i last checked in ( a few hours ago:) ) WHERE ARE WE AT??? Did the soon to be Gamma fizzle out or not?? I heard that 94l i think resurfaced??? Exactly whats out there and whats the latest?? Thanks for the update 
0 likes
-
JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
Re: Bring me up to speed pls.....
jusforsean wrote:Its hard enough to get a grip on learning how to interpret the models etc... let alone keep up here... Since i last checked in ( a few hours ago:) ) WHERE ARE WE AT??? Did the soon to be Gamma fizzle out or not?? I heard that 94l i think resurfaced??? Exactly whats out there and whats the latest?? Thanks for the update
this is 94L its 93L that is back. Right now TD27 (94L) is hanging in there however as many have said its on life support! lol There are some people that are saying that 93L WILL develop and will absorb TD27.
0 likes
-
jusforsean
- Category 1
- Posts: 395
- Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:22 am
- Location: South Florida
Thanks Jamesfrommaine Yes 93l sorry, i realized after, I wish i could see a radar or image of how close they are and get an idea when they might absorb?? Thats actually pretty cool, If i am correct i was told that if one system swallows another it doesnt necessarily intensify the storm that is absorbing, i am going to check 93 out.
0 likes
-
JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
jusforsean wrote:Thanks Jamesfrommaine Yes 93l sorry, i realized after, I wish i could see a radar or image of how close they are and get an idea when they might absorb?? Thats actually pretty cool, If i am correct i was told that if one system swallows another it doesnt necessarily intensify the storm that is absorbing, i am going to check 93 out.
Heres a image showing both systems. and yes it will be very interesting to see what happens!
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
00Z models, SHIPS more optimistic for intensification.
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051116 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 0000 051116 1200 051117 0000 051117 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 69.6W 14.7N 71.3W 14.6N 73.1W 14.6N 75.2W
BAMM 14.8N 69.6W 15.0N 72.0W 15.0N 74.4W 15.3N 77.1W
A98E 14.8N 69.6W 15.1N 72.0W 15.3N 74.3W 15.4N 76.6W
LBAR 14.8N 69.6W 15.2N 71.6W 15.8N 73.2W 16.0N 74.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 0000 051119 0000 051120 0000 051121 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 77.2W 16.5N 80.3W 18.2N 82.2W 22.8N 78.3W
BAMM 16.0N 79.6W 16.7N 82.9W 16.1N 84.9W 15.3N 85.6W
A98E 15.8N 78.6W 16.1N 81.3W 16.6N 83.2W 17.4N 83.8W
LBAR 16.1N 75.2W 16.0N 75.1W 15.8N 74.3W 16.6N 72.5W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 38KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 67.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051116 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 0000 051116 1200 051117 0000 051117 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 69.6W 14.7N 71.3W 14.6N 73.1W 14.6N 75.2W
BAMM 14.8N 69.6W 15.0N 72.0W 15.0N 74.4W 15.3N 77.1W
A98E 14.8N 69.6W 15.1N 72.0W 15.3N 74.3W 15.4N 76.6W
LBAR 14.8N 69.6W 15.2N 71.6W 15.8N 73.2W 16.0N 74.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 0000 051119 0000 051120 0000 051121 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 77.2W 16.5N 80.3W 18.2N 82.2W 22.8N 78.3W
BAMM 16.0N 79.6W 16.7N 82.9W 16.1N 84.9W 15.3N 85.6W
A98E 15.8N 78.6W 16.1N 81.3W 16.6N 83.2W 17.4N 83.8W
LBAR 16.1N 75.2W 16.0N 75.1W 15.8N 74.3W 16.6N 72.5W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 38KTS
DSHP 51KTS 57KTS 51KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 67.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes
-
jusforsean
- Category 1
- Posts: 395
- Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:22 am
- Location: South Florida
INTERESTING PIECE I JUST READ BELOW:
okay, looks like i'm going to get my sw caribbean feature. and 27 shouldn't be able to stop it, which i was wrong about the other day. it's becoming too well-defined. no Dvorak classification on it but i'd guess it's a 1.5. you can SEE the low cloud motions swirling around it's broad center.. the little feature that cycloidally looped off the nw colombia coast the other day appears to be what this thing is focusing around. appears to be moving slowly... as all that anticyclonic riding aloft evacuates thunderstorms and causes pressures to fall dynamically.. it should tighten up and become a classified system tomorrow. as it becomes a defined system it should begin to move westward... and end up moving ashore in nicaragua later on thursday i'm guessing. it's very broad, so it might still be acting up on the pacific side.
to the east td 27 is getting under progressively less shear. its proximity to the developing system to the west should make continued development slow. the recon mission today found 41kt flight level winds, which usually equates to a tropical storm.. but they've gone on the side of conservatism. center is poorly defined, partially due to its speed. the strong easterly flow to the north is pushing it right along, but even so shear is decreasing and the center seems to be clinging to and refiring convection to the east. ssd has rated it a 2.5 tropical storm for three consecutive cycles... collectively the evidence for upgrading it seems to be there. the convective signature should become much clearer some time overnight, even though the NHC advisories have mentioned it 'needing to survive the next 24 hours shear' in every one of the recent advisories. the upper cloud motions and rate of shear reduction suggest to me that it'll fnally get through pretty soon, as well as the GFS termination of the westerly 200mb vectors just beyond its location. another recon should be in tonight, so we'll know one way or another. as it goes further west it should still develop more or less along the lines of the earlier idea... perhaps a little less so, due to competition with the other system. the other system should cross central america, however, while 27 should get hung up by height falls to the nw, giving it an eventually different fate. the global consensus in the long term turns it ne after a stall, kinda like what i was thinking... only the tracks have now shifted further south, closer to eastern cuba. looks about right.
in the middle to long term, other things are showing up. the deep layer system forecast to dig in northeast of the caribbean has a non-development profile in the models, but only a little change and the potential exists for a drill-down. around ten days out, with a deep trough in the east, a block near greenland, and a corresponding deep layer system in the eastern atlantic from the strong nao-negative configuration... whatever is cut off over there may also make a run at hybrid development. the shear profiles from the extremely amplified pattern could potentially support such an outcome.
i'll throw in that the current severe weather tonight appears to be right on with bastardi's forecast step-down to cold pattern. the models are showing more cold air and a deep trough in the east next week...as a matter of fact the euro and GFS are showing systems that could produce winter weather around thanksgiving in parts of the southeast. needless to say i'm interested. the models haven't converged yet on particular shortwave features, but the basic pattern setup appears to be coming together. climatological fall is going out with a bang around here, looks like. something has to balance all that activity in the tropics.
HF 2355z15november
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 15 2005 06:57 PM)
okay, looks like i'm going to get my sw caribbean feature. and 27 shouldn't be able to stop it, which i was wrong about the other day. it's becoming too well-defined. no Dvorak classification on it but i'd guess it's a 1.5. you can SEE the low cloud motions swirling around it's broad center.. the little feature that cycloidally looped off the nw colombia coast the other day appears to be what this thing is focusing around. appears to be moving slowly... as all that anticyclonic riding aloft evacuates thunderstorms and causes pressures to fall dynamically.. it should tighten up and become a classified system tomorrow. as it becomes a defined system it should begin to move westward... and end up moving ashore in nicaragua later on thursday i'm guessing. it's very broad, so it might still be acting up on the pacific side.
to the east td 27 is getting under progressively less shear. its proximity to the developing system to the west should make continued development slow. the recon mission today found 41kt flight level winds, which usually equates to a tropical storm.. but they've gone on the side of conservatism. center is poorly defined, partially due to its speed. the strong easterly flow to the north is pushing it right along, but even so shear is decreasing and the center seems to be clinging to and refiring convection to the east. ssd has rated it a 2.5 tropical storm for three consecutive cycles... collectively the evidence for upgrading it seems to be there. the convective signature should become much clearer some time overnight, even though the NHC advisories have mentioned it 'needing to survive the next 24 hours shear' in every one of the recent advisories. the upper cloud motions and rate of shear reduction suggest to me that it'll fnally get through pretty soon, as well as the GFS termination of the westerly 200mb vectors just beyond its location. another recon should be in tonight, so we'll know one way or another. as it goes further west it should still develop more or less along the lines of the earlier idea... perhaps a little less so, due to competition with the other system. the other system should cross central america, however, while 27 should get hung up by height falls to the nw, giving it an eventually different fate. the global consensus in the long term turns it ne after a stall, kinda like what i was thinking... only the tracks have now shifted further south, closer to eastern cuba. looks about right.
in the middle to long term, other things are showing up. the deep layer system forecast to dig in northeast of the caribbean has a non-development profile in the models, but only a little change and the potential exists for a drill-down. around ten days out, with a deep trough in the east, a block near greenland, and a corresponding deep layer system in the eastern atlantic from the strong nao-negative configuration... whatever is cut off over there may also make a run at hybrid development. the shear profiles from the extremely amplified pattern could potentially support such an outcome.
i'll throw in that the current severe weather tonight appears to be right on with bastardi's forecast step-down to cold pattern. the models are showing more cold air and a deep trough in the east next week...as a matter of fact the euro and GFS are showing systems that could produce winter weather around thanksgiving in parts of the southeast. needless to say i'm interested. the models haven't converged yet on particular shortwave features, but the basic pattern setup appears to be coming together. climatological fall is going out with a bang around here, looks like. something has to balance all that activity in the tropics.
HF 2355z15november
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 15 2005 06:57 PM)
0 likes
-
Scorpion
-
SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8345
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
-
MiamiensisWx
-
MiamiensisWx
It is interesting to note that, although the official forecast weakens TD 27 towards or at the end of the forecast period after peaking as a hurricane, that the forecasted track currently shows a sharp turn more to the northwest right at the end of the forecasted track... rather similar to Wilma...
Also, there are fronts that come through...
Also, there are fronts that come through...
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37988
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
It looks like it's about to be a moot point...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ALMOST LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND
COULD DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE DEPRESSION
MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ALMOST LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND
COULD DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE DEPRESSION
MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37988
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:It is interesting to note that, although the official forecast weakens TD 27 towards or at the end of the forecast period after peaking as a hurricane, that the forecasted track currently shows a sharp turn more to the northwest right at the end of the forecasted track... rather similar to Wilma...
Also, there are fronts that come through...
Normally I'd agree, but these fronts are POWERFUL. It will make a hard right and miss Florida to the east. There's no way it would survive reaching Florida with the unfavorable conditions behind the fronts...
0 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests