Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Sanibel · #3741 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:48 pm

Just finished raising saveables to upper floor.

This storm is frightening.

It is overland and still showing a solid core with a "donut" look to it.

The outer core-wall looks like an annular eye.

I fear what this storm will look like when it crosses the loop current.

This is trending towards strong in my mind...

krysof · #3742 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:48 pm

Am I seeing colder cloud tops on the eastern side of the storm, or aren't I? It looks like it wants to explode once it hits the waters. It looks so well organized for a storm that long inland.

#3743 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:49 pm

957mb and 90kt latest vortex

#3744 Postby **stormynorfolk** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:50 pm

ronjon wrote:The 12Z GFDL has the storm about right with its current location and intensity. This model brings a 120 kt cane into the Port Charlotte/Ft Myers area in 48 hours. This is gonna be bad, very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Looks like things could get quite breezy/windy up the entire E. Coast... will be interesting to see if that pans out.

chris_fit · #3745 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:52 pm

GFDL has a 100knot hurricane basically over my home in Palm Bay :grr:

El Nino · #3746 Postby **El Nino** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:53 pm

krysof wrote:Am I seeing colder cloud tops on the eastern side of the storm, or aren't I? It looks like it wants to explode once it hits the waters. It looks so well organized for a storm that long inland.

Agree with that. 18 jours inland (and don't forget Cozumel) and still quite healthy. Other storms would be killed by land interaction. She's trying to do something. My God, this hurricane is maybe a human !

#3747 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:55 pm

Wilma keeps wowing us with her tenacity...

krysof · #3748 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:55 pm

stormynorfolk wrote:
ronjon wrote:The 12Z GFDL has the storm about right with its current location and intensity. This model brings a 120 kt cane into the Port Charlotte/Ft Myers area in 48 hours. This is gonna be bad, very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Looks like things could get quite breezy/windy up the entire E. Coast... will be interesting to see if that pans out.

It has TS force winds up and down the EC including my area. Latest gfs is even worse though.

markymark8 · #3749 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:55 pm

The eastern eyewall on Wilma is looking not too shabby guys!!! She has held together pretty decent. She looks alot better than I thought she would and more symmectrical too. I admit I really thought she would of looked alot worse than this. Looks like Ft. Myers could get a pretty good blow after all. The GFDL would be the model to watch here on out. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Scorpion · #3750 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:57 pm

chris_fit wrote:GFDL has a 100knot hurricane basically over my home in Palm Bay

Actually those 100 kt worst winds would be in my area or south.

cinlfla · #3751 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:58 pm

chris_fit wrote:GFDL has a 100knot hurricane basically over my home in Palm Bay

Thats not good :yayaya:

SunnyThoughts · #3752 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:01 pm

She sure looks as though she'll be back out over water soon. Hopefully there will be some sheer, dry air..cooler sst's ..something to keep her from gaining too much strength. My best wishes to everyone in her path. Be prepared and stay safe

mtm4319 · #3753 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:04 pm

You have to multiply the winds on the GFDL animations by 0.8. It's around 96 knots at landfall, not 120 knots.

tampaflwx · #3754 Postby **tampaflwx** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:05 pm

krysof · #3755 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:07 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:She sure looks as though she'll be back out over water soon. Hopefully there will be some sheer, dry air..cooler sst's ..something to keep her from gaining too much strength. My best wishes to everyone in her path. Be prepared and stay safe

right now those factors will not impact it once it touches the waters, those factors will impact it as it nears florida and accelerates particulary the shear, it will go through the gulf loop current so the SST's won't be low enough to stop it from intensifying, it has dealt with dry air its whole life, and it just ignores it and fends it off unlike Katrina

Website · #3756 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:08 pm

tampaflwx wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1870/11/track.gif

What the heck? The track ends with it as a hurricane.

markymark8 · #3757 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:09 pm

Wilmas eye is just about offshore Mark Sudduth just confirmed on hurricane live net. We got a 105mph hurricane it seems about to go offshore any minute. Hopefully she can be sheared apart on her way to the sunshine state.

artist · #3758 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:09 pm

anyone else having trouble with the goes site? haven't been able to get in for the last hour!

chris_fit · #3759 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:12 pm

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

artist · #3760 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:14 pm

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Who is online