Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Myersgirl]

not sure, but I think that bites for Fort Misery

[markymark8]

Mark Sudduth just confirmed now by seeing his latest satellite frames that the center has now just jogged offshore and is showing just a little more motion so in other words she is not stationary. She seems to be wanting to pick up the pace. Watches and Warnings should go out earlier than expected if she is making her move.

[krysof]

I have a feeling Wilma will be a powerful extratropical monster effecting the entire EC with TS winds at least.

[CronkPSU]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

[cjrciadt]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

Yeah at least Cat1 winds possible in Central FL now?

[brunota2003]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

BAMD Has it hitting the Outer Banks!!! Uh Oh... Ditto here, HOLY CRAP!!!

[krysof]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

BAMD Has it hitting the Outer Banks!!! Uh Oh... Ditto here, HOLY CRAP!!!

remember that once it nears Florida its wind field will expand, and as it transititions into an extratropical storm, the TS wind field could be huge including the storm itself

[jkt21787]

IMPORTANT AND INTERESTING...12z GFS ENSEMBLES...The Operational GFS, which we all saw today already, is the "AVNO". Notice ALL of the Ensemble Members (which usually prove better or as good as the OP GFS)or ALL SOUTH OF THE OP GFS!!!

South FL is Still the Target by far...

[TampaFl]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

Yeah at least Cat1 winds possible in Central FL now?

FXUS62 KTBW 221810
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA AND THE END OF SUMMER ARE NOW ON THE WAY...
...ROUGH WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HAVE THE SWEATERS
READY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...WELL HERE WE GO. WILMA WAS SPINNING
SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN VERY NEAR CANCUN...
WEAKENED BUT STILL FORMIDABLE AS NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY THE STORM WAS
UNABLE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO CAMPECHE PROVINCE BUT RATHER HAS
REMAINED NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER TERRAIN...OF QUINTANA-ROO.

SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LIKELY
REGAIN CAT 3 STATUS FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND BEGINS THE ACCELERATION PROCESS.
THE ACCELERATION WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE
WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.

THERE IS GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING FOR A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE BAD NEWS IS THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHICH WOULD MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN A VERY IMPORTANT HAZARD: STORM SURGE.

ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...FOR AREAS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD TWO
HAZARD THREATS ARE REDUCED: STORM SURGE AND TORNADOES. IN FACT...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TIDES WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO...THE EVENT WILL LAST NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS...
PROBABLY 6 HOURS GIVEN THE RAPID ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
SUNCOAST...THOUGH QUICK...WILL BE QUITE WELCOME.

NOW THE BAD NEWS. FIRST...WILMA WILL LINK WITH A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES UP TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SO...FOR ALL
AREAS...EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE RANGING FROM LOOSE ITEMS BLOWN
AROUND AND TWIGS/LEAVES OFF TREES TO PERHAPS MODERATE (OR MORE)
DAMAGE LEVELS CLOSER TO THE STORM AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SHORELINES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. DETAILS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN A
LIKELY HURRICANE STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HOISTED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTLINE.

OTHER POTENTIALLY BAD NEWS IS THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...
WHICH IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE WITH
LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RUN
NOW BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA TO THE CHARLOTTE/SARASOTA COUNTY
LINE...ALL THE WHILE RACING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO BUY OFF ON A SINGLE MODEL RUN...THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS
FAILED YESTERDAY TO PICK UP ON THE PLAIN MOMENTUM OF THE STORM
TO CARRY IT ALONG THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN SHORELINE...ALONG WITH THE
GENERAL "LOOK" ON WATER VAPOR WHICH SHOWS THE MIDWESTERN U.S.
TROUGH ELONGATING TOWARD AN EAST-WEST POSITION NOW AND A CHANNEL THAT
SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO
THIS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND WORSE YET A TRUE "SURGE" OF WATER INTO LEE COUNTY
WOULD BE REALIZED. NOTE THAT THE SURGE WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A HIGHER HURRICANE CATEGORY GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE STORM AND
EXPANSION OF HIGH SEAS...COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION.

STAY TUNED AND REMAIN PREPARED.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER: TONIGHT SHOULD BE NON-DESCRIPT. ENOUGH
DRY AIR REMAINS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LULL...SCATTERED AT
BEST. NOT BUYING OFF ON GFS MUCH-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST GIVEN THE DRY AIR THERE NOW...BUT WILL
THROW A BONE WITH A SCATTERED SHOWER GRID (RATHER THAN ISOLATED).
ON SUNDAY...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ACTIVATE MORE LEGITIMATELY
AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINES WITH 250 MB JET ENERGY TO CRANK
UP THE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR FOR A
SEPARATE FLOOD WATCH SEGMENT MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS QUICKLY GO DOWNHILL EVERYWHERE. WILL ROLL
THE TCM GRIDS BUT TRY TO IMPLY "SHIFTING" WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO COUNTIES JUST IN CASE THIS GFS SOLUTION BEGINS TO GAIN TRACTION.
WILL WORD AS "RAIN AND SQUALLS" IN THE ZONES WITH DEFINITE RAINS
IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z/MON TO 15Z MON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
NAIL DOWN A BETTER EVEN BETTER TIMING THIS TIME SUNDAY.WINDS CONTINUE TO CRANK MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE CYCLONE WITH
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET AND FALLING TEMPERATURES AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES AT ALL LEVELS. FROM SUMMER TO DECEMBER IN A DAY!


.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - SATURDAY)...THIS PERIOD BEGINS...IN THEORY...
WITH WILMA OFF THE EAST FL COAST AND MOVING AWAY AS A FRONT SWEEPS IN
FROM THE NW AND MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY EARLY TUE. THIS FRONT
USHERS IN SOME CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING MAX/MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN WARMING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIP ENDS BY SUNRISE TUE WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL FRI AND SAT WHEN
AN APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE EAST RETURNS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL
PROVIDE ROBUST NW AND N WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WINDS EASE AND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY.


&&

.MARINE...PRETTY MUCH A NO-BRAINER WITH AN ACCELERATING HURRICANE
AND A COLD FRONT LINKING UP. RECENT COASTAL FORECAST GREATLY
ELEVATED THE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON SWELL...AND EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO HOLD AND PERHAPS BE MOVED UP A SMIDGE DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY WILMA GETS GOING. WILL ISSUE THE PRODUCT AROUND 2 PM
TO GET IT OUT...BUT EXPECT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND HURRICANE
WATCHES TO COVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 PM
TODAY. AFTER THE HURRICANE...THE COLD ADVECTION CRANKS IN EARNEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL SWITCH THE SWELL DIRECTION BUT
HOLD FAIRLY HIGH SEAS INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES INTO TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN.

&&


.AVIATION...SCATTERED BANDS OF RW...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM...
MOVING NORTH WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIG/VIS TO AOA 2000/3 DURING LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY...MONDAY WILL CARRY
VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES BUT HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE UP IN THE 45
TO 55 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN THE DAY THANKS TO COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 81 71 72 / 30 70 90 90
FMY 75 86 75 76 / 30 50 90 90
GIF 71 82 71 72 / 30 70 90 90
SRQ 73 83 73 75 / 30 50 90 90
BKV 69 79 66 69 / 40 70 90 90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

[brunota2003]

the NHC official forecast is now the southern outliner.

to steal a line....HOLY CRAP!!!

BAMD Has it hitting the Outer Banks!!! Uh Oh... Ditto here, HOLY CRAP!!!

remember that once it nears Florida its wind field will expand, and as it transititions into an extratropical storm, the TS wind field could be huge including the storm itself

Gee, thanks for reminding me... Maybe we will have a strong TS or Cat 1, not good *hides*

[AZS]

[CronkPSU]

to paraphrase Derek...GFS has been worth less than crap the last 2 seasons

[LAwxrgal]

Look at that cluster! To steal a line, Holy crap! Stay safe everybody in this monster's path!

[LAwxrgal]

Look at that cluster! To steal a line, Holy crap! Stay safe everybody in this monster's path!

[LAwxrgal]

Look at that cluster! To steal a line, Holy crap! Stay safe everybody in this monster's path!

[storms in NC]

Okay who said it would come off shore around Dinner time this morning?

[HURAKAN]

It will be interesting to see in the next few hours if it will respond to the warm waters or it's to late to reintensify.

[Typhoon]

The ARW model has been very aggressive on Wilma's intensity. The latest 00z run shows Wilma as a Cat 5 very near Florida, meaning that it must be a Cat 5 or strong Cat 4 model if this seemingly impossible scenario verified. Think this must be crazy? The ARW is a heavily touted new model developed by UCAR. It looks like it's a WRF-based 4km hurricane run. I think it's eventually slated to replace the GFDL.

[url=http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/hur/2005102200/hur_track.png]Hurricane track
[/url]
[url=http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane.php]Other graphics
[/url]

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR
DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 75 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.9N 86.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.9N 83.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 45.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 87.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Amanzi]

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM STATE ROAD 16 SOUTH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE BETTER THE
CHANCE OF SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE RAIN AND DRY AIR WILL BE VERY PRONOUNCED. HAVE SPENT
MOST OF THE DAY PULLING OUT MY HAIR TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE THAT
WILL BE. ONCE AGAIN TEND TO THINK THAT STATE ROAD 16 WILL LIKELY BE
THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS.

MONDAY...AS WILMA PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF US THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED AND THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES THE BETTER THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW WILL NOT PLACE ANY WATCHES IN
EFFECT BUT WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW ALONG OUR COAST WITH ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTY VALUES DOWN TO 4.1 INCHES FOR 6 HOURS. SO POOR DRAINAGE AREA
FLOODING IS VERY POSSIBLE IF THIS OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SITUATION INDEED DEVELOPS.

WILMA...SOME HURRICANE TRACKING SOFTWARE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR POTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA
FROM RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES/OCALA TO ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. AS LONG
AS THERE ISN'T A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO
THE NORTH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THOSE CONDITIONS FOR INLAND AREAS. THE
WIND RADII THE SOFTWARE USES ARE REFLECTING WINDS OVER MARINE
EXPOSURES AND WE HAVE TO ADJUST THEM DOWNWARD OVER LAND EXPOSURES.
FOR NOW WE EXPECT WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FROM RAINBOW LAKES
ESTATES/OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE SOUTHEASTWARD TO BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALONG THE...IMMEDIATE...COAST/INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD...A FEW
HOURS AT BEST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BEACH EROSION...TIDAL FLOODING AND HIGH
SURF WITH THIS EVENT. AGAIN THIS IS ASSUMING EVERYTHING STAYS ON
TRACK WITH TIMING AND ACTUAL TRACK. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK ON
WILMA FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WILMA RAPIDLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...
SWEATER WEATHER AND TIME TO THROW A LOG ON THE FIRE FOR MID-WEEK AS
THE FIRST REALLY COOL AIRMASS OF THE SEASON PAYS US A VISIT. LOW
TEMPS FOR TUE THROUGH THU LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AS WEEK PULL TOWARD LATE WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO PULL AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW CLOUDINESS ADVECTING
IN FROM THE OCEAN.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
HURRICANE WILMA PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS MONDAY. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE MONDAY AND COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WILMA PULLS AWAY.

You think we may have some very bald forecasters by the end of this season...